7 ms·

I do think the Apple/Google cut has been natural. The phone and successful app stores aren't accidents, they're endpoints in a long chain of work to focus consu

I do think the Apple/Google cut has been natural. The phone and successful app stores aren't accidents, they're endpoints in a long chain of work to focus consumer attention in a way that sells software. That said, these benefits have an expiration date. I don't think the app store cut has been a ripoff for its entire history, but if the temperature of the room has shifted toward hostility, it might be that they've spent the goodwill they earned with their innovation and now it's time for a more sustainable long term arrangement. We can find middle ground between "Apple did nothing for me" and "Apple deserves 30% of software sales for eternity"

tommymachine 8y ago
But to negotiate that, you have to be able to threaten them with leaving. And there's no other way to get iPhone users, who are by far the biggest spenders. And if you're going to go this route of web-only transactions, you're going to have some user drop-off and missed sales, it's just a question of how much. Like, where does it make sense to switch. If its 30% drop off it doesn't matter either way. If its 15% or 5%, you'd better do it. If it's 70%, no way in hell should you do it. And I can guarantee you that every app business will have a different number for this, and it's nearly impossible to know what the drop off is before making the jump. So many are not willing to leave, and here we are. Netflix has a strong multi-platform use case already, so it's a natural move for them. Other apps may not fair so well. I think losing these larger companies is somewhat inevitable as long as the rates stay this high. We'll see Apple fight to retain them, but it would be a real surprise to see them booted from the platform over the switch, since they are still adding value. And can you imagine the backlash over the even less fair solution: Apple decides to negotiate special rates for these behemoths (just to keep them honest) while charging upstart developers the full rate! That would cause even more outrage than the 30%!
- ocdtrekkie 8y ago
  It would be interesting if Netflix decided to straight up call Apple's bluff on their revenue restriction. Would Apple risk losing Netflix on the iPhone to enforce their rule about web signup links? Netflix is a ubiquitous expectation, and if it got delisted, Google and Samsung would have a field day talking about how you had to get an Android to get Netflix.
  - tommymachine 8y ago
    The answer is yes. They already fought with Spotify over this. Spotify had to clean up their game quite a bit to pass App Store review. Apple still has plenty of leverage. Being the highest grossing app on the platform is a double edged sword - and Netflix needs to be on iOS even more than Apple needs them to. But it's very unlikely that Apple would go so far as to delist Netflix. Apple will just reject the new updates until Netflix submits a version that plays by the rules. If Apple delisted an approved (live) version of any app based on something extra that turned up during review of a newer update, and the change wasn't in the live version, that would be unprecedented as far as I know, and likely an error that would be corrected promptly. And the Netflix user base is so big, there's almost no way that error would be allowed to happen.
    - dhimes 8y ago
      Why can Netflix just use the mobile browser? Are they allowing downloads for offline viewing? If they are only online streaming I see no reason at all to even have an app. Just a mobile web page. Can somebody enlighten me?
      - tommymachine 8y ago
        User experience is better in apps
        dhimes 8y ago
        In my experience it depends on the site and the app. Streaming vids seems like a perfect job for the browser.
        tommymachine 8y ago
        Agree but overall users seem to prefer apps versus browsers at a ratio of 9 to 1 (in terms of time spent in each medium) .
      - wgerard 8y ago
- r00fus 8y ago
  > And there's no other way to get iPhone users, who are by far the biggest spenders. Well, it's not like iPhone users can't simply buy Androids. I have mostly iOS household with a few Androids sitting around - mostly unpowered and gathering dust (kids use them mainly to watch Netflix on road trips). I think Netflix has a strong position to negotiate with Apple over this.
  - tommymachine 8y ago
    So you’re saying your think Netflix has a strong position due to you having a few android devices laying around for occasional Netflix use in addition to your iOS devices? To me, the argument that people will just buy cheap androids just for Netflix is like, ok maybe 5% will, so then Netflix only loses 95% of their iOS revenue by leaving the App Store. But it’s a completely moot point because it’s very unlikely that Netflix would do something to cause their app to be removed from the store. Like, its always going to be better to have 70% of iOS rev than 0%. It’s kind of like talking about what would happen if Russia nuked the US. Its true that both companies have a strong position. Netflix just doesn’t have quite as much leverage in theirs. They’ll be allowed to move the purchase off the App Store just like Amazon / Spotify have done, so long as they don’t link to it directly from the app. The question that remains is when will smaller apps start to follow suit, and will they be able to get away with what Netflix / Amazon / Spotify do, and what will be the effect of this pressure? It’s hard for an unknown developer to say “hey, actually, go to my website to do this and heh, sorry but, I can’t link you there!” But for behemoths, it’s almost trivial to do so. There will still be user drop off there even for behemoths, just likely not as bad.
- roasm 8y ago
  I'm sure it would cause outrage, but I can definitely imagine a negotiation happening. It's in both Apple and Netflix's best interest to stay together. The rest is just negotiating a percentage that works. Of course, there is no way they would use that negotiated the percentage for the rest of us. I think it would take an anti-trust action of some sort to cause a dent here, but I'm not holding my breath.

tommymachine 8y ago

But to negotiate that, you have to be able to threaten them with leaving. And there's no other way to get iPhone users, who are by far the biggest spenders. And if you're going to go this route of web-only transactions, you're going to have some user drop-off and missed sales, it's just a question of how much. Like, where does it make sense to switch. If its 30% drop off it doesn't matter either way. If its 15% or 5%, you'd better do it. If it's 70%, no way in hell should you do it. And I can guarantee you that every app business will have a different number for this, and it's nearly impossible to know what the drop off is before making the jump. So many are not willing to leave, and here we are. Netflix has a strong multi-platform use case already, so it's a natural move for them. Other apps may not fair so well. I think losing these larger companies is somewhat inevitable as long as the rates stay this high. We'll see Apple fight to retain them, but it would be a real surprise to see them booted from the platform over the switch, since they are still adding value. And can you imagine the backlash over the even less fair solution: Apple decides to negotiate special rates for these behemoths (just to keep them honest) while charging upstart developers the full rate! That would cause even more outrage than the 30%!

ocdtrekkie 8y ago
It would be interesting if Netflix decided to straight up call Apple's bluff on their revenue restriction. Would Apple risk losing Netflix on the iPhone to enforce their rule about web signup links? Netflix is a ubiquitous expectation, and if it got delisted, Google and Samsung would have a field day talking about how you had to get an Android to get Netflix.
- tommymachine 8y ago
  The answer is yes. They already fought with Spotify over this. Spotify had to clean up their game quite a bit to pass App Store review. Apple still has plenty of leverage. Being the highest grossing app on the platform is a double edged sword - and Netflix needs to be on iOS even more than Apple needs them to. But it's very unlikely that Apple would go so far as to delist Netflix. Apple will just reject the new updates until Netflix submits a version that plays by the rules. If Apple delisted an approved (live) version of any app based on something extra that turned up during review of a newer update, and the change wasn't in the live version, that would be unprecedented as far as I know, and likely an error that would be corrected promptly. And the Netflix user base is so big, there's almost no way that error would be allowed to happen.
  - dhimes 8y ago
    Why can Netflix just use the mobile browser? Are they allowing downloads for offline viewing? If they are only online streaming I see no reason at all to even have an app. Just a mobile web page. Can somebody enlighten me?
    - tommymachine 8y ago
      User experience is better in apps
      - dhimes 8y ago
        In my experience it depends on the site and the app. Streaming vids seems like a perfect job for the browser.
        tommymachine 8y ago
        Agree but overall users seem to prefer apps versus browsers at a ratio of 9 to 1 (in terms of time spent in each medium) .
    - wgerard 8y ago
r00fus 8y ago
> And there's no other way to get iPhone users, who are by far the biggest spenders. Well, it's not like iPhone users can't simply buy Androids. I have mostly iOS household with a few Androids sitting around - mostly unpowered and gathering dust (kids use them mainly to watch Netflix on road trips). I think Netflix has a strong position to negotiate with Apple over this.
- tommymachine 8y ago
  So you’re saying your think Netflix has a strong position due to you having a few android devices laying around for occasional Netflix use in addition to your iOS devices? To me, the argument that people will just buy cheap androids just for Netflix is like, ok maybe 5% will, so then Netflix only loses 95% of their iOS revenue by leaving the App Store. But it’s a completely moot point because it’s very unlikely that Netflix would do something to cause their app to be removed from the store. Like, its always going to be better to have 70% of iOS rev than 0%. It’s kind of like talking about what would happen if Russia nuked the US. Its true that both companies have a strong position. Netflix just doesn’t have quite as much leverage in theirs. They’ll be allowed to move the purchase off the App Store just like Amazon / Spotify have done, so long as they don’t link to it directly from the app. The question that remains is when will smaller apps start to follow suit, and will they be able to get away with what Netflix / Amazon / Spotify do, and what will be the effect of this pressure? It’s hard for an unknown developer to say “hey, actually, go to my website to do this and heh, sorry but, I can’t link you there!” But for behemoths, it’s almost trivial to do so. There will still be user drop off there even for behemoths, just likely not as bad.
roasm 8y ago
I'm sure it would cause outrage, but I can definitely imagine a negotiation happening. It's in both Apple and Netflix's best interest to stay together. The rest is just negotiating a percentage that works. Of course, there is no way they would use that negotiated the percentage for the rest of us. I think it would take an anti-trust action of some sort to cause a dent here, but I'm not holding my breath.