4 ms·

Your basic argument is just not solid, sorry. You're pointing out that one variable in the Drake equation is large and admitting that we literally have __no clu

Your basic argument is just not solid, sorry. You're pointing out that one variable in the Drake equation is large and admitting that we literally have __no clue__ about several others. No clue means no clue, we don't know the mechanism by which they happened. They could under present knowledge turn out to be precisely as small as space is big, or even smaller. The "space is big argument" is not good but hopefully it leads you down the rabbit hole of more interesting arguments. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

Razengan 8y ago
Honestly, the Drake Equation, Fermi Paradox etc. feel like "One-eyed kings in the land of the blind" type of reasoning. The "otherwise we should have met someone by now" is an absurdly weak criteria, given the distances and timelines involved. –––– We know that life and intelligence are possible and that there are plenty of places for them to occur on: We know the universe must be practically infinite. [0] We know there must be practically infinite planets (here "infinite" being a substitute for trillions upon trillions.) [1] multiplied by [0] We know that even lifeforms on the same planet may never come into contact with each other. [2] We know that intelligent lifeforms can decide to leave other intelligent lifeforms alone. [3] We know life can take forms that do not occur naturally on Earth. [4][5][6] We know intelligence can take forms that do not resemble human intelligence. [7] We know that lifeforms do not require humanoid bodies to be able to use tools. [8] We know we don't have the technology necessary to conclusively detect life at distances beyond 2-3 planets adjacent to our own. We know we don't have the technology necessary to disprove life – present or past – on other planets. There is more evidence to support extraterrestrial intelligence than there is to infer that this is the only planet to harbor intelligent life. –––– [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinosaur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinosaur [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemi... [5] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20906-life-like-cells-are-made-of-metal/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20906-life-like-cells... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_organism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_organism [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octopus#Intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octopus#Intelligence
- xamuel 8y ago
  Terms like "practically infinite" are meaningless (my finger is practically infinite from an atomic perspective). We don't strictly "know" hardly anything about our universe, rather we have certain models which make predictions which have so-far not been falsified. Drake equation, Fermi paradox, etc., fall under the umbrella of philosophical speculation. They aren't proper science until they make concrete predictions that we can test experimentally.

Razengan 8y ago

Honestly, the Drake Equation, Fermi Paradox etc. feel like "One-eyed kings in the land of the blind" type of reasoning. The "otherwise we should have met someone by now" is an absurdly weak criteria, given the distances and timelines involved. –––– We know that life and intelligence are possible and that there are plenty of places for them to occur on: We know the universe must be practically infinite. [0] We know there must be practically infinite planets (here "infinite" being a substitute for trillions upon trillions.) [1] multiplied by [0] We know that even lifeforms on the same planet may never come into contact with each other. [2] We know that intelligent lifeforms can decide to leave other intelligent lifeforms alone. [3] We know life can take forms that do not occur naturally on Earth. [4][5][6] We know intelligence can take forms that do not resemble human intelligence. [7] We know that lifeforms do not require humanoid bodies to be able to use tools. [8] We know we don't have the technology necessary to conclusively detect life at distances beyond 2-3 planets adjacent to our own. We know we don't have the technology necessary to disprove life – present or past – on other planets. There is more evidence to support extraterrestrial intelligence than there is to infer that this is the only planet to harbor intelligent life. –––– [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinosaur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinosaur [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemi... [5] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20906-life-like-cells-are-made-of-metal/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20906-life-like-cells... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_organism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_organism [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octopus#Intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octopus#Intelligence

xamuel 8y ago
Terms like "practically infinite" are meaningless (my finger is practically infinite from an atomic perspective). We don't strictly "know" hardly anything about our universe, rather we have certain models which make predictions which have so-far not been falsified. Drake equation, Fermi paradox, etc., fall under the umbrella of philosophical speculation. They aren't proper science until they make concrete predictions that we can test experimentally.