6 ms·
I see you like predicting 10/3 recessions.
by conanbatt 8y ago
I see you like predicting 10/3 recessions.
- tabtab 8y agoI'm not following. It's Occam's Razor: what's more likely: A) We will set a record bull market & recovery duration, or B) We'll hit a recession soon. Further, the yield curve is also near an inversion, another common pattern preceding recessions.
- conanbatt 8y agoEven a broken clock is right twice a day.
- tabtab 8y agoVarious metrics have predicted the majority of slumps for about 100 years. That's like every hour, not "twice". I don't believe the pattern of slumps is random: it's roughly a decade cycle. Inverting yield curves, PE ratios above average (using long-term earnings), and bull market duration all point to a likely pattern.