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>and neither party is able to assume complete control over the territory. Do you believe PRC doesn't have enough military force to conquer Taiwan right now?

Apocryphon 8y ago
There's a difference between raw firepower and political, economic, social, etc. realities that complicate a military campaign.
- taobility 8y ago
  like when Russia invaded Crimea and how the rest world responded?
  - Apocryphon 8y ago
    I thought that Crimea might be brought up. In lieu of a full strategic assessment, which others are better qualified to deliver, I’ll spare you a longer response in favor of some quick points: 1. Unlike with Ukraine and Russia, Taiwan is not connected to China by land. Amphibious invasions are by default incredibly hard to pull off. China’s blue water fleet might not be up to the task yet. At least, not without sustaining a large amount of casualties over a period of time, which could lead to negative public opinion back at home and sapping the war effort- a non-military, political dimension as I mentioned. 2. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan’s political system is much more stable. The sort of widely-disputed election that led to the Euromaidan protests and the conflict does not seem to take place in Taiwan. The post-1949 waishengren are not analogous to the Donbass separatists; the PLAN can’t just sneak arms to them and expect them to rise up against the Taiwanese government. Like South Korea, Taiwan has a democracy that is prone to activism and demonstration, but is fundamentally viewed as legitimate. 3. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is more economically developed country. Among the many effects of that anything that affects it will have a larger affect on world markets than what happened to Ukraine. Of course, China is also much more tightly integrated into the global economy than Russia is, so it’s anyone’s guess as to if anyone will bother to sanction a militarily aggressive China. 4. Regardless of the current administration’s ambivalence towards its allies, the U.S. has had long-standing defensive commitments to protect Taiwan. The U.S. Seventh Fleet is right there. I’m not saying that China couldn’t wage an aggressive war against Taiwan, nor that they couldn’t win. I’m just saying that it’s a much more complicated situation- indeed, an unprecedented situation- that all us armchair speculators and latter-day Tom Clancy’s cannot foresee.
    - taobility 8y ago
      My point is, China has the absolute superior military force which could conquer Taiwan in few days, but China won't do that, as right now the situation between the strait is good for China, due to China's incrediable economic growth. Meanwhile, Taiwan government so desperate, as: 1. in economy, they are highly depends on mainland China 2. in politic, they can't setup normal relationship with other counties, and right now less and less countries would recognize them as an independent country so, China don't have any reason to invade them, meanwhile, Taiwan can't declare its independence as China plays more and more important role in global, so they can't afford the consequences in case their independent intention thorn mainland China.

Apocryphon 8y ago

There's a difference between raw firepower and political, economic, social, etc. realities that complicate a military campaign.

taobility 8y ago
like when Russia invaded Crimea and how the rest world responded?
- Apocryphon 8y ago
  I thought that Crimea might be brought up. In lieu of a full strategic assessment, which others are better qualified to deliver, I’ll spare you a longer response in favor of some quick points: 1. Unlike with Ukraine and Russia, Taiwan is not connected to China by land. Amphibious invasions are by default incredibly hard to pull off. China’s blue water fleet might not be up to the task yet. At least, not without sustaining a large amount of casualties over a period of time, which could lead to negative public opinion back at home and sapping the war effort- a non-military, political dimension as I mentioned. 2. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan’s political system is much more stable. The sort of widely-disputed election that led to the Euromaidan protests and the conflict does not seem to take place in Taiwan. The post-1949 waishengren are not analogous to the Donbass separatists; the PLAN can’t just sneak arms to them and expect them to rise up against the Taiwanese government. Like South Korea, Taiwan has a democracy that is prone to activism and demonstration, but is fundamentally viewed as legitimate. 3. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is more economically developed country. Among the many effects of that anything that affects it will have a larger affect on world markets than what happened to Ukraine. Of course, China is also much more tightly integrated into the global economy than Russia is, so it’s anyone’s guess as to if anyone will bother to sanction a militarily aggressive China. 4. Regardless of the current administration’s ambivalence towards its allies, the U.S. has had long-standing defensive commitments to protect Taiwan. The U.S. Seventh Fleet is right there. I’m not saying that China couldn’t wage an aggressive war against Taiwan, nor that they couldn’t win. I’m just saying that it’s a much more complicated situation- indeed, an unprecedented situation- that all us armchair speculators and latter-day Tom Clancy’s cannot foresee.
  - taobility 8y ago
    My point is, China has the absolute superior military force which could conquer Taiwan in few days, but China won't do that, as right now the situation between the strait is good for China, due to China's incrediable economic growth. Meanwhile, Taiwan government so desperate, as: 1. in economy, they are highly depends on mainland China 2. in politic, they can't setup normal relationship with other counties, and right now less and less countries would recognize them as an independent country so, China don't have any reason to invade them, meanwhile, Taiwan can't declare its independence as China plays more and more important role in global, so they can't afford the consequences in case their independent intention thorn mainland China.