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yep and it makes this statement rather suspicious:“Of the ~3500+ hedge funds out there, we track ~5% of them. We believe these are the good guys: long-term orie
by AznHisoka 8y ago
yep and it makes this statement rather suspicious:“Of the ~3500+ hedge funds out there, we track ~5% of them. We believe these are the good guys: long-term oriented and rigorous in their research.”
Its the 5% that performed well in their backtest, but that doesnt mean they will perform the best going forward.
What Titan did in 2016 was chose the top 5% of funds that did well up until that point. Then when they saw it performed bad in 2017, they most likely went back and chose a different 5% that did better. And recalculated all the returns.
The problem is you cant keep doing this once you actually start investing with real money.
- norswap 8y agoDo you have any evidence for any of this, or did you just pick the most uncharitable possible scenario and present it as factual?
- AznHisoka 8y agoThis is just all theory, of course but this is something most backtesters do, so I wouldnt rule it out. It helps to be overly skeptical when anyone claims to beat the index. Because it is such a powerful claim.
- neonate 8y agoYou said "What Titan did". That's a far cry from "I wouldn't rule it out".
- sseveran 8y agoThey should disclose how many backtests were run along with the methodology for evaluation. Backtests should be very rarely run.