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There won't be a war, by the way. I honestly think we're past the point as a species where superpowers duke it out in such a literal fashion. Even when physica
by stcredzero 8y ago
There won't be a war, by the way. I honestly think we're past the point as a species where superpowers duke it out in such a literal fashion.
Even when physical violence never occurs, it still fits into the geopolitical equation. So long as Taiwan continues to exist in a state of defacto independence, the US can act as a distant, only somewhat interested hegemon in opposition to local Chinese hegemony. Geography still dictates military strategy and power. So long as Taiwan remains a place to potentially base aircraft and ships, China can't credibly threaten and control the South China Sea. Taiwan itself is situated in relatively rough seas and has a rugged coastline which drastically restricts opportunities for a seaborne invasion. Invading Taiwan will take a supreme effort, smaller but in the same order of magnitude of the effort required to mount the D-Day invasion.
China's influence and dominance will happen through the private sector, ironically.
Thankfully.
They have their own versions of Google and Facebook: Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent.
I hope that the Great Firewall will be like the South China Sea. China may be influential, but the wells of culture run deep. Therefore the impetus for Japan and Korea to remain independent also runs deep and will remain strong.
Stratfor's "China's Geographic Challenge" --
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8uWoBtCkg8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8uWoBtCkg8