3 ms·

One slipup on twitter during an argument and and one incident where there is a question weather it is totally legal or not, lets wait for the ruling on that. Ov

by nickik 8y ago

One slipup on twitter during an argument and and one incident where there is a question weather it is totally legal or not, lets wait for the ruling on that. Overall his companies are doing fantastic.

xkjkls 8y ago
I'm not sure having only $1.3 billion in available cash, when you've been burning $700 million a quarter, and with $10 billion in debt is ever what someone would judge a company as "doing fantastic" on.
- nickik 8y ago
  Those are the wrong things to focus on, and its also only about Tesla. The important thing is that they are producing 8k cars a week and that will allow them to raise money if they really need it. Specially because they have 100'000s of reservations.
  - xkjkls 8y ago
    There's a lot to unpack here: * With the reservation numbers, sure, there are a large number of people who put down a refundable $1,000 for a $35K car with a $7,500 tax credit, but what is currently available is a $50K car with a rapidly expiring tax credit. I wouldn't call that proof of demand of the current product. * Can they raise money? If they can, why haven't they? There's no MBA1 who would ever recommend leaving a company in the cash position they currently are in. Also, you seem to be under the assumption that billions of dollars exist that can just immediately appear. That's not how the capital markets work. Money raises take many months of effort to materialize. * Also, as this article states the 8,000 cars a week metric might not be the best to focus on. Especially as a company that personally owns all the warranty liability for their cars, if 8,000 cars are being produced by cutting corners, that's not really the positive sign you would expect.
    - nickik 8y ago
      * Tesla sells well in places without a tax credit. * There is no reason to think that Tesla want be selling a 35k car * If 400000 preorders and the most talked about car in human history is not enough for you to prove that there is 'demand', I don't know how t oargue agianst that. * Of course they can raise money, and I think even most bears would agree that this is the case. They have not raised more money because they currently don't need to raise more money, if that changes, they can do so. Honest, people have been making doom and gloom prediction about Tesla 'cash position' for about 10 years and by now their actual cash inflow is growing massively. * If you had actual prove that those 8000 are all broken and a warranty liability then you might have point but up to now very little of these problems have materialized and the quality has gotten better over time
      - xkjkls 8y ago
        > Tesla sells well in places without a tax credit. Where? The biggest market is the US by far, and many other locations, like Canada, demand has dissolved without the tax credit. > There is no reason to think that Tesla want be selling a 35k car Other than the CEO once gave a large presentation two years ago selling it as a $35,000 car? And they raised capital multiple times under that premise? That seems pretty significant. > Of course they can raise money, and I think even most bears would agree that this is the case. They have not raised more money because they currently don't need to raise more money, if that changes, they can do so. Well, depends on what "raise money" means? Who is providing this capital and at what terms? Do I think Tesla could raise more debt at the 7-8% that it's debt is currently trading at? Sure, but that has a significant number of long term consequences raising debt at Michael Milken rates. > Honest, people have been making doom and gloom prediction about Tesla 'cash position' for about 10 years and by now their actual cash inflow is growing massively. I don't understand this at all. The company has never once been cash flow positive. What exactly do you mean by cash inflow and "cash position"? Also, Tesla was barely talked about until 5 years ago. Who are these people who are talking doom and gloom before the company went public in 2010? > If you had actual prove that those 8000 are all broken and a warranty liability then you might have point but up to now very little of these problems have materialized and the quality has gotten better over time The major problem here is that the company has had a number of instances being incompletely forthright with its metrics. That creates a pattern of distrust with how exactly to value the company. Any sort of financial projection of Tesla hinges completely on Model 3 margins. There's a growing concern of whether the company's quoted margins are accurate.

by nickik 8y ago

xkjkls 8y ago

I'm not sure having only $1.3 billion in available cash, when you've been burning $700 million a quarter, and with $10 billion in debt is ever what someone would judge a company as "doing fantastic" on.

nickik 8y ago
Those are the wrong things to focus on, and its also only about Tesla. The important thing is that they are producing 8k cars a week and that will allow them to raise money if they really need it. Specially because they have 100'000s of reservations.
- xkjkls 8y ago
  There's a lot to unpack here: * With the reservation numbers, sure, there are a large number of people who put down a refundable $1,000 for a $35K car with a $7,500 tax credit, but what is currently available is a $50K car with a rapidly expiring tax credit. I wouldn't call that proof of demand of the current product. * Can they raise money? If they can, why haven't they? There's no MBA1 who would ever recommend leaving a company in the cash position they currently are in. Also, you seem to be under the assumption that billions of dollars exist that can just immediately appear. That's not how the capital markets work. Money raises take many months of effort to materialize. * Also, as this article states the 8,000 cars a week metric might not be the best to focus on. Especially as a company that personally owns all the warranty liability for their cars, if 8,000 cars are being produced by cutting corners, that's not really the positive sign you would expect.
  - nickik 8y ago
    * Tesla sells well in places without a tax credit. * There is no reason to think that Tesla want be selling a 35k car * If 400000 preorders and the most talked about car in human history is not enough for you to prove that there is 'demand', I don't know how t oargue agianst that. * Of course they can raise money, and I think even most bears would agree that this is the case. They have not raised more money because they currently don't need to raise more money, if that changes, they can do so. Honest, people have been making doom and gloom prediction about Tesla 'cash position' for about 10 years and by now their actual cash inflow is growing massively. * If you had actual prove that those 8000 are all broken and a warranty liability then you might have point but up to now very little of these problems have materialized and the quality has gotten better over time
    - xkjkls 8y ago
      > Tesla sells well in places without a tax credit. Where? The biggest market is the US by far, and many other locations, like Canada, demand has dissolved without the tax credit. > There is no reason to think that Tesla want be selling a 35k car Other than the CEO once gave a large presentation two years ago selling it as a $35,000 car? And they raised capital multiple times under that premise? That seems pretty significant. > Of course they can raise money, and I think even most bears would agree that this is the case. They have not raised more money because they currently don't need to raise more money, if that changes, they can do so. Well, depends on what "raise money" means? Who is providing this capital and at what terms? Do I think Tesla could raise more debt at the 7-8% that it's debt is currently trading at? Sure, but that has a significant number of long term consequences raising debt at Michael Milken rates. > Honest, people have been making doom and gloom prediction about Tesla 'cash position' for about 10 years and by now their actual cash inflow is growing massively. I don't understand this at all. The company has never once been cash flow positive. What exactly do you mean by cash inflow and "cash position"? Also, Tesla was barely talked about until 5 years ago. Who are these people who are talking doom and gloom before the company went public in 2010? > If you had actual prove that those 8000 are all broken and a warranty liability then you might have point but up to now very little of these problems have materialized and the quality has gotten better over time The major problem here is that the company has had a number of instances being incompletely forthright with its metrics. That creates a pattern of distrust with how exactly to value the company. Any sort of financial projection of Tesla hinges completely on Model 3 margins. There's a growing concern of whether the company's quoted margins are accurate.