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OP and writer of the article here. Happy to provide more info on this topic if anyone is interested.

fspeech 8y ago
When did China become classified as "upper middle income"? What other countries are in the same category? And why should Mahathir get to call his country "poor" relative to China when Malaysia still has GDP per capita higher than China?
- alanwong 8y ago
  The World Bank stopped using a binary categorization of countries in 2016: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/opendata/2016-edition-world-development-indicators-out-three-features-you-won-t-want-miss https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/opendata/2016-edition-w... > Therefore, In WDI 2016, there is no longer a distinction between developing countries (defined in previous editions as low- and middle-income countries) and developed countries (previously high-income countries). Regional groupings (such as “East Asia”) are now based on geographical coverage rather than a sub-set of countries that were previously referred to as developing. In some occasional cases, where data availability or context have dictated it, we’ve excluded high income from some charts or tables, and we’ve indicated that in the footnotes. That's when it defined China as "upper middle income." That's based on Gross National Income per capita, as the World Bank calculated it. The thresholds are updated every year and adjusted for inflation. By the World Bank's definition, China was: low-income from 87-98 (except 97, when it was lower-middle) lower-middle from 99-09 upper-middle thereafter There are 56 upper-middle-income countries right now, out of 218 countries. Brazil, Kazakhstan, Libya, Malaysia, Cuba, Mexico are all upper-middle-income countries by the World Bank's latest definition.
- jmh42 8y ago
  > Why should Mahathir get to call his country "poor" relative to China...? A simple answer may be aggregates matter when it comes to country-to-country comparisons. A country's companies and government get 'strength' from the aggregate first.
  - jimmydef 8y ago
    This doesn't make sense at all. So are you saying that India or China is more developed than Singapore because their aggregate "strength" whatever that means is greater than Singapore?
    - jmh42 8y ago
      I didn't even use the word 'developed'. Nice try. ;) I simply mean if you are comparing countries, you need to look at aggregate figures, such as total GDP or market size or population. If one country has lower GDP than another, you could say it is "poor" on that basis, even if per capita GDP (a dis-aggregated figure) were higher. Taking your example, simply by population size and aggregate GDP and therefore ability to spend on military, India and China ARE stronger than Singapore.
    - dang 8y ago
      This comment breaks the site guidelines in at least a couple ways. If you would please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and follow the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.
  - fspeech 8y ago
    I understand the aggregate perspective. However this is not the standard usage of the word "poor".
Leary 8y ago
Is China in the middle income trap?
- alanwong 8y ago
  That's probably the literally trillion dollar question. I talked a bit about it with China scholars. The only thing they kind of agreed on is that it's a big question mark. China is confident that it can avoid the trap, though. Lou Jiwei, the former finance minister, famously said 2 years ago that China had a 50/50 chance of getting stuck at "middle income." But now as a head of a different government agency he recently said that he's confident that China will become a high-income country in a few years. That's probably something we should address in another article later.
- d2161 8y ago
  You don't know whether you are in the middle income trap without the benefit of hindsight. By that time it's too late. If China does move up the value added chain, it could lead to enormous wealth creation globally. For businesses and consumers. That's why I am dissatisfied at the whole America First mentality. It doesn't matter if it's China, India, South Africa or whatever country. Globalization benefits us all and we should support their development.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
wyattpeak 8y ago
Has the World Bank considered the question of whether or not GDP per capita is a relevant measure of the need for protectionism? The four-tier framework seems to address e.g. Bill Gates' comments about grouping China and the DRC, but it would still leave China in a tier below Western nations even though its ability to compete in global markets probably matches or surpasses many of them.
mirimir 8y ago
Where can I find the text? Edit: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:PDbj62VnSQMJ:https://www.inkstonenews.com/china/is-china-a-developed-country-long-and-better-answer/article/2160430&num=1&hl=en&gl=us&strip=1&vwsrc=0 https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:PDbj62...
contingencies 8y ago
Congratulations on the new gig and come visit us for a story next time you make it to Zhuhai :)
- alanwong 8y ago
  Hi thanks! Your business looks interesting, and close to me. Maybe after the bridge opens?

When did China become classified as "upper middle income"? What other countries are in the same category? And why should Mahathir get to call his country "poor" relative to China when Malaysia still has GDP per capita higher than China?

alanwong 8y ago
The World Bank stopped using a binary categorization of countries in 2016: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/opendata/2016-edition-world-development-indicators-out-three-features-you-won-t-want-miss https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/opendata/2016-edition-w... > Therefore, In WDI 2016, there is no longer a distinction between developing countries (defined in previous editions as low- and middle-income countries) and developed countries (previously high-income countries). Regional groupings (such as “East Asia”) are now based on geographical coverage rather than a sub-set of countries that were previously referred to as developing. In some occasional cases, where data availability or context have dictated it, we’ve excluded high income from some charts or tables, and we’ve indicated that in the footnotes. That's when it defined China as "upper middle income." That's based on Gross National Income per capita, as the World Bank calculated it. The thresholds are updated every year and adjusted for inflation. By the World Bank's definition, China was: low-income from 87-98 (except 97, when it was lower-middle) lower-middle from 99-09 upper-middle thereafter There are 56 upper-middle-income countries right now, out of 218 countries. Brazil, Kazakhstan, Libya, Malaysia, Cuba, Mexico are all upper-middle-income countries by the World Bank's latest definition.
jmh42 8y ago
> Why should Mahathir get to call his country "poor" relative to China...? A simple answer may be aggregates matter when it comes to country-to-country comparisons. A country's companies and government get 'strength' from the aggregate first.
- jimmydef 8y ago
  This doesn't make sense at all. So are you saying that India or China is more developed than Singapore because their aggregate "strength" whatever that means is greater than Singapore?
  - jmh42 8y ago
    I didn't even use the word 'developed'. Nice try. ;) I simply mean if you are comparing countries, you need to look at aggregate figures, such as total GDP or market size or population. If one country has lower GDP than another, you could say it is "poor" on that basis, even if per capita GDP (a dis-aggregated figure) were higher. Taking your example, simply by population size and aggregate GDP and therefore ability to spend on military, India and China ARE stronger than Singapore.
  - dang 8y ago
    This comment breaks the site guidelines in at least a couple ways. If you would please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and follow the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.
- fspeech 8y ago
  I understand the aggregate perspective. However this is not the standard usage of the word "poor".

Leary 8y ago

Is China in the middle income trap?

alanwong 8y ago
That's probably the literally trillion dollar question. I talked a bit about it with China scholars. The only thing they kind of agreed on is that it's a big question mark. China is confident that it can avoid the trap, though. Lou Jiwei, the former finance minister, famously said 2 years ago that China had a 50/50 chance of getting stuck at "middle income." But now as a head of a different government agency he recently said that he's confident that China will become a high-income country in a few years. That's probably something we should address in another article later.
d2161 8y ago
You don't know whether you are in the middle income trap without the benefit of hindsight. By that time it's too late. If China does move up the value added chain, it could lead to enormous wealth creation globally. For businesses and consumers. That's why I am dissatisfied at the whole America First mentality. It doesn't matter if it's China, India, South Africa or whatever country. Globalization benefits us all and we should support their development.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

wyattpeak 8y ago

Has the World Bank considered the question of whether or not GDP per capita is a relevant measure of the need for protectionism? The four-tier framework seems to address e.g. Bill Gates' comments about grouping China and the DRC, but it would still leave China in a tier below Western nations even though its ability to compete in global markets probably matches or surpasses many of them.

mirimir 8y ago

Where can I find the text? Edit: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:PDbj62VnSQMJ:https://www.inkstonenews.com/china/is-china-a-developed-country-long-and-better-answer/article/2160430&num=1&hl=en&gl=us&strip=1&vwsrc=0 https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:PDbj62...

contingencies 8y ago

Congratulations on the new gig and come visit us for a story next time you make it to Zhuhai :)

alanwong 8y ago
Hi thanks! Your business looks interesting, and close to me. Maybe after the bridge opens?