in NZ we have automatic rolling tax increase every year on tobacco, and we see the reduction and is well studied. We don't need to know absolutely the exact ca

in NZ we have automatic rolling tax increase every year on tobacco, and we see the reduction and is well studied. We don't need to know absolutely the exact causal link, we just need to know while in this configuration, this trend is happening. Maybe certain things aren't needed for that trend, but like you say, we don't have the capability of much experiementing, we can have a lot of robust debate and make our best educated guesses and try different things and see what happens.