> determine the conviction some people have about an outcome But in order to do that, wouldn't you also have to know a lot about those people? If you bet $1 a

> determine the conviction some people have about an outcome But in order to do that, wouldn't you also have to know a lot about those people? If you bet $1 and I bet $50 that could just mean I have a lot more money than you. Or for a million other reasons, I'm pretty likely to have not exactly 50x your conviction. I may even have less conviction than you. And even this is assuming good faith, because I might have reasons other than "winning" for placing my bet.