4 ms·

They would also have to return expropriated companies (at least in the food sector) and farms to their rightful owners. None of that would make up for all the

They would also have to return expropriated companies (at least in the food sector) and farms to their rightful owners. None of that would make up for all the lost equipment (to theft, to disuse, to misuse, to lack of maintenance). Nor would any of that encourage new investment (how can you trust that the government won't go back to its old bad ways?). Nor would it bring back all the population that has left for Colombia, Ecuador, and Brazil. But all of what you said and all of what I listed, together, would be a good start. It would also help a great deal to abandon all the violent rhetoric, allow truly free and fair elections, allow the opposition to win when they do, and so on and so forth. Argentina did all of what you said (well, they still have some subsidies), and it wasn't quite enough by itself. The primary budget deficit is still very large and the immediate driver of inflation there. Large welfare state + underdeveloped economy + expropriation == no trust/confidence. Or, how to destroy your country in just a few steps and a just few years.

scarmig 8y ago
Eh, "have to" is way too strong. If anything, simply stopping fucking things up more would allow for a lot of economic growth in a way that isn't nearly as heavy a lift as reversing everything that's happened in the past decade.
conanbatt 8y ago
Argentina has unfortunately not changed is monetary emision rates even though they claim to have chanced monetary policy. Argentina is headed for disaster because precisely, it admires Venezuela.
- cryptonector 8y ago
  Well, no, the current Argentine government decidedly does not admire Venezuela's model (the preceding government did admire Chavez/Maduro). Their problem is that to rein in inflation they must cut the welfare state way down, including a variety of subsidies (electric, ...). Removing those subsidies is known there as a "tarifazo", which means "massive rate increase", and has caused previous governments to fall, which is why the current government is so scared to do it. Macri's government hopes that they can slowly adjust things rather than go the shock therapy route -- if all goes well, it could work, but both approaches are risky, and it could all end badly again either way.
  - conanbatt 8y ago
    That’s the narrative but the results show still rampant inflation, still high government spending, and same monetary base expansion. The current government is economically very similar to the previous, and substituted hiperinflation with external debt
    - cryptonector 8y ago
      I mean, the Macri government is clearly not at all like the Fernandez government. The problems you list are real, and they are making mistakes as they always do, but the Fernandez govt really did want to go the way of Venezuela. The Macri government just doesn't have the oomph to push through the reforms they want -- whether for lack of seats in the congress or lack of conviction or fear of a repeat of 2001, I don't know.

scarmig 8y ago

Eh, "have to" is way too strong. If anything, simply stopping fucking things up more would allow for a lot of economic growth in a way that isn't nearly as heavy a lift as reversing everything that's happened in the past decade.

conanbatt 8y ago

Argentina has unfortunately not changed is monetary emision rates even though they claim to have chanced monetary policy. Argentina is headed for disaster because precisely, it admires Venezuela.

cryptonector 8y ago
Well, no, the current Argentine government decidedly does not admire Venezuela's model (the preceding government did admire Chavez/Maduro). Their problem is that to rein in inflation they must cut the welfare state way down, including a variety of subsidies (electric, ...). Removing those subsidies is known there as a "tarifazo", which means "massive rate increase", and has caused previous governments to fall, which is why the current government is so scared to do it. Macri's government hopes that they can slowly adjust things rather than go the shock therapy route -- if all goes well, it could work, but both approaches are risky, and it could all end badly again either way.
- conanbatt 8y ago
  That’s the narrative but the results show still rampant inflation, still high government spending, and same monetary base expansion. The current government is economically very similar to the previous, and substituted hiperinflation with external debt
  - cryptonector 8y ago
    I mean, the Macri government is clearly not at all like the Fernandez government. The problems you list are real, and they are making mistakes as they always do, but the Fernandez govt really did want to go the way of Venezuela. The Macri government just doesn't have the oomph to push through the reforms they want -- whether for lack of seats in the congress or lack of conviction or fear of a repeat of 2001, I don't know.