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"The rest of the world broadly agrees that China and Taiwan are the same country." No. The 'rest of the world' basically accepts that China and Taiwan are dif

"The rest of the world broadly agrees that China and Taiwan are the same country." No. The 'rest of the world' basically accepts that China and Taiwan are different countries, and would recognize Taiwan in a heartbeat if it were not for diplomatic issues.

graeme 8y ago
Those "diplomatic issues" were the entire point of my post. And my argument is that they're going to get worse, not better, over time, as China's regional and global position strengthens. I meant "broadly agrees" in the diplomatic sense. That's the main sense that matters for Taiwan. The US is the only country with any real measure if de facto support for Taiwan, and it is pulling back from Asia. This article lays out the strategic logic in more detail: https://nationalinterest.org/article/say-goodbye-taiwan-9931 https://nationalinterest.org/article/say-goodbye-taiwan-9931 (The author, John Mearsheimer, is a leading international relations theorist. In 1994 he may a similar prediction when Ukraine gave up its nukes: he said they would eventually be strategically vulnerable to Russian aggression)
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  I see your point, but I don't think they 'agree it's not a country', rather they 'agree they can't recognize it as a country', which is not a subtle difference.
  - graeme 8y ago
    I guess my orignal post wasn't very clear, but I did immediately follow the line about "not a country" with no recognition in the UN and no formal recognition. I'm sure most of the world would likewise reconize Hong Kong as a city state country in a heartbeat. But that is of near zero value for Hong Kong's long term prospects of independence from China. If the world can't recognize Taiwan now, then its prospects are even worse as China grows more regionally and economically powerful. This of course is even worse for the people of Taiwan in the future, as they will grow more and more used to independence as their position gets weaker and weaker.

graeme 8y ago

Those "diplomatic issues" were the entire point of my post. And my argument is that they're going to get worse, not better, over time, as China's regional and global position strengthens. I meant "broadly agrees" in the diplomatic sense. That's the main sense that matters for Taiwan. The US is the only country with any real measure if de facto support for Taiwan, and it is pulling back from Asia. This article lays out the strategic logic in more detail: https://nationalinterest.org/article/say-goodbye-taiwan-9931 https://nationalinterest.org/article/say-goodbye-taiwan-9931 (The author, John Mearsheimer, is a leading international relations theorist. In 1994 he may a similar prediction when Ukraine gave up its nukes: he said they would eventually be strategically vulnerable to Russian aggression)

sonnyblarney 8y ago
I see your point, but I don't think they 'agree it's not a country', rather they 'agree they can't recognize it as a country', which is not a subtle difference.
- graeme 8y ago
  I guess my orignal post wasn't very clear, but I did immediately follow the line about "not a country" with no recognition in the UN and no formal recognition. I'm sure most of the world would likewise reconize Hong Kong as a city state country in a heartbeat. But that is of near zero value for Hong Kong's long term prospects of independence from China. If the world can't recognize Taiwan now, then its prospects are even worse as China grows more regionally and economically powerful. This of course is even worse for the people of Taiwan in the future, as they will grow more and more used to independence as their position gets weaker and weaker.