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> Then again it’s also super easy to take a used car to get it checked out, but nobody does that either. Neither of these assertions is true. The second one is

by mmt 8y ago

> Then again it’s also super easy to take a used car to get it checked out, but nobody does that either. Neither of these assertions is true. The second one is easily falsified (even not being pedantic about "nobody"), as evidenced by the existence of "used car inspection" on the price lists of at least some mechanics, if anecdata is not compelling [1]. The first assertion is, in its falsity, makes for an excellent analogy to the topic at hand, which is evaluating developers. Even a legitimately trustworthy, expert evaluator will not be albe to provide an evaluation that will reliably predict real-world performance over the next several years. This is true for interviewing candidates and for used cars. What one hopes for from the evaluation, is to significantly reduce risk by filtering out obvious (for ones definition) dealbreakers. [1] Personally, I only buy used cars (and typically 8+ years 75k+ miles). The logistics of getting them to my mechanic for an inspection is the least easy part of the process, when it's a non-dealer seller.

user5994461 8y ago
I am surprised. Is it hard to get a car inspected in the US? In France, every used car sale must be accompanied by a recent inspection certificate. Go to any inspection center and they will do it easily for a fixed fee. Note that inspection centers can only offer inspections, no repair of any sort, to avoid the obvious conflict of interest.
- mmt 8y ago
  > Is it hard to get a car inspected in the US? That depends on the definition of "inspected". > recent inspection certificate What information is provided? Are there any details, or just that it passed inspection successfully? Details that are important to me are generally proxies for abuse or poor maintenance habits (e.g. cheap aftermarket parts), though sometimes they're merely an indication of what maintenance has or hasn't been done, in the absence of records (e.g. signs of age/crack on rubber parts). > Go to any inspection center This, already, makes it useless for me. I prefer a certain subset of car manufacturers, and I need an expert in the repair of that make of vehicle to adequately reduce my risk to tolerable levels. At the very least, as the buyer, I need to be able to choose the inspector, to avoid the obvious conflict of interest. > easily for a fixed fee This sounds remarkably like California's requirement for a recent "smog" certificate prior to a used car sale. It's a easy enough, but some sellers still don't do it. Other than avoiding a minor hassle and cost, it offers almost no benefit to the buyer. > only offer inspections, no repair of any sort, to avoid the obvious conflict of interest. This conflict would seem to exist only because it's chosen and paid for by the seller. As a buyer, I very much want the inspection to be done by a mechanic who is experienced in actually maintaining and repairing that particular vehicle.
  - user5994461 8y ago
    There are hundreds of details that are checked for. If any is not in good conditions, it's written down. If it's any important, you have to fix it and come back for a counter visit. Cracks would most certainly be part of it. You can choose where you do the inspection. There are a lot of choices, it's like repair shops, but specialized into inspection. It's done by a real mechanics and it's certified.
    - mmt 8y ago
      > If any is not in good conditions, it's written down. Having thoght about my own process, I realized that, even if all the relevant details are exhaustively documented in writing (which would be a huge waste of time/money), what's valuable to me is being able to talk to my mechanic about them. The written report is just a summary/highlights for me (and the seller) of topics that are either directly of concern, or, as I mentioned, proxy indicators for issues that are impossible to spot with an inspection. > If it's any important, you have to fix it and come back for a counter visit. That is something I most definitely do not want. If there's any major maintenance or repair to be done, I trust my choice of mechanic more than the seller's. I also very much don't want a forced repair to cover up how bad the situation had gotten previously. If the certification process doesn't include the full history, including failure/remediation, then it's a borderline scam. > Cracks would most certainly be part of it. And yet they aren't certain to be signal instead of noise. Context matters. Reading "surface cracks in timing belt and CV boots" is useless. Knowing the difference between the timing belt merely showing signs of age appropriate for the age/odometer reading of the car (and that it can be replaced on schedule) versus being shockingly old and could snap at any moment, possibly bending the valves (which varies by engine design, so even that context is important), is a hugely valuable indicator. > You can choose where you do the inspection. There are a lot of choices, it's like repair shops, but specialized into inspection. I, the buyer, can? You've made it sound like it's the seller doing the choosing. Do sellers end up with a stack of cerificates from different buyers' choices? > It's done by a real mechanics and it's certified. At the risk of sounding like a No True Scotsman argument, I'm skeptical. If these shops are employing their mechanics full time, and they only perform inspections, they're not real mechanics, for my purposes. Certification is meaningless, unless it provides the buyer with some kind of practical, monetary protection. So, yes, useful inspection, that allows me to buy used cars that have a predictable long-term maintenance/repair cost of USD0.12/mile is hard (in the sense of tedious and time consuming). An inspection that merely prevents me from being cheated and buying a total piece of junk (in some large number of cases) may be easy, and, though not totally useless, may be close, if it doesn't improve my chances beyond random luck.

by mmt 8y ago

user5994461 8y ago

I am surprised. Is it hard to get a car inspected in the US? In France, every used car sale must be accompanied by a recent inspection certificate. Go to any inspection center and they will do it easily for a fixed fee. Note that inspection centers can only offer inspections, no repair of any sort, to avoid the obvious conflict of interest.

mmt 8y ago
> Is it hard to get a car inspected in the US? That depends on the definition of "inspected". > recent inspection certificate What information is provided? Are there any details, or just that it passed inspection successfully? Details that are important to me are generally proxies for abuse or poor maintenance habits (e.g. cheap aftermarket parts), though sometimes they're merely an indication of what maintenance has or hasn't been done, in the absence of records (e.g. signs of age/crack on rubber parts). > Go to any inspection center This, already, makes it useless for me. I prefer a certain subset of car manufacturers, and I need an expert in the repair of that make of vehicle to adequately reduce my risk to tolerable levels. At the very least, as the buyer, I need to be able to choose the inspector, to avoid the obvious conflict of interest. > easily for a fixed fee This sounds remarkably like California's requirement for a recent "smog" certificate prior to a used car sale. It's a easy enough, but some sellers still don't do it. Other than avoiding a minor hassle and cost, it offers almost no benefit to the buyer. > only offer inspections, no repair of any sort, to avoid the obvious conflict of interest. This conflict would seem to exist only because it's chosen and paid for by the seller. As a buyer, I very much want the inspection to be done by a mechanic who is experienced in actually maintaining and repairing that particular vehicle.
- user5994461 8y ago
  There are hundreds of details that are checked for. If any is not in good conditions, it's written down. If it's any important, you have to fix it and come back for a counter visit. Cracks would most certainly be part of it. You can choose where you do the inspection. There are a lot of choices, it's like repair shops, but specialized into inspection. It's done by a real mechanics and it's certified.
  - mmt 8y ago
    > If any is not in good conditions, it's written down. Having thoght about my own process, I realized that, even if all the relevant details are exhaustively documented in writing (which would be a huge waste of time/money), what's valuable to me is being able to talk to my mechanic about them. The written report is just a summary/highlights for me (and the seller) of topics that are either directly of concern, or, as I mentioned, proxy indicators for issues that are impossible to spot with an inspection. > If it's any important, you have to fix it and come back for a counter visit. That is something I most definitely do not want. If there's any major maintenance or repair to be done, I trust my choice of mechanic more than the seller's. I also very much don't want a forced repair to cover up how bad the situation had gotten previously. If the certification process doesn't include the full history, including failure/remediation, then it's a borderline scam. > Cracks would most certainly be part of it. And yet they aren't certain to be signal instead of noise. Context matters. Reading "surface cracks in timing belt and CV boots" is useless. Knowing the difference between the timing belt merely showing signs of age appropriate for the age/odometer reading of the car (and that it can be replaced on schedule) versus being shockingly old and could snap at any moment, possibly bending the valves (which varies by engine design, so even that context is important), is a hugely valuable indicator. > You can choose where you do the inspection. There are a lot of choices, it's like repair shops, but specialized into inspection. I, the buyer, can? You've made it sound like it's the seller doing the choosing. Do sellers end up with a stack of cerificates from different buyers' choices? > It's done by a real mechanics and it's certified. At the risk of sounding like a No True Scotsman argument, I'm skeptical. If these shops are employing their mechanics full time, and they only perform inspections, they're not real mechanics, for my purposes. Certification is meaningless, unless it provides the buyer with some kind of practical, monetary protection. So, yes, useful inspection, that allows me to buy used cars that have a predictable long-term maintenance/repair cost of USD0.12/mile is hard (in the sense of tedious and time consuming). An inspection that merely prevents me from being cheated and buying a total piece of junk (in some large number of cases) may be easy, and, though not totally useless, may be close, if it doesn't improve my chances beyond random luck.