12 ms·

I believe that Taiwan will eventually merge with the mainland. Perhaps via the two-systems one China route that Hong Kong did. The claims of mainland China on

by skh 8y ago

I believe that Taiwan will eventually merge with the mainland. Perhaps via the two-systems one China route that Hong Kong did. The claims of mainland China on Taiwan are understandable and I don't fault them for their perspective on the issue. Is the United States really willing to go to war with China over this? I don't think so. Are Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines willing to go to war with China? China's desire for Taiwan far exceeds the willingness of others to fight them over it. This is especially so since China is taking the long range approach. They aren't going to outright invade Taiwan. It's akin to a death by a thousand cuts. Slowly, but surely, they inch their way to control.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
Retric 8y ago
Taiwan has a relatively strong military and while China would easily win any war, it would be crazy to fight it’s military.
- h4b4n3r0 8y ago
  As the past 60 years of US Military action have made abundantly clear, even for the best military on the planet by quite a margin no war is “easy” to win. Now, granted, China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do, but even then it’s not “easy”, especially if you plan to take permanent control of the territory afterwards. For that to happen, the overwhelming majority of the country has to _want_ such control, and the remaining people have to not be too heavily invested in the idea of independence. It’s pretty much the opposite of what you see in Taiwan.
  - tepidandroid 8y ago
    > Now, granted, China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do Please qualify this statement.
    - h4b4n3r0 8y ago
      What’s there to qualify? You think they’ll worry as much about civilian casualties or use precision weapons?
      - tepidandroid 8y ago
        It's funny because the situation you speak of with China is purely hypothetical while there are plenty (too many to count, really) modern day examples of the US military striking civilians all around the world. But hey, at least America has the decency to agonise over it, right? Very civilised indeed. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_from_U.S._drone_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_from_U.S._...
        h4b4n3r0 8y ago
        5% collateral casualty rate, while regrettable, is very, very low, comparatively speaking. And yes, I was discussing this in context of a purely theoretical invasion of Taiwan. That's the whole point.
        tepidandroid 8y ago
        Comparatively speaking to what? The 20% non-military fatality rate in the decade of bombing that preceded that particular year? Vietnam? Korea? To make a hand-wavy statement such as "China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do" makes it sound as though you think the collective American morality is somehow superior to that of the Chinese? I'm curious how one could come to such a conclusion while taking into account both recent and less recent history.
        lurquer 8y ago
        I wonder if China would treat the Tawainese civilians as gently as it treats its own? I suppose Tibet, Tianemnen, forced abortions, political prisoners, and the rest are just "hand-wavy" issues. Actually I do recall watching that one guy wave his hands a bit as he was run over by a tank in Tianemenn... or maybe it was twitching... can't recall.
- jonathankoren 8y ago
  It had a military advantage. It doesn’t anymore.[0] Taiwan has not been sold modern equipment, while China has increased military spending and operational capability. Being an island, Taiwan always had to rely on holding off an invading force for as long as possible. This historically meant until the US Navy could reinforce its defenses. Now with China’s anti access area denial strategy, this is becoming a less certain strategy.[1] [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/world/asia/china-taiwan-military.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/world/asia/china-taiwan-m... [1] https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/chinas-a2ad-challenge-in-the-south-china-sea-securing-the-air-from-the-ground/ https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/chinas-a2ad-challenge-in-the...
  - Retric 8y ago
    China has nuclear weapons, so in terms of total war the direct outcome is not in question. The issue is Taiwan is capable of putting up enough of a fight to make it loud internationally and painful domestically. The population does not want to join a poorly run country with 1/4th it’s per capita GDP. It would be able to retaliate and hit major Chinease cities making it an extremely expensive war etc etc. And after they won they would not have an prosperous nation just a huge and angry mess. PS: Most interestingly the people on the ground in Taiwan with the most information are scaling back military spending. So, presumably they believe the threat of war is minimal.
    - jonathankoren 8y ago
      Honestly. I don’t know where you’re getting your information. Given your out of date information, and a cavalier toss about using nuclear weapons, I don’t think you’re nearly as well informed as you think you are. FYI: China has a no-first use policy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_dest...
      - idra 8y ago
        Chinese policies (or laws, or contracts etc.) don’t mean anything
tsuabing 8y ago
I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. The current Chinese government has never ruled over the island. Not to mention most Taiwanese currently support independence, especially the young generations. Recent polls have come in around 70-80% of Taiwanese people believing they are 'taiwanese' and in no way associated with China. China is a big bully and a disgusting entity which keeps trying to write Taiwan off the international stage, via threats to businesses. Recently they were so petty, that when the president visited a bakery (85 degrees) in LA, they were so furious that they wanted the Taiwanese bakery to say that they are 'Taiwan, China'. So fucking ridiculous. Good thing they won't be able to take Taiwan militarily for a long long time. It's a heavily fortified island preparing for such an invasion for 50 years, and history has shown that rarely has any island invasion been successful, especially since China has such a weak military that has never seen real actions. The world is starting to see the ugly sides of China. And thank god. The Chinese government is horrible and needs to be reduced to irrelevance in the world stage.
- coldtea 8y ago
  >I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. Doesn't this answer your own question? 50 years are nothing in historical terms.
  - neya 8y ago
    By that logic, you could say the same for any country that has gotten its independence recently (say, Singapore)..
    - coldtea 8y ago
      That logic applies in context though, not as a blind rule. So, if those places had historical and cultural ties with other nations that go way back (like Chinese and Taiwanese people have), then yes, a recent split might not mean much for the legitimacy of a new country. If those places were merely occupied for centuries/millennia and "gotten their independence" then no. Heck, colonial powers designed and build states based on all kind of splits in existing peoples to "divide and conquer" them. Statehood comes and go, actual historical and national cultural ties are what's long lasting.
hkmurakami 8y ago
If the US doesn’t defend Taiwan, it will lose all credibility of mutual defense with its pacific allies. Japan will quickly develop nuclear weapons. That is not an outcome Washington wants.
- votepaunchy 8y ago
  Is this an outcome desirable for any Western power? Does Germany want Japan to be forced to go nuclear?
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
kamaal 8y ago
>>Is the United States really willing to go to war with China over this? I don't think so. Are Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines willing to go to war with China? China's desire for Ta As a non US citizen. What's this whole war obsession US people have? For a fraction of US's war expenses in Afghanistan and Middle East, China is building a state of the art economic network system(Silk Route) across the Eurasia and Africa. Making the co-operation across countries very easy. Trading and trade ties aren't exactly unethical or evil. I think it will do the US foreign policy a great deal of good if it didn't have a 'our way or the highway' attitude all the time.

by skh 8y ago

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

Retric 8y ago

Taiwan has a relatively strong military and while China would easily win any war, it would be crazy to fight it’s military.

h4b4n3r0 8y ago
As the past 60 years of US Military action have made abundantly clear, even for the best military on the planet by quite a margin no war is “easy” to win. Now, granted, China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do, but even then it’s not “easy”, especially if you plan to take permanent control of the territory afterwards. For that to happen, the overwhelming majority of the country has to _want_ such control, and the remaining people have to not be too heavily invested in the idea of independence. It’s pretty much the opposite of what you see in Taiwan.
- tepidandroid 8y ago
  > Now, granted, China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do Please qualify this statement.
  - h4b4n3r0 8y ago
    What’s there to qualify? You think they’ll worry as much about civilian casualties or use precision weapons?
    - tepidandroid 8y ago
      It's funny because the situation you speak of with China is purely hypothetical while there are plenty (too many to count, really) modern day examples of the US military striking civilians all around the world. But hey, at least America has the decency to agonise over it, right? Very civilised indeed. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_from_U.S._drone_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_from_U.S._...
      - h4b4n3r0 8y ago
        5% collateral casualty rate, while regrettable, is very, very low, comparatively speaking. And yes, I was discussing this in context of a purely theoretical invasion of Taiwan. That's the whole point.
        tepidandroid 8y ago
        Comparatively speaking to what? The 20% non-military fatality rate in the decade of bombing that preceded that particular year? Vietnam? Korea? To make a hand-wavy statement such as "China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do" makes it sound as though you think the collective American morality is somehow superior to that of the Chinese? I'm curious how one could come to such a conclusion while taking into account both recent and less recent history.
        lurquer 8y ago
        I wonder if China would treat the Tawainese civilians as gently as it treats its own? I suppose Tibet, Tianemnen, forced abortions, political prisoners, and the rest are just "hand-wavy" issues. Actually I do recall watching that one guy wave his hands a bit as he was run over by a tank in Tianemenn... or maybe it was twitching... can't recall.
jonathankoren 8y ago
It had a military advantage. It doesn’t anymore.[0] Taiwan has not been sold modern equipment, while China has increased military spending and operational capability. Being an island, Taiwan always had to rely on holding off an invading force for as long as possible. This historically meant until the US Navy could reinforce its defenses. Now with China’s anti access area denial strategy, this is becoming a less certain strategy.[1] [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/world/asia/china-taiwan-military.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/world/asia/china-taiwan-m... [1] https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/chinas-a2ad-challenge-in-the-south-china-sea-securing-the-air-from-the-ground/ https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/chinas-a2ad-challenge-in-the...
- Retric 8y ago
  China has nuclear weapons, so in terms of total war the direct outcome is not in question. The issue is Taiwan is capable of putting up enough of a fight to make it loud internationally and painful domestically. The population does not want to join a poorly run country with 1/4th it’s per capita GDP. It would be able to retaliate and hit major Chinease cities making it an extremely expensive war etc etc. And after they won they would not have an prosperous nation just a huge and angry mess. PS: Most interestingly the people on the ground in Taiwan with the most information are scaling back military spending. So, presumably they believe the threat of war is minimal.
  - jonathankoren 8y ago
    Honestly. I don’t know where you’re getting your information. Given your out of date information, and a cavalier toss about using nuclear weapons, I don’t think you’re nearly as well informed as you think you are. FYI: China has a no-first use policy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_dest...
    - idra 8y ago
      Chinese policies (or laws, or contracts etc.) don’t mean anything

tsuabing 8y ago

I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. The current Chinese government has never ruled over the island. Not to mention most Taiwanese currently support independence, especially the young generations. Recent polls have come in around 70-80% of Taiwanese people believing they are 'taiwanese' and in no way associated with China. China is a big bully and a disgusting entity which keeps trying to write Taiwan off the international stage, via threats to businesses. Recently they were so petty, that when the president visited a bakery (85 degrees) in LA, they were so furious that they wanted the Taiwanese bakery to say that they are 'Taiwan, China'. So fucking ridiculous. Good thing they won't be able to take Taiwan militarily for a long long time. It's a heavily fortified island preparing for such an invasion for 50 years, and history has shown that rarely has any island invasion been successful, especially since China has such a weak military that has never seen real actions. The world is starting to see the ugly sides of China. And thank god. The Chinese government is horrible and needs to be reduced to irrelevance in the world stage.

coldtea 8y ago
>I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. Doesn't this answer your own question? 50 years are nothing in historical terms.
- neya 8y ago
  By that logic, you could say the same for any country that has gotten its independence recently (say, Singapore)..
  - coldtea 8y ago
    That logic applies in context though, not as a blind rule. So, if those places had historical and cultural ties with other nations that go way back (like Chinese and Taiwanese people have), then yes, a recent split might not mean much for the legitimacy of a new country. If those places were merely occupied for centuries/millennia and "gotten their independence" then no. Heck, colonial powers designed and build states based on all kind of splits in existing peoples to "divide and conquer" them. Statehood comes and go, actual historical and national cultural ties are what's long lasting.

hkmurakami 8y ago

If the US doesn’t defend Taiwan, it will lose all credibility of mutual defense with its pacific allies. Japan will quickly develop nuclear weapons. That is not an outcome Washington wants.

votepaunchy 8y ago
Is this an outcome desirable for any Western power? Does Germany want Japan to be forced to go nuclear?

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

kamaal 8y ago

>>Is the United States really willing to go to war with China over this? I don't think so. Are Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines willing to go to war with China? China's desire for Ta As a non US citizen. What's this whole war obsession US people have? For a fraction of US's war expenses in Afghanistan and Middle East, China is building a state of the art economic network system(Silk Route) across the Eurasia and Africa. Making the co-operation across countries very easy. Trading and trade ties aren't exactly unethical or evil. I think it will do the US foreign policy a great deal of good if it didn't have a 'our way or the highway' attitude all the time.