3 ms·

Most greek government debt before the crisis was generated in the preeurozone era, between 1984 and 1990 - ~40%->~90% gdp. This happened before the euro was cre

by sgt101 8y ago

Most greek government debt before the crisis was generated in the preeurozone era, between 1984 and 1990 - ~40%->~90% gdp. This happened before the euro was created and before Greece joined. Private debt spiked in the Euro era - Banks ! This debt has been socialised by the aid packages, this would be fine if it was socialised across the eurozone, where the failure of supervision occurred and where the loot was stashed, but instead it's been loaded on a Greek economy that patently can't (and eventually won't) pay. What I believe is being hoped for is that by then there will be fiscal union and Greek debt will be manageable within that framework, until then, screw the Greek people. But be clear - the normal people of Greece were not responsible for this and their suffering is unjust.

candiodari 8y ago
Exactly ! I don't understand why people insult the Greek so much in this thread. Yes, the Greek state wasn't very correct, but you can make many arguments, say for example that it behaves MUCH better than the Italian state. But ... Germany can't punish Italy the same way, that would have caused a crash. Greece is a small player in the EU that got into trouble. Almost all small players got into trouble in the same period. Many big players got into trouble too (Italy and even France both had the same issue). Greece got destroyed, made an example of, because it was the first small player to face an acute cash problem (technically Italy was actually the first, but Italy can't be made an example of safely), the rest was saved ... Let's please just stop pretending there's anything just about this situation. Also: Greece (nor the other small players) will not recover: https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield Greece's economy is "growing" at 1.7%. Interest on it's 10Y debt (that it can't pay now) is 4.3% ... It's total debt level is pretty much 185%. That means that, on average, for Greece to save itself, taxes need to rise by 1.85 * (4.3% - 1.7%), or about 5% per year. 5% per year tax rise. With an economy, in a huge global boom, growing at 1.7%. So I'll just add to that : may God have mercy if there is even the mildest of recessions. And the thing the whole of the EU is ignoring that the basic problems of Greece are all EU wide. Of course, they still have more of a runway, but total inability to pay for social security and pensions is not exactly a problem of Greece alone ... And the demographic disaster playing out in Europe is absurdly bad. And despite the rhetoric coming out of Hungary, Europe as a whole already has net-negative immigration. All of Eastern Europe, not just Greece, is losing population at an absurd rate. Moldova went from 4 million people to ~2.6 registered people (there are reasons to suspect the real number is even lower than that). But despite all the complaining, immigration into Europe is drying up and will flip into net-emigration in a few years, unless something drastic changes. For "natives" there are absurd levels of emigration even in the richest of West-European countries. The Netherlands has been losing 1.2% per year of it's native Dutch for >10 years now, with the numbers slowly rising, currently just shy of 2% per year. When immigration dries up, which isn't too far away, that will be the net population growth in Europe. And there are 2 economic relationships that we can prove have held for thousands of years. Here's one: less people, less economy. Countrysides emptying out of people is no longer a problem faced by inner Spain exclusively, it's clearly visible in Wales, in Westphalen, in the Ardens, in Friesland ... it's everywhere and while it can't yet be described as catastrophic there (in Spain, it is catastrophic), it's rapidly getting worse and I simply don't see a realistic option of living there and neither does anyone I know. That's anecdotal, I know, and I sure hope that means it's wrong. But I fear it's not. The future is not bright for Europe. All of Europe will be Greek in something like 10-15 years.

by sgt101 8y ago

candiodari 8y ago

Exactly ! I don't understand why people insult the Greek so much in this thread. Yes, the Greek state wasn't very correct, but you can make many arguments, say for example that it behaves MUCH better than the Italian state. But ... Germany can't punish Italy the same way, that would have caused a crash. Greece is a small player in the EU that got into trouble. Almost all small players got into trouble in the same period. Many big players got into trouble too (Italy and even France both had the same issue). Greece got destroyed, made an example of, because it was the first small player to face an acute cash problem (technically Italy was actually the first, but Italy can't be made an example of safely), the rest was saved ... Let's please just stop pretending there's anything just about this situation. Also: Greece (nor the other small players) will not recover: https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield Greece's economy is "growing" at 1.7%. Interest on it's 10Y debt (that it can't pay now) is 4.3% ... It's total debt level is pretty much 185%. That means that, on average, for Greece to save itself, taxes need to rise by 1.85 * (4.3% - 1.7%), or about 5% per year. 5% per year tax rise. With an economy, in a huge global boom, growing at 1.7%. So I'll just add to that : may God have mercy if there is even the mildest of recessions. And the thing the whole of the EU is ignoring that the basic problems of Greece are all EU wide. Of course, they still have more of a runway, but total inability to pay for social security and pensions is not exactly a problem of Greece alone ... And the demographic disaster playing out in Europe is absurdly bad. And despite the rhetoric coming out of Hungary, Europe as a whole already has net-negative immigration. All of Eastern Europe, not just Greece, is losing population at an absurd rate. Moldova went from 4 million people to ~2.6 registered people (there are reasons to suspect the real number is even lower than that). But despite all the complaining, immigration into Europe is drying up and will flip into net-emigration in a few years, unless something drastic changes. For "natives" there are absurd levels of emigration even in the richest of West-European countries. The Netherlands has been losing 1.2% per year of it's native Dutch for >10 years now, with the numbers slowly rising, currently just shy of 2% per year. When immigration dries up, which isn't too far away, that will be the net population growth in Europe. And there are 2 economic relationships that we can prove have held for thousands of years. Here's one: less people, less economy. Countrysides emptying out of people is no longer a problem faced by inner Spain exclusively, it's clearly visible in Wales, in Westphalen, in the Ardens, in Friesland ... it's everywhere and while it can't yet be described as catastrophic there (in Spain, it is catastrophic), it's rapidly getting worse and I simply don't see a realistic option of living there and neither does anyone I know. That's anecdotal, I know, and I sure hope that means it's wrong. But I fear it's not. The future is not bright for Europe. All of Europe will be Greek in something like 10-15 years.