4 ms·

'Science as the Enemy': The Traveling Salesmen of Climate Skepticism

12 points by blasdel 16y ago

hga 16y ago
It's my understanding that the EPA's 1993 study on second hand smoke was only able to achieve its desired result by redefining the previously accepted statistical threshold of "scientific truth". If that's indeed the case (I don't know or exactly care, since I'm just plain allergic to it) then calling it "junk science" is only speaking the truth. I only skimmed this article; I sure hope it doesn't try to deny that a lot of science, and most especially a lot of medical science, is highly politicized and often just plain wrong. If you've been following Official Truth on fats for the last 4 decades as I have you can discern for yourself that something is seriously amiss. Worse, if the people who excessively slammed fats pushed people to carbohydrates and thus diabetes (I think this is only speculation now, but it's hopefully getting a serious look) then they have a lot to answer for. Heck, how about the previous US Official Truth that babies should be placed on their stomach for sleep. Oops, that may have had a significant effect on SIDS: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_to_sleep http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_to_sleep
- philwelch 16y ago
  the previously accepted statistical threshold of "scientific truth" This concept heartily amuses me. Care to say more?
  - hga 16y ago
    I think it was a meta-analysis (a study using multiple original studies) and I recall 95% being a number of significance. As in it was either the previous or new, improved and of course lower threshold of "truth" (or rather statistical significance or whatever). I'm going by a 2nd or 3rd hand report, but the reported details are simple and easily falsifiable. (ADDED: Or maybe it's 90% and they used 85%??? Anyway, that should give you enough to search on if you want to follow it up.) Epidemiology is hard. When it's about a politicized topic (and almost all are nowadays) I've learned to just not pay much attention to any one study, at least until others have a chance to tear it apart.
rick888 16y ago
"A handful of US scientists have made names for themselves by casting doubt on global warming research. In the past, the same people have also downplayed the dangers of passive smoking, acid rain and the ozone hole. In all cases, the tactics are the same: Spread doubt and claim it's too soon to take action." Global warming (global cooling, climate change) is starting to sound like a religion. I always start to question things when: 1) It's about the money. The same people that claim that global warming is a problem are also invested in carbon credits (including Al Gore). Not to mention the fact that governments use it to fill their pockets with billions of dollars in tax revenue (we need a TV, radion, and Human tax because we emit carbon dioxide). 2) Any scientist that even hints at mis-information regarding global warming (and backs it up with stats) is immediately attacked and discredited. 3) Those emails that circulated were pretty damning, yet supports still won't believe it. They falsified information and many universities and organizations came out (before anyone investigated) to admit that yes, they were also using this info. "With his sonorous voice, Fred Singer, 86, sounded like a grandfather explaining the obvious to a dim-witted child." For a minute, I thought this article was on the onion.com
- kingkawn 16y ago
  Gore's investment in carbon credits was originally part of him trying to put his money where his mouth was, not just pull a fast one on everyone. But you can always find a devil if you look long enough.
  - lzw 16y ago
    He invested in a firm whose purpose is in trading a security that has no value currently, but which will be immensely valuable if the government passes laws requiring people to buy them... and for which Al Gore is actively campaigning to get government to pass said laws. This is the very essence of corruption.
    - kingkawn 16y ago
      You're intentionally confusing the genesis of his interest in the topic with the timeline of his investments to make your point. It has nothing to do with corruption. He has publicly discussed his business interests, they are common knowledge, and he is in part using it a case study for the good economic opportunities behind sustainable technology and policy. Corruption is pushing for changes that benefit you without acknowledging it, or obscuring your intentions.
drndown2007 16y ago
"97 percent of all climatologists worldwide __assume__ that greenhouse gases produced by humans are warming the Earth"
lionhearted 16y ago
> According to a US study, 97 percent of all climatologists worldwide assume that greenhouse gases produced by humans are warming the Earth. This is a lot like saying "97 percent of all feminists believe that patriarchal oppression is holding women back." You don't go into climatology unless you think it's a big deal. See, I think global warming (1) exists, (2) is a mix of man made and natural cycles, (3) is not a big deal at all. Apocalyptic global warming just seems obviously false based on everything I've looked at. Now, perhaps I'm mistaken. I didn't make this comment to argue the case - what I wanted is to point out that because my layman's understanding is that it's not a big deal, I don't go into the field. You'd expect anyone in the field to think it's a big deal.
kiba 16y ago
I hate politics. They muck up everything and make it hard for me to learn the truth. Right now, I am inclined to be suspicious of global warming folks, especially the extreme apocalyptic alarmist version. I am apt to believe that global warming will be good for some people and bad for some people. However, when it is uniformity bad. Something is wrong. I also dislike oil interests getting energy subsidy, or refinery cannot be built, and stuff like that. I knew that the higher price of oil will drive technological research for energy efficient. I also thought the current pollution and emission crisis? have much to do with the government building roads all over the place, encouraging automotive usage instead of letting transportation evolved naturally. Something is wrong with this debate. Especially if people are calling others unscientific for adherence to one side of the debate. This is not the bible contradicting the words of evolution, people.
RK 16y ago
I really don't like the recent conflation of contrarianism with skepticism. Skepticism should be the default stance of all scientists. That does not mean that their conclusions will be at odds with the initial idea simply because they are skeptical.

12 points by blasdel 16y ago

hga 16y ago

It's my understanding that the EPA's 1993 study on second hand smoke was only able to achieve its desired result by redefining the previously accepted statistical threshold of "scientific truth". If that's indeed the case (I don't know or exactly care, since I'm just plain allergic to it) then calling it "junk science" is only speaking the truth. I only skimmed this article; I sure hope it doesn't try to deny that a lot of science, and most especially a lot of medical science, is highly politicized and often just plain wrong. If you've been following Official Truth on fats for the last 4 decades as I have you can discern for yourself that something is seriously amiss. Worse, if the people who excessively slammed fats pushed people to carbohydrates and thus diabetes (I think this is only speculation now, but it's hopefully getting a serious look) then they have a lot to answer for. Heck, how about the previous US Official Truth that babies should be placed on their stomach for sleep. Oops, that may have had a significant effect on SIDS: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_to_sleep http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_to_sleep

philwelch 16y ago
the previously accepted statistical threshold of "scientific truth" This concept heartily amuses me. Care to say more?
- hga 16y ago
  I think it was a meta-analysis (a study using multiple original studies) and I recall 95% being a number of significance. As in it was either the previous or new, improved and of course lower threshold of "truth" (or rather statistical significance or whatever). I'm going by a 2nd or 3rd hand report, but the reported details are simple and easily falsifiable. (ADDED: Or maybe it's 90% and they used 85%??? Anyway, that should give you enough to search on if you want to follow it up.) Epidemiology is hard. When it's about a politicized topic (and almost all are nowadays) I've learned to just not pay much attention to any one study, at least until others have a chance to tear it apart.

rick888 16y ago

"A handful of US scientists have made names for themselves by casting doubt on global warming research. In the past, the same people have also downplayed the dangers of passive smoking, acid rain and the ozone hole. In all cases, the tactics are the same: Spread doubt and claim it's too soon to take action." Global warming (global cooling, climate change) is starting to sound like a religion. I always start to question things when: 1) It's about the money. The same people that claim that global warming is a problem are also invested in carbon credits (including Al Gore). Not to mention the fact that governments use it to fill their pockets with billions of dollars in tax revenue (we need a TV, radion, and Human tax because we emit carbon dioxide). 2) Any scientist that even hints at mis-information regarding global warming (and backs it up with stats) is immediately attacked and discredited. 3) Those emails that circulated were pretty damning, yet supports still won't believe it. They falsified information and many universities and organizations came out (before anyone investigated) to admit that yes, they were also using this info. "With his sonorous voice, Fred Singer, 86, sounded like a grandfather explaining the obvious to a dim-witted child." For a minute, I thought this article was on the onion.com

kingkawn 16y ago
Gore's investment in carbon credits was originally part of him trying to put his money where his mouth was, not just pull a fast one on everyone. But you can always find a devil if you look long enough.
- lzw 16y ago
  He invested in a firm whose purpose is in trading a security that has no value currently, but which will be immensely valuable if the government passes laws requiring people to buy them... and for which Al Gore is actively campaigning to get government to pass said laws. This is the very essence of corruption.
  - kingkawn 16y ago
    You're intentionally confusing the genesis of his interest in the topic with the timeline of his investments to make your point. It has nothing to do with corruption. He has publicly discussed his business interests, they are common knowledge, and he is in part using it a case study for the good economic opportunities behind sustainable technology and policy. Corruption is pushing for changes that benefit you without acknowledging it, or obscuring your intentions.

drndown2007 16y ago

"97 percent of all climatologists worldwide __assume__ that greenhouse gases produced by humans are warming the Earth"

lionhearted 16y ago

> According to a US study, 97 percent of all climatologists worldwide assume that greenhouse gases produced by humans are warming the Earth. This is a lot like saying "97 percent of all feminists believe that patriarchal oppression is holding women back." You don't go into climatology unless you think it's a big deal. See, I think global warming (1) exists, (2) is a mix of man made and natural cycles, (3) is not a big deal at all. Apocalyptic global warming just seems obviously false based on everything I've looked at. Now, perhaps I'm mistaken. I didn't make this comment to argue the case - what I wanted is to point out that because my layman's understanding is that it's not a big deal, I don't go into the field. You'd expect anyone in the field to think it's a big deal.

kiba 16y ago

I hate politics. They muck up everything and make it hard for me to learn the truth. Right now, I am inclined to be suspicious of global warming folks, especially the extreme apocalyptic alarmist version. I am apt to believe that global warming will be good for some people and bad for some people. However, when it is uniformity bad. Something is wrong. I also dislike oil interests getting energy subsidy, or refinery cannot be built, and stuff like that. I knew that the higher price of oil will drive technological research for energy efficient. I also thought the current pollution and emission crisis? have much to do with the government building roads all over the place, encouraging automotive usage instead of letting transportation evolved naturally. Something is wrong with this debate. Especially if people are calling others unscientific for adherence to one side of the debate. This is not the bible contradicting the words of evolution, people.

RK 16y ago

I really don't like the recent conflation of contrarianism with skepticism. Skepticism should be the default stance of all scientists. That does not mean that their conclusions will be at odds with the initial idea simply because they are skeptical.