4 ms·
I'd like to take this opportunity to remind everyone here both of the replication crisis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis https://en.wikipedia.
by pure-awesome 8y ago
I'd like to take this opportunity to remind everyone here both of the replication crisis:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis
and of hindsight bias:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias
I see quite a few comments of people looking at the result and trying to come up with explanations for why it might hold. Heck, there even seems to be some confusion with the term "bullshit-receptivity" (and "bullshit-sensitivity"), which means that, even if the paper is valid, you might be drawing the opposite conclusion.
I'd like you to imagine, without going back to check right now, that you are wrong about the result. That they've found the opposite correlation to the one you thought holds. Can you find a reason why it would? Does it seem justifiable, explainable? As much so as your original belief? That should be a warning sign that your explanation might be a bit pre-emptive.
I am glad for the commenters saying they found the result "counter-intuitive". Noticing your confusion in this way is a good skill to learn, especially in this day and age. That nagging feeling in the back of your mind that something is off or that you forgot something.
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As an aside: If you are interested in more on biases, may I suggest reading "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. One of my favourite non-fiction books. Some of the results in there (notably priming) have themselves unfortunately fallen prey to the replication crisis, but the book as a whole is still brilliant.
Some links RE: the replication crisis and Kahneman's responses regarding it:
The Irony Effect: How the scientist who founded the science of mistakes ended up mistaken.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/12/kahneman_and_tversky_researched_the_science_of_error_and_still_made_errors.html http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/201...
Replicability-Index
Improving the replicability of empirical research
Reconstruction of a Train Wreck: How Priming Research Went off the Rails
https://replicationindex.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-train-wreck-how-priming-research-went-of-the-rails https://replicationindex.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/reconstruc...
Kahneman's Comment:
https://replicationindex.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-train-wreck-how-priming-research-went-of-the-rails/comment-page-1/#comment-1454 https://replicationindex.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/reconstruc...
Retraction Watch
“I placed too much faith in underpowered studies:” Nobel Prize winner admits mistakes
https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-underpowered-studies-nobel-prize-winner-admits-mistakes/ https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-und...