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There isn't any informational value in constantly predicting crisis, of course you will be correct some of the time.
by dia80 8y ago
There isn't any informational value in constantly predicting crisis, of course you will be correct some of the time.
- xref 8y ago"Mr. Lee made his initial call — that Turkey was in deep financial trouble — in 2011." But in 2012 a well respected stock picking horse stomped its hoof twice signaling the lira was strong so I was torn.
- xiphias 8y agoIf you look at the linked newsletter itself, it's much more than just a prediction. Tim has a long explanation that I think is interesting: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/152-turkey-financial-crisis-tim-lee/a81d090225872507f518/optimized/full.pdf#page=1 https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/152-turkey-financial... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carry_(investment) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carry_(investment) The term carry trade, without further modification, refers to currency carry trade: investors borrow low-yielding currencies and lend (invest in) high-yielding currencies. It is thought to correlate with global financial and exchange rate stability and retracts in use during global liquidity shortages,[3] but the carry trade is often blamed for rapid currency value collapse and appreciation.