>> In recent years, the company has put the probability of a recession six months out at close to 10 percent. Now, Vanguard says the chances of one by late 2020

>> In recent years, the company has put the probability of a recession six months out at close to 10 percent. Now, Vanguard says the chances of one by late 2020 are between 30 and 40 percent. That’s Vanguard’s highest-ever estimate for that time frame, Mr. Davis said. (A six-month forecast reported a greater than 40 percent probability before the recession that started in December 2007.) The parenthetical was the interesting part to me. I would love to see some long-term data on their forecasts.