4 ms·
There is absolutely no saying what the likelihood of a recession is. Agreed, unlike every other random event that exists in the universe, recessions are the on
by st26 8y ago
There is absolutely no saying what the likelihood of a recession is.
Agreed, unlike every other random event that exists in the universe, recessions are the one thing whose likelyhood cannot possibly be expressed.
- chrisco255 8y agoProblem here is it's not a repeatable experiment. The sample size is 1 world economy.
- lucisferre 8y agoThis is a fair comment and I'm not sure why you were downvoted. However it is not a single random event either. A continuous random process with memory would probably be the most appropriate model, and this would be what Vanguard and others use to make estimations of likelihood.