Depressingly, this is apparently unfamiliar even to doctors who actually face this exact situation on a regular basis. Given multiple choice tests, they get the

Depressingly, this is apparently unfamiliar even to doctors who actually face this exact situation on a regular basis. Given multiple choice tests, they get the right rate at (or a bit below) random chance, and a large plurality think that the test accuracy equals the chance that a positive result is correct. Those numbers are from 2007 - given that I learned this result in an entry-level undergraduate stats course, I'd like to think things are improving. But I'm not especially optimistic, and even if they are it still means generations of practicing doctors weren't taught this. https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28166019 https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28166019