5 ms·

My guess is that energy will be so cheap, we produce much much more than we consume in the future. There will be an abundance of energy some decades down. Also

My guess is that energy will be so cheap, we produce much much more than we consume in the future. There will be an abundance of energy some decades down. Also electric cars will create very large storage capcities for energy in the next decade. On top of that we get intelligent meters, with machines like my washing machine pulling power at the best time, my battery chargers using the right time etc, so (non-industry) demand will flatten out over time with intelligent metering. I would have feared about this issue 20y ago, but I think this is no longer of any importance for the development of solar power. What is relevant with the ongoing centralization of solar power is power transmission.

MrEfficiency 8y ago
>Also electric cars will create very large storage capcities for energy in the next decade. Chem engineer here, battery technology doesnt seem to be a guarantee to improve. Batteries are limited by the physics of our universe. The chemistry between two chemicals will not change, and it feels like we have exhausted every option. This is a non trivial problem and I am unsure if I expect a solution.
- _Codemonkeyism 8y ago
  I do agree. In 2 decades there will be hundreds of millions of electric cars in the world which currently do not exist. This is a huge increase in battery power even with battery technology not changing in the next 2 decades.
- Zealotux 8y ago
  I'm curious of what your opinion of hydrogen is, I know that it's still very expensive because of energy lost during the conversions. Do you think it has a viable future when it comes to energy storage?
- greglindahl 8y ago
  The actual track record of battery improvement is pretty incredible, especially the recent fall in prices.
- ben_w 8y ago
  I expect minimal (or even zero) energy density improvements. However, I do expect cost improvements. Even if the cost to make a battery is constant when measured in joules, PV is getting cheaper and can supply more joules for less money.
  - genericid 8y ago
    Is energy density even important for grid storage? France is larger and less mobile than a car or a computer.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      It is not important. As you mentioned, plenty of space.
    - ben_w 8y ago
      Not at all. Even in cars, further density improvements are not needed, as the limitation to general adoption is cost rather than range or performance. In restrospect I ought to have mentioned that in my previous comment…
      - mrep 8y ago
        Density + charging speed are definitely important but I do agree that cost is without a doubt the biggest problem. For some people, gas will still be preferable until electric charging speed is close to gas AND speedy charging units are as available as gas stations AND batteries match the range of gas tanks (my new subaru gets like 500 miles on a full tank when driving on the interstate which is super convenient and good luck getting long distance rural drivers to switch without the 3 problems I cited). It's too far out to say if electric cars/dynamic grid/renewable energy will revolunatize our planets energy usage since we are very entrenched in the current system (and anyone claiming anything beyond 5 years underestimates how fast shit changes IMO) but I am seriously excited about these changes with how much the economics have been improving for a clean energy society.
        8y ago
- mrep 8y ago
  I'm no electrical engineer, but I think we can do some napkin math. 80khw battery in an average model s * 300000000 million cars / (3,911,000,000,000 kwh energy use in the in all of 2015 [2] / 365 days per year) = 2.239 times as much storage in cars on the road versus energy usage which seems pretty doable. Also, it also gets better because as car batteries age and their storage / weight goes down, you can replace them with new ones and put the old ones in grid storage locations where weight / storage does not matter and run them till they are literally dead. [1]: about a little less than 1 per person (just rough estimating here) [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electrici...
  - mrep 8y ago
    2 big variables I forgot about. 1. We need to eventually switch our winter gas heaters to electric which while helping balance summer vs winter electric usage, electric heating isn't as efficient and we have to increase the outside air a lot more in the winter than we have to cool it in the summer (for most people at least). 2. I forgot to add in the extra electric demand needed to power the cars which is currently powered by oil.
    - icebraining 8y ago
      Electric heat pumps are quite efficient, AFAIK.
      - mrep 8y ago
        I heard that a long time ago and thinking back on it, I think it was due to the fact that most electricity comes from burning other stuff so the overall efficiency of burning something to make electricity (definitely not 100%), then transporting over lines to your house, then converting that into heat to warm your home is less efficient than just burning it at your house and using the heat directly.
      - amluto 8y ago
        For swimming pools, which are admittedly a special case, heat pumps are already cheaper to operate than gas heaters in most of the country. (They’re special for several reasons. A big one is that they have huge thermal mass, so your heat pump can operate at whatever time of day you want. This means you can optimize for electric rates vs outdoor temperature. Heat pumps, unlike gas boilers, are considerably more efficient when it’s warm out.)
- psergeant 8y ago
  > Batteries are limited by the physics of our universe Right, but our ingenuity and understanding of the physics may well not be perfect. Didn’t Moore’s law continue on well past it’s sell-by-date?
  - mitchty 8y ago
    > Right, but our ingenuity and understanding of the physics may well not be perfect. Our understanding of gravity is pretty much the same as Newton's in how we can utilize it. We know its not perfect but that doesn't change the reality. And ironically, battery chemistry is better understood than gravity.
    - psergeant 8y ago
      > Our understanding of gravity is pretty much the same as Newton's in how we can utilize it I suspect anyone from Newton’s day would be surprised to see an A380.
- PuffinBlue 8y ago
  Battery technology might not be a limitless path, but wouldn't super-capacitors have more potential? The ability to store large amounts of power very very quickly and for a decent amount of time could be an important addition to energy management, if such capacitors could be commercially viable and practical.
  - teraflop 8y ago
    Supercapacitors are already commercially viable. I have one in my cheap dashcam because it withstands high temperatures better than a battery. The only problem is that their energy density is 1-2 orders of magnitude worse than lithium-ion batteries.
    - PuffinBlue 8y ago
      Ah yes, I actually have one in my dashcam too! Oops. As you can see this is an area I don't know much about. I was more thinking along the lines of larger 'industrial' scale capacitors, but I'm not sure if there are fundamental barriers physical that can't be overcome to make such devices a sensible route to pursue?
- w1 8y ago
  One energy storage method that's relatively cheap, efficient, and scalable is pumped-storage hydroelectricity. There's a 3 GW plant in Virginia that's been in operation since the 80s[1]! There is ultimately minimal need for FF peakers, or large rare-earth batteries, if governments can execute projects like this. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Sta...
  - mrep 8y ago
    Yeah, but like most renewable energy, you need the right place to currently make it economical.
pjc50 8y ago
> My guess is that energy will be so cheap, we produce much much more than we consume in the future Nuclear power promised "too cheap to meter" and of course this never materialised, because someone does actually have to pay the capital and operating costs. While spot prices may drift around all over the place, and renewable guaranteed price floors will continue to lower gradually, I wouldn't expect retail electricity to get much cheaper soon.
realreality 8y ago
Solar power currently generates less than 1% of the energy consumed in the U.S. [1] Solar power is not currently displacing fossil fuel use — it’s merely contributing to the growth in consumption. In order to fulfill the Paris agreement of limiting warming to 2°C (which would already be a global catastrophe), developed countries must reach zero CO2 emissions by 2035. We need to be reducing emissions about 10% per year. Instead, emissions are increasing by about 2% per year. If you want to convert all of the ICE cars on the road to electric cars, where will the energy come from to do that? Manufacturing the cars requires fossil fuels. They have a limited lifespan, and then you have to replace them. By that time, our economy must not be running on fossil fuels, so how will those cars be replaced? Even solar panels require fossil fuels to be manufactured and transported. In sum, at the moment, we’re actively robbing from the future in order to appear to be heading toward sustainability. [1] https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2017.png https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/...
- _Codemonkeyism 8y ago
  I wonder, "Even solar panels require fossil fuels" what parts in solar panels are from fossil fuels?
  - realreality 8y ago
    How is the aluminum mined and smelted? How is the tempered glass made? How are the other trace elements mined, transported, and refined? Once they’re manufactured, how do they travel to their installation location? There have been lots of studies on the carbon footprint of solar panel manufacturing. Generally, they’re considered to “pay off” in terms of energy production after about 5 years. (They have a 25year lifetime, btw) In a world where the economy must be carbon neutral to negative, none of that manufacturing and transportation infrastructure can be run on fossil fuels.
    - deftnerd 8y ago
      To be fair, they usually have a warrantied lifespan of 25 years... and as solar cells start degrading, their output drops off in a gradual linear fashion. At 25 years, solar panels still produce between 80% and 87% of their manufactured capacity. At 50 years, they should still produce between 60% and 75% of their manufactured capacity. It's quite possible that solar panels could have much longer life spans. There isn't a lot of data yet, but there are some indications that they'll be performing well. A 33W solar panel (Arco Solar 16-2000) actually outperformed it’s original factory specifications 30 years after it was manufactured World`s first modern solar panel still works after 60 years Kyocera has reported several solar power installations that continue to operate reliably and generate electricity even though they are nearly 30 years old The big problems in longevity at the moment are batteries and inverters that typically have to be replaced every 5 to 10 years. When I build my off-grid solar system, I'm planning to use NiFi batteries (Nickel Iron) that have lifespans in the hundreds of years with minimal maintenance. They're larger and hold less capacity, but don't damage themselves when over/under charged and use materials a lot more available than modern high-density battery storage technologies. I haven't seen a long-life inverter yet and that's frustrating. Inverter manufacturers have thin margins and competition, so they focus on lowering costs rather than redundancy and hardening.
tonyedgecombe 8y ago
I wonder what will happen to the price of oil as we switch to electric vehicles. Could we end up increasing demand elsewhere in the energy economy as the price falls?

MrEfficiency 8y ago

>Also electric cars will create very large storage capcities for energy in the next decade. Chem engineer here, battery technology doesnt seem to be a guarantee to improve. Batteries are limited by the physics of our universe. The chemistry between two chemicals will not change, and it feels like we have exhausted every option. This is a non trivial problem and I am unsure if I expect a solution.

_Codemonkeyism 8y ago
I do agree. In 2 decades there will be hundreds of millions of electric cars in the world which currently do not exist. This is a huge increase in battery power even with battery technology not changing in the next 2 decades.
Zealotux 8y ago
I'm curious of what your opinion of hydrogen is, I know that it's still very expensive because of energy lost during the conversions. Do you think it has a viable future when it comes to energy storage?
greglindahl 8y ago
The actual track record of battery improvement is pretty incredible, especially the recent fall in prices.
ben_w 8y ago
I expect minimal (or even zero) energy density improvements. However, I do expect cost improvements. Even if the cost to make a battery is constant when measured in joules, PV is getting cheaper and can supply more joules for less money.
- genericid 8y ago
  Is energy density even important for grid storage? France is larger and less mobile than a car or a computer.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    It is not important. As you mentioned, plenty of space.
  - ben_w 8y ago
    Not at all. Even in cars, further density improvements are not needed, as the limitation to general adoption is cost rather than range or performance. In restrospect I ought to have mentioned that in my previous comment…
    - mrep 8y ago
      Density + charging speed are definitely important but I do agree that cost is without a doubt the biggest problem. For some people, gas will still be preferable until electric charging speed is close to gas AND speedy charging units are as available as gas stations AND batteries match the range of gas tanks (my new subaru gets like 500 miles on a full tank when driving on the interstate which is super convenient and good luck getting long distance rural drivers to switch without the 3 problems I cited). It's too far out to say if electric cars/dynamic grid/renewable energy will revolunatize our planets energy usage since we are very entrenched in the current system (and anyone claiming anything beyond 5 years underestimates how fast shit changes IMO) but I am seriously excited about these changes with how much the economics have been improving for a clean energy society.
      - 8y ago
mrep 8y ago
I'm no electrical engineer, but I think we can do some napkin math. 80khw battery in an average model s * 300000000 million cars / (3,911,000,000,000 kwh energy use in the in all of 2015 [2] / 365 days per year) = 2.239 times as much storage in cars on the road versus energy usage which seems pretty doable. Also, it also gets better because as car batteries age and their storage / weight goes down, you can replace them with new ones and put the old ones in grid storage locations where weight / storage does not matter and run them till they are literally dead. [1]: about a little less than 1 per person (just rough estimating here) [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electrici...
- mrep 8y ago
  2 big variables I forgot about. 1. We need to eventually switch our winter gas heaters to electric which while helping balance summer vs winter electric usage, electric heating isn't as efficient and we have to increase the outside air a lot more in the winter than we have to cool it in the summer (for most people at least). 2. I forgot to add in the extra electric demand needed to power the cars which is currently powered by oil.
  - icebraining 8y ago
    Electric heat pumps are quite efficient, AFAIK.
    - mrep 8y ago
      I heard that a long time ago and thinking back on it, I think it was due to the fact that most electricity comes from burning other stuff so the overall efficiency of burning something to make electricity (definitely not 100%), then transporting over lines to your house, then converting that into heat to warm your home is less efficient than just burning it at your house and using the heat directly.
    - amluto 8y ago
      For swimming pools, which are admittedly a special case, heat pumps are already cheaper to operate than gas heaters in most of the country. (They’re special for several reasons. A big one is that they have huge thermal mass, so your heat pump can operate at whatever time of day you want. This means you can optimize for electric rates vs outdoor temperature. Heat pumps, unlike gas boilers, are considerably more efficient when it’s warm out.)
psergeant 8y ago
> Batteries are limited by the physics of our universe Right, but our ingenuity and understanding of the physics may well not be perfect. Didn’t Moore’s law continue on well past it’s sell-by-date?
- mitchty 8y ago
  > Right, but our ingenuity and understanding of the physics may well not be perfect. Our understanding of gravity is pretty much the same as Newton's in how we can utilize it. We know its not perfect but that doesn't change the reality. And ironically, battery chemistry is better understood than gravity.
  - psergeant 8y ago
    > Our understanding of gravity is pretty much the same as Newton's in how we can utilize it I suspect anyone from Newton’s day would be surprised to see an A380.
PuffinBlue 8y ago
Battery technology might not be a limitless path, but wouldn't super-capacitors have more potential? The ability to store large amounts of power very very quickly and for a decent amount of time could be an important addition to energy management, if such capacitors could be commercially viable and practical.
- teraflop 8y ago
  Supercapacitors are already commercially viable. I have one in my cheap dashcam because it withstands high temperatures better than a battery. The only problem is that their energy density is 1-2 orders of magnitude worse than lithium-ion batteries.
  - PuffinBlue 8y ago
    Ah yes, I actually have one in my dashcam too! Oops. As you can see this is an area I don't know much about. I was more thinking along the lines of larger 'industrial' scale capacitors, but I'm not sure if there are fundamental barriers physical that can't be overcome to make such devices a sensible route to pursue?
w1 8y ago
One energy storage method that's relatively cheap, efficient, and scalable is pumped-storage hydroelectricity. There's a 3 GW plant in Virginia that's been in operation since the 80s[1]! There is ultimately minimal need for FF peakers, or large rare-earth batteries, if governments can execute projects like this. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Sta...
- mrep 8y ago
  Yeah, but like most renewable energy, you need the right place to currently make it economical.

pjc50 8y ago

> My guess is that energy will be so cheap, we produce much much more than we consume in the future Nuclear power promised "too cheap to meter" and of course this never materialised, because someone does actually have to pay the capital and operating costs. While spot prices may drift around all over the place, and renewable guaranteed price floors will continue to lower gradually, I wouldn't expect retail electricity to get much cheaper soon.

realreality 8y ago

Solar power currently generates less than 1% of the energy consumed in the U.S. [1] Solar power is not currently displacing fossil fuel use — it’s merely contributing to the growth in consumption. In order to fulfill the Paris agreement of limiting warming to 2°C (which would already be a global catastrophe), developed countries must reach zero CO2 emissions by 2035. We need to be reducing emissions about 10% per year. Instead, emissions are increasing by about 2% per year. If you want to convert all of the ICE cars on the road to electric cars, where will the energy come from to do that? Manufacturing the cars requires fossil fuels. They have a limited lifespan, and then you have to replace them. By that time, our economy must not be running on fossil fuels, so how will those cars be replaced? Even solar panels require fossil fuels to be manufactured and transported. In sum, at the moment, we’re actively robbing from the future in order to appear to be heading toward sustainability. [1] https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2017.png https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/...

_Codemonkeyism 8y ago
I wonder, "Even solar panels require fossil fuels" what parts in solar panels are from fossil fuels?
- realreality 8y ago
  How is the aluminum mined and smelted? How is the tempered glass made? How are the other trace elements mined, transported, and refined? Once they’re manufactured, how do they travel to their installation location? There have been lots of studies on the carbon footprint of solar panel manufacturing. Generally, they’re considered to “pay off” in terms of energy production after about 5 years. (They have a 25year lifetime, btw) In a world where the economy must be carbon neutral to negative, none of that manufacturing and transportation infrastructure can be run on fossil fuels.
  - deftnerd 8y ago
    To be fair, they usually have a warrantied lifespan of 25 years... and as solar cells start degrading, their output drops off in a gradual linear fashion. At 25 years, solar panels still produce between 80% and 87% of their manufactured capacity. At 50 years, they should still produce between 60% and 75% of their manufactured capacity. It's quite possible that solar panels could have much longer life spans. There isn't a lot of data yet, but there are some indications that they'll be performing well. A 33W solar panel (Arco Solar 16-2000) actually outperformed it’s original factory specifications 30 years after it was manufactured World`s first modern solar panel still works after 60 years Kyocera has reported several solar power installations that continue to operate reliably and generate electricity even though they are nearly 30 years old The big problems in longevity at the moment are batteries and inverters that typically have to be replaced every 5 to 10 years. When I build my off-grid solar system, I'm planning to use NiFi batteries (Nickel Iron) that have lifespans in the hundreds of years with minimal maintenance. They're larger and hold less capacity, but don't damage themselves when over/under charged and use materials a lot more available than modern high-density battery storage technologies. I haven't seen a long-life inverter yet and that's frustrating. Inverter manufacturers have thin margins and competition, so they focus on lowering costs rather than redundancy and hardening.

tonyedgecombe 8y ago

I wonder what will happen to the price of oil as we switch to electric vehicles. Could we end up increasing demand elsewhere in the energy economy as the price falls?