7 ms·

Empty shipyard and suicides as 'Hyundai Town' grapples with grim future

59 points by rectang 8y ago

belorn 8y ago
The article doesn't state it, so what does the gender distribution look like for the suicide rates? An age group of 25 to 29 and strongly connected with job loss gives a rather strong hint that the numbers are not evenly spread. If the total number has doubled then I suspect the increase for that gender and age group has increased far more than double.
forkLding 8y ago
Its much harder to compete now, even originally Chinese-based jobs are being outsourced too.
- sn41 8y ago
  I have heard the phrase that "Africa is China's China". I don't know how much quantitatively, offshoring has happened from China.
  - forkLding 8y ago
    I would say Africa isn't the biggest. Vietnam (mentioned in article) and Bangladesh already produce a lot and are overtaking certain industries like textiles and shoes. For example, Nike's biggest amount of contract factories are Vietnamese and they earn roughly one to two dollars per day per Vietnamese worker. For now, Western companies are still choosing countries in Asia. Maybe Chinese companies are choosing African countries because minimum wage has increased in China and many factories have gone bankrupt and other Asian countries only cater to Western countries for their factory needs.
petermcneeley 8y ago
He might not have a job now and at 52 maybe never again, but he needs to look at the positive side; likely due to labor offshoring a new Hyndai vehicle might end up being 30% cheaper.
- cinquemb 8y ago
  …that he might actually be able to buy without having a job once korean regulators give the green light for would-be investors to pour their and their friends/families life savings into making unsecured p2p loan platforms popular.
  - petermcneeley 8y ago
    Exactly! and with all those physics and math phds in finance Im sure we can make sure that loan to a middle aged unemployed man mathematically seem rigorous and there is no way that a bailout will ever be required.
    - rectang 8y ago
      While I share your sentiments with regards to the plight of individuals left behind, I can't go with you on bailouts. That's socializing the losses while privatizing the profits, and it leads to crony capitalism and dyspeptic behemoths like the chaebols. The analogues in the USA are the too-big-to-fail financial institutions that almost wrecked us in 2007-2008, yet who remain as untouchable as the chaebols. Few of our congressional representatives actually believe in capitalism for the financial industry.
      - petermcneeley 8y ago
        Im sure your familiar with how banks get the money they loan out to people (Hint it has nothing to do with deposits). There is nothing capitalist about that system to begin with...
        rectang 8y ago
        That's a confusing response. Are you advocating for government bailouts for chaebols and US banks?
        petermcneeley 8y ago
bane 8y ago
I've been to that region of South Korea a few times. The DSME (Daewoo) shipyard is in nearby Geoje-do. It's not far from the Samsung Heavy Industries shipyard. Geoje is home to some incredibly rugged and beautiful coastlines, a small city and other than the two shipyards, not much else except some fishing villages. Together, those three shipyards (including the Hyundai one in Ulsan) used to, and maybe still do, account for the three largest shipyards on the planet. Gyeongju, another nearby city is mostly known for historical tourism and home to some incredible living UNESCO sites. But not much else since it was the capital of a now defunct nation in the 900s. Busan is the second largest city in South Korea and one of the few cities that made it through the Korean War without being flattened into rubble and who's principal industry is port logistics and fishing -- it's basically Singapore or Hong Kong of South Korea without all the financial business. Ulsan is very much a company town on who's fate rests Hyundai's successes -- and Hyundai hasn't been killing it recently. The city is also home to the world's largest auto factory and number of other Hyundai conglomerate sites. As Hyundai's fate twists and turns in the global winds, so does the entire city. It doesn't have much to do with the other nearby cities, and it's on the northern edge of an isolated region that's politically aligned with the ruling party, while the rest of the region it and Busan exist within voted for the other guy. The relationship with China has been rockier than I think anybody has let on to and historic relations with Japan have never been exactly "warm". The recent THAAD anti-missile situation really rattled the Korean-Chinese relationship and between turning the Chinese public away from obviously South Korean goods in bulk numbers, China has also seriously ramped up ship manufacturing and I believe now leads in total tonnage. In addition, new shipyards are coming online in India and Vietnam putting additional downwards economic pressure on these three shipyards that used to enjoy a near monopoly. Even worse, global shipping hasn't recovered, and movement of energy products (oil and gas) is geographically shifting (less oil needing to move from Saudi to the U.S. for example) so demand for ships is down, AND several large shipping companies went out of business putting more ships up on the secondary market AND it turns out very very very large ships didn't work out as well as was hoped, so orders for that equipment never materialized. As for the other major business there, Korea's auto manufacturing business has also been consolidating and changing. Hyundai is the major manufacturer, but Hyundai-Kia has moved much of their manufacturing overseas from Korea into the domestic markets they sell into and the rest of the auto industry in Korea is in disarray and succumbing to foreign manufacturers finally clearing various import hurdles and selling in larger and larger numbers. Among the "basically defunct": Daewoo Motors (now GM), Samsung Motors (now majority owned by Renault), SsangYong Motors (now owned by Mahindra). Some of these are still large, but dying giants. It looks pretty bad to be honest and my guess is that Ulsan may soon turn into South Korea's Detroit. Here's a pretty good article that outlines some of these problems in terms of raw tonnage https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/07/big-three-korean-shipbuilders-in-a-world-of-overcapacity-and-collapsed-orders/ https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/07/big-three-korean-shipbuild...
doombolt 8y ago
I think the grim reality is that mono-industry towns are not viable in the long run. The world seems to have a large supply of these and their future is never certain.
- ebbv 8y ago
  So what's the solution? If a big company opens a factory in an area, then the hire a bunch of people at that factory, people obviously want to move closer to where work is. It's not like those people can then say "Hey we need another company to open a factory here just in case." Even if there are other jobs created in the town, the loss of hundreds (or thousands) of jobs is always going to be devastating anywhere outside of a big city. It's easy to say "Oh well those people shouldn't have bet everything on that factory." but that's not realistic or providing any kind of solution.
  - EZ-E 8y ago
    > So what's the solution? Some towns adapt after a while. For example Lille and its neighboring towns in France. It used to be big in textile/coal industry. Many old abandoned factories got converted into modern offices for startups, into stores etc... One example (scroll down for pictures) : https://www.usineroubaix.fr/fr/ https://www.usineroubaix.fr/fr/
  - freddie_mercury 8y ago
    > So what's the solution? [...] the loss of hundreds (or thousands) of jobs is always going to be devastating anywhere outside of a big city. It seems like the seeds of the solution are contained in your own post: don't live anywhere but a big city. Or, if you do, realise that you are making a risky bet with your entire family at stake.
    - close04 8y ago
      Actually the solution was already tried and tested by American cities. It's called diversifying the economic base. Instead of relying on 1 mammoth company, try to develop and sustain multiple smaller ones. All American cities that recovered from the '70s-'80s downturn, and even from the 2008 crisis were the ones with a higher number of smaller employers, startups, etc. The ones that diversified. Because they are more resilient to one company's failure.
Animats 8y ago
This could work out. The US Navy needs to expand but the US lacks sufficient shipbuilding capacity.
- gaius 8y ago
  The US Navy needs to expand but the US lacks sufficient shipbuilding capacity The UK did this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17127488 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17127488
  - Animats 8y ago
    They got delivery, too. The last of the four Korean-built tankers entered British waters yesterday.
    - gaius 8y ago
      I’ll wager they work in warm waters too, unlike the Type 45s...
      - deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
clanreborn 8y ago
The only way to thrive is to invest in the entertainment industry. Local theaters, strip clubs, bars and dance clubs will always be needed by well off people where not so well off people can perform and make money. Hell a blowjob in Netherlands costs 50 euros. I know here 20 people who never kept a job still they live better than 90% of people who have a job. How? They seduce people in power like professors, executives and VPs who pay all their bills. Can really a person die starving when the biggest industry ( read: sex) is not served well? I don't see sex industry being automated any sooner, that's where the money is. No robot can be built who can provide the same sensory pleasure and creative discourse like a human. There is no way to order a blowjob directly to your home unlike other stuff like electronics which are available through Amazon. I would love to order belly dance session from home at hourly cost through an app where the app acts as an escrow. Currently, this is not possible. Performing in front of a person should be cheaper than performing in front of a large audience for a rooky performer. But this isn't possible for now. People have every right to stay dillusional about what market needs. They are only fooling themselves.
phobosdeimos 8y ago
Those shipyards used to be in my country until South Korea and other Asian countries took over in the 70s. Succesful countries adapt and survive.I hope the Korean government isn't stupid enough to try to save them. That simply won't work.
- clankfan 8y ago
  The Korean government is democratically elected as recently noted in the news. Aren't you saying "I hope the Korean people aren't stupid enough to try and save themselves?"

59 points by rectang 8y ago

The article doesn't state it, so what does the gender distribution look like for the suicide rates? An age group of 25 to 29 and strongly connected with job loss gives a rather strong hint that the numbers are not evenly spread. If the total number has doubled then I suspect the increase for that gender and age group has increased far more than double.

forkLding 8y ago

Its much harder to compete now, even originally Chinese-based jobs are being outsourced too.

sn41 8y ago
I have heard the phrase that "Africa is China's China". I don't know how much quantitatively, offshoring has happened from China.
- forkLding 8y ago
  I would say Africa isn't the biggest. Vietnam (mentioned in article) and Bangladesh already produce a lot and are overtaking certain industries like textiles and shoes. For example, Nike's biggest amount of contract factories are Vietnamese and they earn roughly one to two dollars per day per Vietnamese worker. For now, Western companies are still choosing countries in Asia. Maybe Chinese companies are choosing African countries because minimum wage has increased in China and many factories have gone bankrupt and other Asian countries only cater to Western countries for their factory needs.

petermcneeley 8y ago

He might not have a job now and at 52 maybe never again, but he needs to look at the positive side; likely due to labor offshoring a new Hyndai vehicle might end up being 30% cheaper.

cinquemb 8y ago
…that he might actually be able to buy without having a job once korean regulators give the green light for would-be investors to pour their and their friends/families life savings into making unsecured p2p loan platforms popular.
- petermcneeley 8y ago
  Exactly! and with all those physics and math phds in finance Im sure we can make sure that loan to a middle aged unemployed man mathematically seem rigorous and there is no way that a bailout will ever be required.
  - rectang 8y ago
    While I share your sentiments with regards to the plight of individuals left behind, I can't go with you on bailouts. That's socializing the losses while privatizing the profits, and it leads to crony capitalism and dyspeptic behemoths like the chaebols. The analogues in the USA are the too-big-to-fail financial institutions that almost wrecked us in 2007-2008, yet who remain as untouchable as the chaebols. Few of our congressional representatives actually believe in capitalism for the financial industry.
    - petermcneeley 8y ago
      Im sure your familiar with how banks get the money they loan out to people (Hint it has nothing to do with deposits). There is nothing capitalist about that system to begin with...
      - rectang 8y ago
        That's a confusing response. Are you advocating for government bailouts for chaebols and US banks?
        petermcneeley 8y ago

bane 8y ago

I've been to that region of South Korea a few times. The DSME (Daewoo) shipyard is in nearby Geoje-do. It's not far from the Samsung Heavy Industries shipyard. Geoje is home to some incredibly rugged and beautiful coastlines, a small city and other than the two shipyards, not much else except some fishing villages. Together, those three shipyards (including the Hyundai one in Ulsan) used to, and maybe still do, account for the three largest shipyards on the planet. Gyeongju, another nearby city is mostly known for historical tourism and home to some incredible living UNESCO sites. But not much else since it was the capital of a now defunct nation in the 900s. Busan is the second largest city in South Korea and one of the few cities that made it through the Korean War without being flattened into rubble and who's principal industry is port logistics and fishing -- it's basically Singapore or Hong Kong of South Korea without all the financial business. Ulsan is very much a company town on who's fate rests Hyundai's successes -- and Hyundai hasn't been killing it recently. The city is also home to the world's largest auto factory and number of other Hyundai conglomerate sites. As Hyundai's fate twists and turns in the global winds, so does the entire city. It doesn't have much to do with the other nearby cities, and it's on the northern edge of an isolated region that's politically aligned with the ruling party, while the rest of the region it and Busan exist within voted for the other guy. The relationship with China has been rockier than I think anybody has let on to and historic relations with Japan have never been exactly "warm". The recent THAAD anti-missile situation really rattled the Korean-Chinese relationship and between turning the Chinese public away from obviously South Korean goods in bulk numbers, China has also seriously ramped up ship manufacturing and I believe now leads in total tonnage. In addition, new shipyards are coming online in India and Vietnam putting additional downwards economic pressure on these three shipyards that used to enjoy a near monopoly. Even worse, global shipping hasn't recovered, and movement of energy products (oil and gas) is geographically shifting (less oil needing to move from Saudi to the U.S. for example) so demand for ships is down, AND several large shipping companies went out of business putting more ships up on the secondary market AND it turns out very very very large ships didn't work out as well as was hoped, so orders for that equipment never materialized. As for the other major business there, Korea's auto manufacturing business has also been consolidating and changing. Hyundai is the major manufacturer, but Hyundai-Kia has moved much of their manufacturing overseas from Korea into the domestic markets they sell into and the rest of the auto industry in Korea is in disarray and succumbing to foreign manufacturers finally clearing various import hurdles and selling in larger and larger numbers. Among the "basically defunct": Daewoo Motors (now GM), Samsung Motors (now majority owned by Renault), SsangYong Motors (now owned by Mahindra). Some of these are still large, but dying giants. It looks pretty bad to be honest and my guess is that Ulsan may soon turn into South Korea's Detroit. Here's a pretty good article that outlines some of these problems in terms of raw tonnage https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/07/big-three-korean-shipbuilders-in-a-world-of-overcapacity-and-collapsed-orders/ https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/07/big-three-korean-shipbuild...

doombolt 8y ago

I think the grim reality is that mono-industry towns are not viable in the long run. The world seems to have a large supply of these and their future is never certain.

ebbv 8y ago
So what's the solution? If a big company opens a factory in an area, then the hire a bunch of people at that factory, people obviously want to move closer to where work is. It's not like those people can then say "Hey we need another company to open a factory here just in case." Even if there are other jobs created in the town, the loss of hundreds (or thousands) of jobs is always going to be devastating anywhere outside of a big city. It's easy to say "Oh well those people shouldn't have bet everything on that factory." but that's not realistic or providing any kind of solution.
- EZ-E 8y ago
  > So what's the solution? Some towns adapt after a while. For example Lille and its neighboring towns in France. It used to be big in textile/coal industry. Many old abandoned factories got converted into modern offices for startups, into stores etc... One example (scroll down for pictures) : https://www.usineroubaix.fr/fr/ https://www.usineroubaix.fr/fr/
- freddie_mercury 8y ago
  > So what's the solution? [...] the loss of hundreds (or thousands) of jobs is always going to be devastating anywhere outside of a big city. It seems like the seeds of the solution are contained in your own post: don't live anywhere but a big city. Or, if you do, realise that you are making a risky bet with your entire family at stake.
  - close04 8y ago
    Actually the solution was already tried and tested by American cities. It's called diversifying the economic base. Instead of relying on 1 mammoth company, try to develop and sustain multiple smaller ones. All American cities that recovered from the '70s-'80s downturn, and even from the 2008 crisis were the ones with a higher number of smaller employers, startups, etc. The ones that diversified. Because they are more resilient to one company's failure.

Animats 8y ago

This could work out. The US Navy needs to expand but the US lacks sufficient shipbuilding capacity.

gaius 8y ago
The US Navy needs to expand but the US lacks sufficient shipbuilding capacity The UK did this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17127488 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17127488
- Animats 8y ago
  They got delivery, too. The last of the four Korean-built tankers entered British waters yesterday.
  - gaius 8y ago
    I’ll wager they work in warm waters too, unlike the Type 45s...
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]

clanreborn 8y ago

The only way to thrive is to invest in the entertainment industry. Local theaters, strip clubs, bars and dance clubs will always be needed by well off people where not so well off people can perform and make money. Hell a blowjob in Netherlands costs 50 euros. I know here 20 people who never kept a job still they live better than 90% of people who have a job. How? They seduce people in power like professors, executives and VPs who pay all their bills. Can really a person die starving when the biggest industry ( read: sex) is not served well? I don't see sex industry being automated any sooner, that's where the money is. No robot can be built who can provide the same sensory pleasure and creative discourse like a human. There is no way to order a blowjob directly to your home unlike other stuff like electronics which are available through Amazon. I would love to order belly dance session from home at hourly cost through an app where the app acts as an escrow. Currently, this is not possible. Performing in front of a person should be cheaper than performing in front of a large audience for a rooky performer. But this isn't possible for now. People have every right to stay dillusional about what market needs. They are only fooling themselves.

phobosdeimos 8y ago

Those shipyards used to be in my country until South Korea and other Asian countries took over in the 70s. Succesful countries adapt and survive.I hope the Korean government isn't stupid enough to try to save them. That simply won't work.

clankfan 8y ago
The Korean government is democratically elected as recently noted in the news. Aren't you saying "I hope the Korean people aren't stupid enough to try and save themselves?"