Sure. GGP was claiming that it's only 0.018 "under this model", GP claimed no models mattered because this is a past event and probability is undefined, and I (

Sure. GGP was claiming that it's only 0.018 "under this model", GP claimed no models mattered because this is a past event and probability is undefined, and I (parent comment) said that it does make sense to talk about probability in this context with some model. In this case, a good model would probably include things like "a songwriter tends to write things similar to their other works", "this is the set of works written by Paul McCartney", "this is the set of works written by John Lennon", "these are the works they did together at varying degrees of cooperation", and "this is how a creative process works". All very hard to quantify and program, but possible with expert help.