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China's total fertility rate is already well below replacement level, their population will start shrinking around 2027. They're just attempting to boost the b
by jpatokal 8y ago
China's total fertility rate is already well below replacement level, their population will start shrinking around 2027. They're just attempting to boost the birth rate so the dependency ratio (number of people who work to support the retired) isn't so dire.
- reaperducer 8y agoChina's total fertility rate is already well below replacement level I hadn't heard about this, but a quick DDG shows it's true. "Census data for 2000 produced an estimated TFR of 1.22 children per woman (for the year November 1999 through October 2000" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2849170/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2849170/ Unfortunately the article is from 2009, and a lot has happened in China in the last decade. I'd like to see some updated studies, if anyone has a linky.
- khuey 8y agoA "one child policy" is pretty obviously below replacement level.
- dragonwriter 8y agoThe one child policy was never a strict limitation to one child, policies are almost never perfectly successful at surfing their goals, and it was weakened in a series of steps already, so it's not at all inconsistent with it having existed to be surprised that the actual birthrate on China is below replacement.