4 ms·

Well he was going to sell for $69 a share but then he tried $666 a share but that was too high so they settled on $420. The point is Musk is looking increasing

Well he was going to sell for $69 a share but then he tried $666 a share but that was too high so they settled on $420. The point is Musk is looking increasingly like a joke, which is not what you really want in a massive company that is hemorrhaging money and could actually collapse if Model 3 demand doesn't pick up.

osrec 8y ago
I agree. He's a talented guy, but a victim of his own grandiose imagination. I think he'll probably pull through, but he might have had more success as a respected, humble, private company, rather than trying to take public stage with his boastful showmanship at every occasion. Also the under-delivering (while still delivering a lot in actual terms) is starting to grow tiresome. Maybe it's the introvert in me talking, but I would certainly respect him a lot more if he made smaller claims and let his results speak for themselves.
- chibg10 8y ago
  I agree with you, but I wonder how much of (imo tiresome) antics are part of an intentional strategy. Deserved or not, Musk has an enormous fanbase because of his showmanship/public persona/whatever. My hunch is that this is net positive among Tesla's potential customers and probably has been net positive in terms of attracting capital as well. The latter is becoming somewhat more debatable lately though given Musk's somewhat erratic behavior I think. Personally as an investor, Musk's behavior looks uncomfortably to me like how Enron's CEO was behaving near the end (though I would object to any other serious comparisons between Enron and Tesla as businesses).
  - nickik 8y ago
    Or maybe he has fans because he has pushed the almost dead rocket industry and space into a new age. I never particularly liked him as a person, but I like him because of what he actually does.
jmpman 8y ago
The backlog of Model 3 reservations is rumored to be over 400,000. Of course I’ve never seen the split out of reservations for $35k variant versus the currently available $50k+ variety. (Yes it would be possible for Tesla to calculate the demand signal even though people waiting for a $35k variety look like customers that haven’t use the configurator) My hypothesis is that his financial model needs more customers of the $50k variety, isn’t seeing the demand, and needs to quickly go private before the cash flow becomes problematic again. The evidence I have to support this hypothesis is the lead time for recent dual motor Model 3. It’s very short. Once that demand dries up, all that’s left is a horde of angry masses waiting for their $35k car that they were expecting to arrive with a $7500 tax credit. Of course my hypothesis is ignoring international sales, which may provide a large enough buffer of premium model demand to keep this ship afloat.
- Qworg 8y ago
  The recent push to get Model 3's out with hand labor is going to wreck them in about six months as the recalls and repairs start to roll in. Tesla had all sorts of tolerance problems early and moving to hand assembly in a tent won't improve it.
  - bogomipz 8y ago
    As someone who doesn't follow Tesla development very closely I am curious is "hand labor" still how Teslas are being produced? I remember hearing this a while back but thought maybe some of the delays in ramping up production might have been due to switching to an automated/robotic process. Is this not the case?
    - sergers 8y ago
      To hit the 5000 in one week (technically took them 8 days), they setup additional assembly lines in tents, and additional hand labor. Hand labor, working extra shifts, is how they hit their mark. They continue to use it while they address the automation challenges
jjordan 8y ago
So how big is your short?
- jmpman 8y ago
  My only financial stake is the $2k in reservations currently in Tesla’s bank account. I’m a raving fan, but skeptical that corporate CEOs are going to divulge the true financial state of their companies. What data exists to refute my hypothesis?
h4b4n3r0 8y ago
Isn’t the entire production capacity pre-ordered at least a year out? I mean, how much more “demand” for a $45k car can there be?
nickik 8y ago
Another one of these vastly overstated statement. 420$ was maybe selected over 419 or 421 as a price for a joke, but if you actually believe he just made up a number to make a joke your are misinformed. This was in discussions with the board before the tweet. As for him looking like a joke, you just list more blatant lies. The Tesla Model 3 is the most pre-order car in history and they have insane amounts of demand. It will take 1-2 years to do the orders they already have. As for hemorrhaging money, guess what, most of that was investment and now the Tesla Model 3 is rolling in quite a bit of money, and with very little further investment, they can produce a highly profitable car for the next 2-3 years.

osrec 8y ago

I agree. He's a talented guy, but a victim of his own grandiose imagination. I think he'll probably pull through, but he might have had more success as a respected, humble, private company, rather than trying to take public stage with his boastful showmanship at every occasion. Also the under-delivering (while still delivering a lot in actual terms) is starting to grow tiresome. Maybe it's the introvert in me talking, but I would certainly respect him a lot more if he made smaller claims and let his results speak for themselves.

chibg10 8y ago
I agree with you, but I wonder how much of (imo tiresome) antics are part of an intentional strategy. Deserved or not, Musk has an enormous fanbase because of his showmanship/public persona/whatever. My hunch is that this is net positive among Tesla's potential customers and probably has been net positive in terms of attracting capital as well. The latter is becoming somewhat more debatable lately though given Musk's somewhat erratic behavior I think. Personally as an investor, Musk's behavior looks uncomfortably to me like how Enron's CEO was behaving near the end (though I would object to any other serious comparisons between Enron and Tesla as businesses).
- nickik 8y ago
  Or maybe he has fans because he has pushed the almost dead rocket industry and space into a new age. I never particularly liked him as a person, but I like him because of what he actually does.

jmpman 8y ago

The backlog of Model 3 reservations is rumored to be over 400,000. Of course I’ve never seen the split out of reservations for $35k variant versus the currently available $50k+ variety. (Yes it would be possible for Tesla to calculate the demand signal even though people waiting for a $35k variety look like customers that haven’t use the configurator) My hypothesis is that his financial model needs more customers of the $50k variety, isn’t seeing the demand, and needs to quickly go private before the cash flow becomes problematic again. The evidence I have to support this hypothesis is the lead time for recent dual motor Model 3. It’s very short. Once that demand dries up, all that’s left is a horde of angry masses waiting for their $35k car that they were expecting to arrive with a $7500 tax credit. Of course my hypothesis is ignoring international sales, which may provide a large enough buffer of premium model demand to keep this ship afloat.

Qworg 8y ago
The recent push to get Model 3's out with hand labor is going to wreck them in about six months as the recalls and repairs start to roll in. Tesla had all sorts of tolerance problems early and moving to hand assembly in a tent won't improve it.
- bogomipz 8y ago
  As someone who doesn't follow Tesla development very closely I am curious is "hand labor" still how Teslas are being produced? I remember hearing this a while back but thought maybe some of the delays in ramping up production might have been due to switching to an automated/robotic process. Is this not the case?
  - sergers 8y ago
    To hit the 5000 in one week (technically took them 8 days), they setup additional assembly lines in tents, and additional hand labor. Hand labor, working extra shifts, is how they hit their mark. They continue to use it while they address the automation challenges

jjordan 8y ago

So how big is your short?

jmpman 8y ago
My only financial stake is the $2k in reservations currently in Tesla’s bank account. I’m a raving fan, but skeptical that corporate CEOs are going to divulge the true financial state of their companies. What data exists to refute my hypothesis?

h4b4n3r0 8y ago

Isn’t the entire production capacity pre-ordered at least a year out? I mean, how much more “demand” for a $45k car can there be?

nickik 8y ago

Another one of these vastly overstated statement. 420$ was maybe selected over 419 or 421 as a price for a joke, but if you actually believe he just made up a number to make a joke your are misinformed. This was in discussions with the board before the tweet. As for him looking like a joke, you just list more blatant lies. The Tesla Model 3 is the most pre-order car in history and they have insane amounts of demand. It will take 1-2 years to do the orders they already have. As for hemorrhaging money, guess what, most of that was investment and now the Tesla Model 3 is rolling in quite a bit of money, and with very little further investment, they can produce a highly profitable car for the next 2-3 years.