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There was a "consensus among economists" that US economy would tank under Trump, and that it can't grow at anything over 3%, and that "those jobs are not coming

There was a "consensus among economists" that US economy would tank under Trump, and that it can't grow at anything over 3%, and that "those jobs are not coming back". To quote Paul Krugman, the perennial darling of progressive intelligentsia: "No, you could make me total dictator to do everything I think would work and it still wouldn’t get you up more than a few tenths." There's a reason why economics is not considered a real science: economists have a hard time explaining the past, let alone predicting the future. Their "consensus" is not usually worth the paper it's printed on.

pastage 8y ago
Was there really a consensus or did you just read some new article stating that, even stating that Zimbabwes economy would thank under Mugabe was not something economist had found consensus for.
dragonwriter 8y ago
> There was a "consensus among economists" that US economy would tank under Trump, No, there wasn't. At most, there was concensus that certain policies he proposed would have adverse impact, but not all of those policies were implemented, and policies rarely have their full impact within a 1-2 year period. > and that it can't grow at anything over 3%, No, there wasn't. > and that "those jobs are not coming back" To the extent that there has ever even a widespread belief among economists, much less a consensus on that, it was (and is) on the long-term trend in certain sectors, not about the absence of positive short-term fluctuations. > Paul Krugman, the perennial darling of progressive intelligentsia Krugman isn't a progressive or particularly a favorite of progressives. The darlings of the progressive intelligentsia don't generally have gigs in the corporate media.
- h4b4n3r0 8y ago
  Here's an article for you from May 2017 that summarizes the views of the economic "science" establishment at the time: http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-3percent-20170519-story.html http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-3percent-20170.... It aged so poorly it's pretty hilarious to read now. I'll leave the rest of your missive without comment.
JumpCrisscross 8y ago
> There was a "consensus among economists" that US economy would tank under Trump Not among any economists I talk to or read. (Which is the bulk of the mainstream.) The consensus was “tax cuts are real, tariffs are bluster.” Hence the stock market rally. The moment the second part was proved untrue, the rally faltered (but has not stalled).
dang 8y ago
Please stop doing political and ideological flamewar on Hacker News.

pastage 8y ago

Was there really a consensus or did you just read some new article stating that, even stating that Zimbabwes economy would thank under Mugabe was not something economist had found consensus for.

dragonwriter 8y ago

> There was a "consensus among economists" that US economy would tank under Trump, No, there wasn't. At most, there was concensus that certain policies he proposed would have adverse impact, but not all of those policies were implemented, and policies rarely have their full impact within a 1-2 year period. > and that it can't grow at anything over 3%, No, there wasn't. > and that "those jobs are not coming back" To the extent that there has ever even a widespread belief among economists, much less a consensus on that, it was (and is) on the long-term trend in certain sectors, not about the absence of positive short-term fluctuations. > Paul Krugman, the perennial darling of progressive intelligentsia Krugman isn't a progressive or particularly a favorite of progressives. The darlings of the progressive intelligentsia don't generally have gigs in the corporate media.

h4b4n3r0 8y ago
Here's an article for you from May 2017 that summarizes the views of the economic "science" establishment at the time: http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-3percent-20170519-story.html http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-3percent-20170.... It aged so poorly it's pretty hilarious to read now. I'll leave the rest of your missive without comment.

JumpCrisscross 8y ago

> There was a "consensus among economists" that US economy would tank under Trump Not among any economists I talk to or read. (Which is the bulk of the mainstream.) The consensus was “tax cuts are real, tariffs are bluster.” Hence the stock market rally. The moment the second part was proved untrue, the rally faltered (but has not stalled).

dang 8y ago

Please stop doing political and ideological flamewar on Hacker News.