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I would say there is push lately to picture UK situation in very black colors and I believe many of those claims are not really justified. Firstly, inflation i

I would say there is push lately to picture UK situation in very black colors and I believe many of those claims are not really justified. Firstly, inflation is not going up, at least I couldn't find any evidence of that. Secondly, looking at the UK trade partners (for instance here http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/ http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-p...) I see that UK has trade deficit will all EU countries, given the fact that UK has well develop economy they can in fact gain on leaving UK and relaying on bilateral deals (and I guess those who are bashing UK most will be first in the queue to start trading with them - Germany approach to Nord Stream that can be potentially dangerous for EU energy safety shows that when it comes to money, EU "unity" is thrown away quickly). Third, weakening pound is actually good for UK, the goods they produce are cheaper, so event if imported goods are more expensive at some point this will come to equilibrium. Fourth, UK has still hidden gems like tax havens here and there, including the one at the very center of London - quite convenient for all the rich people who, accidentally, have also a lot of political power and surely they would not like UK to be hurt too much. The only danger I see is that Scotland might try to gain independence and walk away with the oil taken from the North See, this would shrink UK domestic market and could indeed do some harm.

simonh 8y ago
>I see that UK has trade deficit will all EU countries... they can in fact gain on leaving... This is an absurd fantasy. If trade deficits on their own made you poorer, the UK and US would have been reduced to third world status decades ago. The Uk has very low unemployment, there just isn't a free labour pool available to move into manufacturing. Hands up anyone from the UK here who wants to give up their job to go on to a production line, or wants that for their children? Forcing people out of better paid more valuable jobs into low end manufacturing, driving up costs for UK consumers, to serve some mercantilist daydream won't make the UK any richer.
- Chris2048 8y ago
  > there just isn't a free labour pool available to move into manufacturing Does the government care about manufacturing? They closed the mines and moved towards a "service economy" last I heard.. > who wants to give up their job to go on to a production line, or wants that for their children? Forcing people out of better paid more valuable jobs into There are northern towns that would love those jobs. Their children are currently at lidl checkout counters and behind pub bars.
  - simonh 8y ago
    So we’re going to close all the Lidls and pubs? You’re not making any sense. By definition those people are already employed and whatever happened in manufacturing or any other sector, those jobs would still need to be done.
    - Chris2048 8y ago
      Maybe those jobs would pay more if there weren't 4 people applying to each role - enough to buy more options.
lawlessone 8y ago
>The only danger I see is that Scotland might try to gain independence Hey , Ireland here, you're completely ignoring cutting our island in two again which will very likely lead to a resurgence of the IRA. >Third, weakening pound is actually good for UK, the goods they produce are cheaper, so event if imported goods are more expensive at some point this will come to equilibrium. Yeah and the young generation brexitors have screwed over will be old by then.
- matthewmorgan 8y ago
  Look out for a resurgence of paratroopers then
TheOtherHobbes 8y ago
Firstly inflation is still over the 2% target and shows no sign of coming down - an entirely self-inflicted own goal caused by the post-Brexit drop in Sterling. Secondly, the UK is primarily a service economy, and Brexit will devastate large swathes of the service industries. Third, this is a standard talking point, and is unsupported by facts - one reason (there are others) being that increased import costs for physical goods from tariffs and a declining currency balance out any possible gain from extra income. Fourth - I don't think trying to turn tax avoidance into the UK's primary economic activity is a terribly good idea. You may disagree, of course. Scotland will indeed walk away. Ireland will... change. Gibraltar will turn into even more of a mess than it is now. And so on. There is in reality absolutely no upside to Brexit. Except for traders shorting the pound, there are no non-imaginary opportunities - only massive costs and disruptions. And propaganda and PR won't change that. There's certainly been an uptick in British flag waving in the UK, but it takes more than that to run a modern economy. The irony being that Brexit will destroy the industries the UK is a world-class player in - financial services, law, tech research, engineering, science research, and the arts.

simonh 8y ago

>I see that UK has trade deficit will all EU countries... they can in fact gain on leaving... This is an absurd fantasy. If trade deficits on their own made you poorer, the UK and US would have been reduced to third world status decades ago. The Uk has very low unemployment, there just isn't a free labour pool available to move into manufacturing. Hands up anyone from the UK here who wants to give up their job to go on to a production line, or wants that for their children? Forcing people out of better paid more valuable jobs into low end manufacturing, driving up costs for UK consumers, to serve some mercantilist daydream won't make the UK any richer.

Chris2048 8y ago
> there just isn't a free labour pool available to move into manufacturing Does the government care about manufacturing? They closed the mines and moved towards a "service economy" last I heard.. > who wants to give up their job to go on to a production line, or wants that for their children? Forcing people out of better paid more valuable jobs into There are northern towns that would love those jobs. Their children are currently at lidl checkout counters and behind pub bars.
- simonh 8y ago
  So we’re going to close all the Lidls and pubs? You’re not making any sense. By definition those people are already employed and whatever happened in manufacturing or any other sector, those jobs would still need to be done.
  - Chris2048 8y ago
    Maybe those jobs would pay more if there weren't 4 people applying to each role - enough to buy more options.

lawlessone 8y ago

>The only danger I see is that Scotland might try to gain independence Hey , Ireland here, you're completely ignoring cutting our island in two again which will very likely lead to a resurgence of the IRA. >Third, weakening pound is actually good for UK, the goods they produce are cheaper, so event if imported goods are more expensive at some point this will come to equilibrium. Yeah and the young generation brexitors have screwed over will be old by then.

matthewmorgan 8y ago
Look out for a resurgence of paratroopers then

TheOtherHobbes 8y ago

Firstly inflation is still over the 2% target and shows no sign of coming down - an entirely self-inflicted own goal caused by the post-Brexit drop in Sterling. Secondly, the UK is primarily a service economy, and Brexit will devastate large swathes of the service industries. Third, this is a standard talking point, and is unsupported by facts - one reason (there are others) being that increased import costs for physical goods from tariffs and a declining currency balance out any possible gain from extra income. Fourth - I don't think trying to turn tax avoidance into the UK's primary economic activity is a terribly good idea. You may disagree, of course. Scotland will indeed walk away. Ireland will... change. Gibraltar will turn into even more of a mess than it is now. And so on. There is in reality absolutely no upside to Brexit. Except for traders shorting the pound, there are no non-imaginary opportunities - only massive costs and disruptions. And propaganda and PR won't change that. There's certainly been an uptick in British flag waving in the UK, but it takes more than that to run a modern economy. The irony being that Brexit will destroy the industries the UK is a world-class player in - financial services, law, tech research, engineering, science research, and the arts.