8 ms·

The author supports the title of the article based on the Tesla Q2 report that the Prius has been the most common trade-in for the model 3. When I drive daily

The author supports the title of the article based on the Tesla Q2 report that the Prius has been the most common trade-in for the model 3. When I drive daily in a sea of Prii (pl. of Prius), and I get excited when I see a few model 3's a week, I feel like it's too early to make that strong of a statement.

gnicholas 8y ago
Exactly — the fact that people who buy a Tesla Model 3 are likely to be trading in a Prius doesn't mean the Model 3 is "replacing" the Prius. It means the Model 3 targets a subset of customers of the Prius and is substantially more expensive (which is why people are trading in). I live near Palo Alto and see lots of Teslas and Prii. The Teslas might be more common in parking lots along Sand Hill Road, but Prii are more common pretty much everywhere else. Based on the evidence cited, a better conclusion would be: Tesla Model 3 is Replacing The Prius Among Wealthy Buyers.
rconti 8y ago
Sure, but the Prius has been out for almost 2 decades. It's a lame almost-clickbait, almost contentless article, but it's not an unreasonable conclusion. The 3 is already EVERYWHERE in the bay area, it's by far the most common car I've ever owned, and in very short order it'll be more common than the S, which has been out for, what, 6 years now? Just last night I had another 3 immediately in front of me and an S immediately behind.
artursapek 8y ago
It's an analysis of a trend, with admittedly a small sample size thus far. But it's a trend nonetheless. Prii have been produced for decades; the 3 for maybe a year?
Finnucane 8y ago
>When I drive daily in a sea of Prii (pl. of Prius) Man, in Latin, prius isn't even a noun.
- labster 8y ago
  It would be if Latin was still a living language, and then they would invent a plural form. Not that Prius/prior is a great name choice for a futuristic car -- but still better than el Chevy No-Va.
  - rlglwx 8y ago
    FYI, the Chevy Nova story is apocryphal. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dont-go-here/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dont-go-here/
jackhack 8y ago
These two competing cars aim at very, very different markets. Forbes' breathless prediction of Toyota's hybrid market demise is a myopic opinion piece and a stretch of wishful thinking. The lower-tier Prius' are profoundly less expensive than even the mythical base-model Model 3 (which the article points out, isn't available; Tesla has said they hope to offer the base model by the end of the year). A 2017/2018 Toyota Prius can be driven off the lot for $20,000. The Model 3s that have been sold are $40,000+. That makes A Prius Prime plug-in hybrid the most direct competitor. I trust the sales figures quoted are accurate. But there's more to it: Price, availability, utility, and maintainability are big considerations once you leave the ultra-luxury price range (100k+) that is Tesla's core market. The Toyota wins in all these aspects, in my opinion. Where Toyota does not compete is the "status symbol" market.
- Alex3917 8y ago
  > A 2017/2018 Toyota Prius can be driven off the lot for $20,000. The Model 3s that have been sold are $40,000+. The Prius is basically the best car on the market if what you care about is the combination of safety, mileage, and cost. Until the model 3 able to pass the NHTSA safety testing, I don't see Tesla being able to make any serious inroads into the core Prius demographic. FWIW this is their current 'rating': https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252520DR/RWD https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252...
  - almost_usual 8y ago
    It also has two decades of being a proven reliable vehicle. Who knows what issues might creep up with the Model 3 in the span of twenty years. The other thing consumers don't realize is how hard it is right now to get replacement parts for these vehicles. I have a friend who was rear ended at a stop sign who purchased a Model 3 a month ago. They have no idea when they're going to get in the replacement bumper for their vehicle. The entire market is unpredictable and new. If you are replacing a daily driver with a Model 3 it feels like a gamble.
  - thenewwazoo 8y ago
    NHTSA hasn't crash-rated the car, but the IIHS has: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/tesla/model-3-4-door-sedan http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/tesla/model-3-4-d...
ahoka 8y ago
> When I drive daily in a sea of Prii (pl. of Prius). What's next, Teslae?
- qbrass 8y ago
  It probably stays Tesla, like the unit of measurement does.
- majewsky 8y ago
  At work, we have multiple Prometheus deployments (one per DC), so naturally we've added the plural, "Promethei", to our vocabulary.
smsm42 8y ago
> based on the Tesla Q2 report that the Prius has been the most common trade-in for the model 3 This sounds like logical fallacy - like saying if people mostly exchange dollars for pounds at London airport exchange kiosk, pound is going to take the place of the dollar on the world's currency markets. I suspect there's not even one but multiple fallacies - the fact that Prius is traded in more than other cars does not mean most of Priuses would be replaced, or that consumers of this kind of car will always prefer Tesla to Prius or other cars (not only when they already have an old car that they want to exchange for the Tesla 3).

gnicholas 8y ago

Exactly — the fact that people who buy a Tesla Model 3 are likely to be trading in a Prius doesn't mean the Model 3 is "replacing" the Prius. It means the Model 3 targets a subset of customers of the Prius and is substantially more expensive (which is why people are trading in). I live near Palo Alto and see lots of Teslas and Prii. The Teslas might be more common in parking lots along Sand Hill Road, but Prii are more common pretty much everywhere else. Based on the evidence cited, a better conclusion would be: Tesla Model 3 is Replacing The Prius Among Wealthy Buyers.

rconti 8y ago

Sure, but the Prius has been out for almost 2 decades. It's a lame almost-clickbait, almost contentless article, but it's not an unreasonable conclusion. The 3 is already EVERYWHERE in the bay area, it's by far the most common car I've ever owned, and in very short order it'll be more common than the S, which has been out for, what, 6 years now? Just last night I had another 3 immediately in front of me and an S immediately behind.

artursapek 8y ago

It's an analysis of a trend, with admittedly a small sample size thus far. But it's a trend nonetheless. Prii have been produced for decades; the 3 for maybe a year?

Finnucane 8y ago

>When I drive daily in a sea of Prii (pl. of Prius) Man, in Latin, prius isn't even a noun.

labster 8y ago
It would be if Latin was still a living language, and then they would invent a plural form. Not that Prius/prior is a great name choice for a futuristic car -- but still better than el Chevy No-Va.
- rlglwx 8y ago
  FYI, the Chevy Nova story is apocryphal. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dont-go-here/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dont-go-here/

jackhack 8y ago

These two competing cars aim at very, very different markets. Forbes' breathless prediction of Toyota's hybrid market demise is a myopic opinion piece and a stretch of wishful thinking. The lower-tier Prius' are profoundly less expensive than even the mythical base-model Model 3 (which the article points out, isn't available; Tesla has said they hope to offer the base model by the end of the year). A 2017/2018 Toyota Prius can be driven off the lot for $20,000. The Model 3s that have been sold are $40,000+. That makes A Prius Prime plug-in hybrid the most direct competitor. I trust the sales figures quoted are accurate. But there's more to it: Price, availability, utility, and maintainability are big considerations once you leave the ultra-luxury price range (100k+) that is Tesla's core market. The Toyota wins in all these aspects, in my opinion. Where Toyota does not compete is the "status symbol" market.

Alex3917 8y ago
> A 2017/2018 Toyota Prius can be driven off the lot for $20,000. The Model 3s that have been sold are $40,000+. The Prius is basically the best car on the market if what you care about is the combination of safety, mileage, and cost. Until the model 3 able to pass the NHTSA safety testing, I don't see Tesla being able to make any serious inroads into the core Prius demographic. FWIW this is their current 'rating': https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252520DR/RWD https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252...
- almost_usual 8y ago
  It also has two decades of being a proven reliable vehicle. Who knows what issues might creep up with the Model 3 in the span of twenty years. The other thing consumers don't realize is how hard it is right now to get replacement parts for these vehicles. I have a friend who was rear ended at a stop sign who purchased a Model 3 a month ago. They have no idea when they're going to get in the replacement bumper for their vehicle. The entire market is unpredictable and new. If you are replacing a daily driver with a Model 3 it feels like a gamble.
- thenewwazoo 8y ago
  NHTSA hasn't crash-rated the car, but the IIHS has: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/tesla/model-3-4-door-sedan http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/tesla/model-3-4-d...

ahoka 8y ago

> When I drive daily in a sea of Prii (pl. of Prius). What's next, Teslae?

qbrass 8y ago
It probably stays Tesla, like the unit of measurement does.
majewsky 8y ago
At work, we have multiple Prometheus deployments (one per DC), so naturally we've added the plural, "Promethei", to our vocabulary.

smsm42 8y ago

> based on the Tesla Q2 report that the Prius has been the most common trade-in for the model 3 This sounds like logical fallacy - like saying if people mostly exchange dollars for pounds at London airport exchange kiosk, pound is going to take the place of the dollar on the world's currency markets. I suspect there's not even one but multiple fallacies - the fact that Prius is traded in more than other cars does not mean most of Priuses would be replaced, or that consumers of this kind of car will always prefer Tesla to Prius or other cars (not only when they already have an old car that they want to exchange for the Tesla 3).