4 ms·
There is a real possibility of escalation as I doubt Trump will capitulate. Trump seems to like the pomp of a 'win'... real or imagined. I think it will come
by icu 8y ago
There is a real possibility of escalation as I doubt Trump will capitulate.
Trump seems to like the pomp of a 'win'... real or imagined.
I think it will come down to how quickly things escalate and if Trump runs or wins in 2020. It's possible the Chinese will hold out until then and adjust accordingly... I think the stakes are high on both sides. Thus far China has had virtually no economic push back to the transfer of jobs and wealth from the US. If the Chinese can break through, I doubt anything will stop China's accent. Likewise, if Trump doesn't persist it's possible he'll lose his voter base and it's unlikely that any other administration will have the stomach to take on China.
I think it's possible that if a few other things go Trump's way (North Korean, Iran, the wall) he'll have enough voter support for a second term. I don't see a blue wave forming if that happens, nor do I see a large pool of credible Democratic Party presidential candidates emerging no matter how uncouth Trump's rhetoric. A perfect example is Ocasio-Cortez and her socialist policies who I don't see appealing to a large enough voter base.
- mc32 8y agoIt's too early to predict outcomes. I will say the Dems putting out more Ocasio-Corteses is a gift to the Reps. The afterberners have very specific constituencies which only exist in special environments. They don't have any broad appeal.
- heurist 8y agoI think their appeal is broader than conventional Democrats. Sanders won northern rural Democrats over Clinton in the primaries, which seems to indicate a precise rift that hasn't been fully elaborated: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/national-results-map https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/national-results-map
- mc32 8y agoClinton was the worst possible broadly electable candidate dems could have put forward. Gephardt would have been better. She was and remains a devisive figure. Dems who broke didn't as much vote for Bernie or Trump but voted against Hillary.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- throw272109 8y agoReading Nassim Taleb's article [1], I feel politics will become more and more extreme in the coming years. Where it will become the far-left vs the far-right. And honestly, the US "far-left" isn't really that extreme compared to some European parties. 1. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dict...
- mc32 8y agoBut isn't that because the electorate itself doesn’t support such candidates? The Dems going hard left will make it easier for Repubs to be electable.
- AnimalMuppet 8y agoOnly to the degree that the Republicans don't go hard right.