The problem with forecasting is how its done. Much of forecasting has less to do with the actual material explanations of events and more with observed historic

The problem with forecasting is how its done. Much of forecasting has less to do with the actual material explanations of events and more with observed historical conditions and probability. A 50% chance of rain means "in all of recorded history, when conditions were similar, it rained 50% of the time," which leaves a lot to be interpreted by meteorology advancements. It does not mean that the "rain trigger" has a 50% chance of being pulled, since as we know, past results do not affect future outcomes in a pure probability, and the past conditions can only be correlated to rain, not directly tied to causation. Also, I think there's a sweet spot somewhere in between a couple of hours and hundreds of years. Maybe around a month would be good to start.