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This may be the case as of this exact moment, but I see two things here that work in China's favor: 1) Given the current balance of trade between the US and Ch

This may be the case as of this exact moment, but I see two things here that work in China's favor: 1) Given the current balance of trade between the US and China, each $1 of retaliatory Chinese tariffs has a larger impact as a percentage of trade flow than each $1 of US tariffs. 2) The Chinese economy is much more nimble and diverse than the US, and – especially with government intervention – may have an easier time developing domestic alternatives to US goods. On an unrelated note, it's interesting that they're implementing a tariff on recyclables. That could be a devastating blow to the already struggling US recycling market.

friedman23 8y ago
>1) Given the current balance of trade between the US and China, each $1 of retaliatory Chinese tariffs has a larger impact as a percentage of trade flow than each $1 of US tariffs. That doesn't benefit China. What you are saying is that China has less total trade that they can tariff than the US. >2) The Chinese economy is much more nimble and diverse than the US, and – especially with government intervention – may have an easier time developing domestic alternatives to US goods. Source? It's common knowledge that the US has the most largest and most diverse economy in the world. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/usa/ https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/usa/ https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/ https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/
- fisherjeff 8y ago
  On (1), I mean that $16B worth of goods is 12% of US->China exports, whereas it is only 3% of China->US exports, meaning that if this continues to escalate in this manner it will disproportionately affect US->China exporters. I will concede (2) was not well expressed. I just find it much much easier to imagine – due to differences in labor forces, natural resources, environmental regulations, etc. – a suddenly growing Chinese motorcycle industry than, say, a resurgent US steel industry.

friedman23 8y ago

>1) Given the current balance of trade between the US and China, each $1 of retaliatory Chinese tariffs has a larger impact as a percentage of trade flow than each $1 of US tariffs. That doesn't benefit China. What you are saying is that China has less total trade that they can tariff than the US. >2) The Chinese economy is much more nimble and diverse than the US, and – especially with government intervention – may have an easier time developing domestic alternatives to US goods. Source? It's common knowledge that the US has the most largest and most diverse economy in the world. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/usa/ https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/usa/ https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/ https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/

fisherjeff 8y ago
On (1), I mean that $16B worth of goods is 12% of US->China exports, whereas it is only 3% of China->US exports, meaning that if this continues to escalate in this manner it will disproportionately affect US->China exporters. I will concede (2) was not well expressed. I just find it much much easier to imagine – due to differences in labor forces, natural resources, environmental regulations, etc. – a suddenly growing Chinese motorcycle industry than, say, a resurgent US steel industry.