4 ms·

That's some confidence. What's the likelihood that China or the US will be around in 999 years?

dragonwriter 8y ago
> What's the likelihood that China or the US will be around in 999 years? What's more relevant is what is the chance that each will either be around or have a successor in in interest around in 999 years; the likelihood of the latter are much higher. (Of course, it's also less confidence than acquiring freehold title—an option the US had under the original lease—which assumes that the granting authority or one upholding it's decisions will exist forever. People do that with land all the time.)
- DonaldFisk 8y ago
  The Lindy Effect predicts that their future life expectancies are proportional to their current ages. Although the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, China has been around in one form or another since 1600BC. The USA has only been around since 1776 (or 1783).
  - msaharia 8y ago
    People existed in the American landmass before 1776 too. ;)
    - bilbo0s 8y ago
      In fairness, most of those were Native Americans. Most of those nations are already, effectively, gone.
vpribish 8y ago
China? like 97% US 38.5%
- User23 8y ago
  The China figure looks about right, but for the US it’s an infinitesimal we can just call 0%. The US is going to fragment much like the Roman Empire did and for much the same reasons.
  - pmwhite 8y ago
    China was nearly crushed by the Mongols but absorbed the invaders into their society and rose again to great heights. The Roman Empire cracked under the pressure of mass migrations of well-armed peoples forced to move West by climatic shifts. Perhaps there is a lesson there.
    - User23 8y ago
      The Visigothic refugees weren’t well armed, and they were fleeing Huns not climate change. It was their children who served in the Legions who then sacked Rome. Otherwise I agree.
      - jonhendry18 8y ago
        There is some discussion of the migration of the steppe nomads being due to some extent to climate issues. Sorry that this is the best citation I can find: https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/30/16568716/six-ways-climate-change-disease-toppled-roman-empire https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/30/16568716/six-way... "Tree rings suggest that a megadrought in the middle of the fourth century might have made these nomads desperate for greener pastures. As they migrated West, they terrified the highly developed kingdoms, such as those of the Goths, that had long existed along Rome’s frontier. Partly because of this climate-caused upheaval, the Goths challenged Rome’s frontiers as never before. Rome’s Western territories ended up being carved up and reconfigured as Germanic kingdoms." The Roman Climatic Optimum is the name of a warm period from roughly 250 BC to AD 400. It wouldn't be a stretch to hypothesize that the fading of that warm period may also have had effects on the steppes, leading to the migrations. The Visigoths may have been fleeing the Huns, but why were the Huns on the move in the first place?
Leary 8y ago
China 71.67% US 13.53% People's Republic 0%
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

> What's the likelihood that China or the US will be around in 999 years? What's more relevant is what is the chance that each will either be around or have a successor in in interest around in 999 years; the likelihood of the latter are much higher. (Of course, it's also less confidence than acquiring freehold title—an option the US had under the original lease—which assumes that the granting authority or one upholding it's decisions will exist forever. People do that with land all the time.)

DonaldFisk 8y ago
The Lindy Effect predicts that their future life expectancies are proportional to their current ages. Although the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, China has been around in one form or another since 1600BC. The USA has only been around since 1776 (or 1783).
- msaharia 8y ago
  People existed in the American landmass before 1776 too. ;)
  - bilbo0s 8y ago
    In fairness, most of those were Native Americans. Most of those nations are already, effectively, gone.

vpribish 8y ago

China? like 97% US 38.5%

User23 8y ago
The China figure looks about right, but for the US it’s an infinitesimal we can just call 0%. The US is going to fragment much like the Roman Empire did and for much the same reasons.
- pmwhite 8y ago
  China was nearly crushed by the Mongols but absorbed the invaders into their society and rose again to great heights. The Roman Empire cracked under the pressure of mass migrations of well-armed peoples forced to move West by climatic shifts. Perhaps there is a lesson there.
  - User23 8y ago
    The Visigothic refugees weren’t well armed, and they were fleeing Huns not climate change. It was their children who served in the Legions who then sacked Rome. Otherwise I agree.
    - jonhendry18 8y ago
      There is some discussion of the migration of the steppe nomads being due to some extent to climate issues. Sorry that this is the best citation I can find: https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/30/16568716/six-ways-climate-change-disease-toppled-roman-empire https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/30/16568716/six-way... "Tree rings suggest that a megadrought in the middle of the fourth century might have made these nomads desperate for greener pastures. As they migrated West, they terrified the highly developed kingdoms, such as those of the Goths, that had long existed along Rome’s frontier. Partly because of this climate-caused upheaval, the Goths challenged Rome’s frontiers as never before. Rome’s Western territories ended up being carved up and reconfigured as Germanic kingdoms." The Roman Climatic Optimum is the name of a warm period from roughly 250 BC to AD 400. It wouldn't be a stretch to hypothesize that the fading of that warm period may also have had effects on the steppes, leading to the migrations. The Visigoths may have been fleeing the Huns, but why were the Huns on the move in the first place?

Leary 8y ago

China 71.67% US 13.53% People's Republic 0%

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]