8 ms·

All of that is moot if it's the Saudi government buying in. Tesla are by far the most advanced of all "green" car manufacturers; over the next 7-12 years there

All of that is moot if it's the Saudi government buying in. Tesla are by far the most advanced of all "green" car manufacturers; over the next 7-12 years there will be countries banning petrol/diesel cars. If Tesla can scale their battery and car production by that time then you could be looking at a market share of Apple proportions.

chollida1 8y ago
If its the Saudi government buying in then CFIUS will have something to say about this. They normally weigh in on takeovers but this is in their jurisdiction as it would be a foreign entity taking on ownership of a US company. If CFIUS allows this or not is definitively up for debate and probably a 50=50 call at this point. At best you can say it would require some negotiation with Saudi Arabia at a time when things are great between the two countries.
- maehwasu 8y ago
  Relations between the US and Saudi Arabia are good enough right now that this actually might make the deal more likely, rather than less.
- xkjkls 8y ago
  (First, I don't see any really legitimate possibility that Saudi investment funds are going to pony up $40 billion to take Tesla private, that being said...) I don't see any possible reason why CFIUS would reject this deal. CFIUS deals with national security implications, of which Tesla is not relevant to.
paganel 8y ago
> over the next 7-12 years there will be countries banning petrol/diesel cars. Even today you cannot go to downtown Lisbon with a car built in the early 2000s, and last week the city of Turin announced that they'll basically forbid vehicles with Euro3 engines or less from the city's streets (Turin being the birthplace of FIAT and also hosting a most wonderful car museum). The writing is on the wall.
semi-extrinsic 8y ago
> over the next 7-12 years there will be countries banning petrol/diesel cars I do not think so. At most, in that timeframe we will see countries starting to ban sales of new cars which are not plug-in hybrids or better. And then remember the average lifespan of a car today is ~20 years, you will still see old pure petrol cars on the roads in 2050 is my bet. Just like you still see old cars on the road today without any catalytic converters. If you look at the electric car market today, you have lots of small cars with reasonable-ish range, one sedan with good range and two pretend-SUVs (Model X and I-pace) with good range. No manufacturer anywhere makes a pure electric estate car (station wagon); this is the most popular type of car in Europe. Nobody makes an electric pickup; this is the most popular type of car in the US. Nobody makes an actual SUV, Ford Expedition/Toyota LandCruiser/etc. style that can fit four mountain bikes in the trunk and tow a 9000 lbs trailer. Nobody makes an electric commercial vehicles of the type electricians, plumbers etc. drive. What do all these have in common? Inherently terrible aerodynamics / poor mileage and a relatively frequent need to go long distance trips. If you take current battery tech and do some optimistic extrapolation of future developments, you still end up with battery packs costing $50k+ and weighing several thousand pounds. Which isn't going to work anywhere, nobody is going to buy an $80k+ electric pickup when a diesel F150 starts below $30k. But I do think we will see reasonable plug-in hybrid versions of these car types. And Tesla will never be building cars with internal combustion engines, so they're effectively locked out of what I believe will be the biggest part of the market.
- radicalbyte 8y ago
  Sales of new cars it is, so a decade after said countries will be largely free of fossil fuel cars. The love affair with the SUV and Stations will have to end unless technology improves greatly. It sucks but it's the price we have to pay. Norway's ban starts in 2025: https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/norway-to-ban-the-sale-of-all-fossil-fuel-based-cars-by-2025-and-replace-with-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/nor... The Netherlands in 2030: https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/netherlands-dutch-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-2030-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/netherlands-dutch-ban-petrol-... France a decade later in 2040: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/06/france-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-2040-emmanuel-macron-volvo https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/06/france-ban-...
simias 8y ago
>Tesla are by far the most advanced of all "green" car manufacturers Are they? I don't follow these things closely and I didn't realize that it was the case, I always thought that Musk's great idea was not so much technical superiority but rather aiming for the super high end and market an electric "luxury" car niche. How far ahead are they compared to, say, Toyota who's been making hybrid vehicles for a while now? I also think your timeframe might be slightly optimistic, I can't really imagine a large western country banning internal combustion cars within the next 12 years, much less developping countries. I hope you're right though, I want to live in a world where ICEs are in museums.
- xkjkls 8y ago
  It really depends on what you consider the "hard" part about making electric cars to be. Do you think that the design and engineering of an electric car is the difficulty? Or is it manufacturing millions of them at scale? If the former is the real difficulty, then you might be able to make sense of the Tesla stock price; if it's the latter, then the traditional auto-manufacturers should be able to easily come into the EV market transfer their brands crush Tesla on greater manufacturing quality and efficiency.
  - cultus 8y ago
    They already have come in. The Chevy Bolt has a 230 mile range, compared to 220 for the Model 3. You can go out and buy one today for $36,000. The 3 and other models are also plagued by quality control problems. The Bolt is both more reliable and has a better interior. And a speedometer!
    - nickik 8y ago
      Dude, the Bolt is a compliance vehicle that loses a massive amount of cash every-time it is sold. Secondly, the sales of the Bolt have already collapsed and all the Tesla car outsell it. The model 3 outsells it 7 to one and this month probably 10 to 1. Just comparing range and not looking at the economy or the sales number is basically spreading FUD. > The 3 and other models are also plagued by quality control problems. The Bolt is both more reliable and has a better interior. And a speedometer! I'm sorry but that is ridiculous. The Model 3 has some quality control issues on the frame and GM does that a bit better. However if you go into the electronic, the software, the drive-train, the charging network, the suspension and so on its not even comparable in terms of quality. See for some info on an independent evaluation of the Bolt: > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl3cUMIX9Uo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl3cUMIX9Uo
xkjkls 8y ago
Apple only has 19% market share.

chollida1 8y ago

If its the Saudi government buying in then CFIUS will have something to say about this. They normally weigh in on takeovers but this is in their jurisdiction as it would be a foreign entity taking on ownership of a US company. If CFIUS allows this or not is definitively up for debate and probably a 50=50 call at this point. At best you can say it would require some negotiation with Saudi Arabia at a time when things are great between the two countries.

maehwasu 8y ago
Relations between the US and Saudi Arabia are good enough right now that this actually might make the deal more likely, rather than less.
xkjkls 8y ago
(First, I don't see any really legitimate possibility that Saudi investment funds are going to pony up $40 billion to take Tesla private, that being said...) I don't see any possible reason why CFIUS would reject this deal. CFIUS deals with national security implications, of which Tesla is not relevant to.

paganel 8y ago

> over the next 7-12 years there will be countries banning petrol/diesel cars. Even today you cannot go to downtown Lisbon with a car built in the early 2000s, and last week the city of Turin announced that they'll basically forbid vehicles with Euro3 engines or less from the city's streets (Turin being the birthplace of FIAT and also hosting a most wonderful car museum). The writing is on the wall.

semi-extrinsic 8y ago

> over the next 7-12 years there will be countries banning petrol/diesel cars I do not think so. At most, in that timeframe we will see countries starting to ban sales of new cars which are not plug-in hybrids or better. And then remember the average lifespan of a car today is ~20 years, you will still see old pure petrol cars on the roads in 2050 is my bet. Just like you still see old cars on the road today without any catalytic converters. If you look at the electric car market today, you have lots of small cars with reasonable-ish range, one sedan with good range and two pretend-SUVs (Model X and I-pace) with good range. No manufacturer anywhere makes a pure electric estate car (station wagon); this is the most popular type of car in Europe. Nobody makes an electric pickup; this is the most popular type of car in the US. Nobody makes an actual SUV, Ford Expedition/Toyota LandCruiser/etc. style that can fit four mountain bikes in the trunk and tow a 9000 lbs trailer. Nobody makes an electric commercial vehicles of the type electricians, plumbers etc. drive. What do all these have in common? Inherently terrible aerodynamics / poor mileage and a relatively frequent need to go long distance trips. If you take current battery tech and do some optimistic extrapolation of future developments, you still end up with battery packs costing $50k+ and weighing several thousand pounds. Which isn't going to work anywhere, nobody is going to buy an $80k+ electric pickup when a diesel F150 starts below $30k. But I do think we will see reasonable plug-in hybrid versions of these car types. And Tesla will never be building cars with internal combustion engines, so they're effectively locked out of what I believe will be the biggest part of the market.

radicalbyte 8y ago
Sales of new cars it is, so a decade after said countries will be largely free of fossil fuel cars. The love affair with the SUV and Stations will have to end unless technology improves greatly. It sucks but it's the price we have to pay. Norway's ban starts in 2025: https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/norway-to-ban-the-sale-of-all-fossil-fuel-based-cars-by-2025-and-replace-with-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/nor... The Netherlands in 2030: https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/netherlands-dutch-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-2030-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/netherlands-dutch-ban-petrol-... France a decade later in 2040: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/06/france-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-2040-emmanuel-macron-volvo https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/06/france-ban-...

simias 8y ago

>Tesla are by far the most advanced of all "green" car manufacturers Are they? I don't follow these things closely and I didn't realize that it was the case, I always thought that Musk's great idea was not so much technical superiority but rather aiming for the super high end and market an electric "luxury" car niche. How far ahead are they compared to, say, Toyota who's been making hybrid vehicles for a while now? I also think your timeframe might be slightly optimistic, I can't really imagine a large western country banning internal combustion cars within the next 12 years, much less developping countries. I hope you're right though, I want to live in a world where ICEs are in museums.

xkjkls 8y ago
It really depends on what you consider the "hard" part about making electric cars to be. Do you think that the design and engineering of an electric car is the difficulty? Or is it manufacturing millions of them at scale? If the former is the real difficulty, then you might be able to make sense of the Tesla stock price; if it's the latter, then the traditional auto-manufacturers should be able to easily come into the EV market transfer their brands crush Tesla on greater manufacturing quality and efficiency.
- cultus 8y ago
  They already have come in. The Chevy Bolt has a 230 mile range, compared to 220 for the Model 3. You can go out and buy one today for $36,000. The 3 and other models are also plagued by quality control problems. The Bolt is both more reliable and has a better interior. And a speedometer!
  - nickik 8y ago
    Dude, the Bolt is a compliance vehicle that loses a massive amount of cash every-time it is sold. Secondly, the sales of the Bolt have already collapsed and all the Tesla car outsell it. The model 3 outsells it 7 to one and this month probably 10 to 1. Just comparing range and not looking at the economy or the sales number is basically spreading FUD. > The 3 and other models are also plagued by quality control problems. The Bolt is both more reliable and has a better interior. And a speedometer! I'm sorry but that is ridiculous. The Model 3 has some quality control issues on the frame and GM does that a bit better. However if you go into the electronic, the software, the drive-train, the charging network, the suspension and so on its not even comparable in terms of quality. See for some info on an independent evaluation of the Bolt: > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl3cUMIX9Uo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl3cUMIX9Uo

xkjkls 8y ago

Apple only has 19% market share.