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Hong Kong government granted US consulate a rare 999-year lease in the 1990s
- bilbo0s 8y agoThat's some confidence. What's the likelihood that China or the US will be around in 999 years?
- dragonwriter 8y ago> What's the likelihood that China or the US will be around in 999 years? What's more relevant is what is the chance that each will either be around or have a successor in in interest around in 999 years; the likelihood of the latter are much higher. (Of course, it's also less confidence than acquiring freehold title—an option the US had under the original lease—which assumes that the granting authority or one upholding it's decisions will exist forever. People do that with land all the time.)
- DonaldFisk 8y agoThe Lindy Effect predicts that their future life expectancies are proportional to their current ages. Although the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, China has been around in one form or another since 1600BC. The USA has only been around since 1776 (or 1783).
- vpribish 8y agoChina? like 97% US 38.5%
- User23 8y agoThe China figure looks about right, but for the US it’s an infinitesimal we can just call 0%. The US is going to fragment much like the Roman Empire did and for much the same reasons.
- pmwhite 8y agoChina was nearly crushed by the Mongols but absorbed the invaders into their society and rose again to great heights. The Roman Empire cracked under the pressure of mass migrations of well-armed peoples forced to move West by climatic shifts. Perhaps there is a lesson there.
- User23 8y agoThe Visigothic refugees weren’t well armed, and they were fleeing Huns not climate change. It was their children who served in the Legions who then sacked Rome. Otherwise I agree.
- jonhendry18 8y agoThere is some discussion of the migration of the steppe nomads being due to some extent to climate issues. Sorry that this is the best citation I can find: https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/30/16568716/six-ways-climate-change-disease-toppled-roman-empire https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/30/16568716/six-way... "Tree rings suggest that a megadrought in the middle of the fourth century might have made these nomads desperate for greener pastures. As they migrated West, they terrified the highly developed kingdoms, such as those of the Goths, that had long existed along Rome’s frontier. Partly because of this climate-caused upheaval, the Goths challenged Rome’s frontiers as never before. Rome’s Western territories ended up being carved up and reconfigured as Germanic kingdoms." The Roman Climatic Optimum is the name of a warm period from roughly 250 BC to AD 400. It wouldn't be a stretch to hypothesize that the fading of that warm period may also have had effects on the steppes, leading to the migrations. The Visigoths may have been fleeing the Huns, but why were the Huns on the move in the first place?
- Leary 8y agoChina 71.67% US 13.53% People's Republic 0%
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- yardie 8y agoIt's purely symbolic. A lease is still a contract between 2 parties. If one or both cease to exist so goes the lease.
- ceejayoz 8y agoThat may not always be the case. It's not like Castro was a big fan of Guantanamo Bay...
- refurb 8y agoGreat point. The final arbitrator of all contracts is the threat of violence. If you can't back it up, it doesn't matter what the contract says. Also the Mexican land grants in California. The US still respects the terms of those agreements.
- bydo 8y agoEminent domain exists and is frequently used in China (as in the US). Do the terms of this lease somehow exempt the US consulate from it?
- aplummer 8y agoThey are saying that the nature of the party (global superpower) is the final exemption criteria for every kind of obligation if you play that card.
- evadne 8y agoIt came to mind that Hong Kong was “leased” for 99 years too.
- freeone3000 8y agoYes. And it was given back at the end of that period. It's a bit weird to lease a city but it worked out fine.
- DonaldFisk 8y agoThe New Territories were leased for 99 years in the 1898 Second Convention of Peking. Hong Kong Island was ceded in perpetuity in the 1842 Treaty of Nanking. Kowloon, except for the walled city, and Stonecutter's Island, were ceded in perpetuity in the 1860 Convention of Peking, Article 6.
- jobigoud 8y ago> Kowloon, except for the walled city I thought Kowloon was the walled city.
- emmanuel_1234 8y agoNope. The Opium wars and the subsequent status of the Kowloon Walled City are really cool stories. Funny to think that the fortunes of today's Hong Kong got rich selling drug. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowloon_Walled_City https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowloon_Walled_City
- redisman 8y agoThey were like, damn turns out 99 years isn't eternity after all. Well - just add another 9 to this contract and we'll be good to go.
- bmcusick 8y agoMy god. It's an actual, blatant violation of the Rule Against Perpetuities. [0] And here I thought I'd never use this knowledge outside of a Property Law exam. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_against_perpetuities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_against_perpetuities
- dosy 8y agoVery interesting. But can lifetime be measured on “corporate persons”? Like a company , or org