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You bring up important issues, but there doesn't seem to be an reason to think they are the result of automation. There have been periods in the past with highe

You bring up important issues, but there doesn't seem to be an reason to think they are the result of automation. There have been periods in the past with higher levels of productivity growth that have corresponded with a decrease in inequality. Now we're in a period of low productivity growth corresponding with an increase in inequality. As for self driving trucks, I remember people telling me a decade ago that they would have lead to mass unemployment by now. The predictions of an impending automation crisis haven't had a great track record.

mdorazio 8y ago
Is there a reason to think they are not the result of automation? Take a look at [1] - robots brought into US factories are directly responsible for lost jobs and lower wages. And I think you must be pointing to a state of affairs that hasn't been true for at least 40 years - look at the chart in [2]. I'm not interested in what may have been the case 60 years ago in post WWII boom-America, I'm interested in what the trends have been during the lifetime of the average reader here. As for self driving trucks, who told you that? Per my prior comment, we're not there yet, but it is definitely coming. Automation hasn't reached driving yet and it won't in any significant way for at least another 5 years, but as soon as the tech is ready, adoption is going to be rapid. But saying "it hasn't happened yet, so clearly it's bogus" is like building a cabin on an active volcano and saying, "they said it would erupt within the last 5 years and that didn't happen, so clearly it's not going to erupt ever". Just because a predicted timeline is incorrect does not mean the predicted event won't come to pass. [1] https://www.recode.net/2017/3/28/15094424/jobs-eliminated-new-robots-workforce-industrial https://www.recode.net/2017/3/28/15094424/jobs-eliminated-ne... [2] http://evonomics.com/productivity-is-slowing-inequality-is-growing-heres-whats-causing-it/ http://evonomics.com/productivity-is-slowing-inequality-is-g...
ewjordan 8y ago
A decade ago self driving trucks existed only in thoughtspace; today they're actually being built, driven, and refined. That the old estimates we're wrong doesn't mean the tech will never happen, it's almost available right now. Long haul trips are arguably the easiest to automate, since the routes are stable and easily mapped, even if the last few miles or exceptional conditions will still require human intervention (which could be remotely handled). Betting on widespread automation of trucking is probably one of the safest AI-related bets you could make right now.

mdorazio 8y ago

Is there a reason to think they are not the result of automation? Take a look at [1] - robots brought into US factories are directly responsible for lost jobs and lower wages. And I think you must be pointing to a state of affairs that hasn't been true for at least 40 years - look at the chart in [2]. I'm not interested in what may have been the case 60 years ago in post WWII boom-America, I'm interested in what the trends have been during the lifetime of the average reader here. As for self driving trucks, who told you that? Per my prior comment, we're not there yet, but it is definitely coming. Automation hasn't reached driving yet and it won't in any significant way for at least another 5 years, but as soon as the tech is ready, adoption is going to be rapid. But saying "it hasn't happened yet, so clearly it's bogus" is like building a cabin on an active volcano and saying, "they said it would erupt within the last 5 years and that didn't happen, so clearly it's not going to erupt ever". Just because a predicted timeline is incorrect does not mean the predicted event won't come to pass. [1] https://www.recode.net/2017/3/28/15094424/jobs-eliminated-new-robots-workforce-industrial https://www.recode.net/2017/3/28/15094424/jobs-eliminated-ne... [2] http://evonomics.com/productivity-is-slowing-inequality-is-growing-heres-whats-causing-it/ http://evonomics.com/productivity-is-slowing-inequality-is-g...

ewjordan 8y ago

A decade ago self driving trucks existed only in thoughtspace; today they're actually being built, driven, and refined. That the old estimates we're wrong doesn't mean the tech will never happen, it's almost available right now. Long haul trips are arguably the easiest to automate, since the routes are stable and easily mapped, even if the last few miles or exceptional conditions will still require human intervention (which could be remotely handled). Betting on widespread automation of trucking is probably one of the safest AI-related bets you could make right now.