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While I'm sympathetic to this point of view, it's really hard to take seriously a conclusion like "no impact". California's murder rate peaked around 1994. Th

While I'm sympathetic to this point of view, it's really hard to take seriously a conclusion like "no impact". California's murder rate peaked around 1994. Three-strikes sentencing was enacted that same year in CA and about a dozen other states. Are we to believe that the 50% decline in murders since then is not, at least in part, a result of the incarceration of repeat criminals? I guess we'll find out soon enough now that 3-strikes is being considerably softened.

grandmczeb 8y ago
Property and violent crime rates started dropping in California in the early 90s[1], along with the rest of the country, before three-strikes was enacted. Crime in California has also declined at rates similar to states without three-strikes policies (e.g. Illinois). [1] http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crime-trends-1.png http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crime-trends-1.png
- SaintGhurka 8y ago
  Using the same site you referenced, violent crime peaked around 1993, the year before three strikes. http://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/ http://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/ Also, the number of homicides specifically peaked in 1993 at 4,096 and dropped almost every year for the next 25 years. It looks like it bottomed out in 2014 and started climbing again. http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/cacrime.htm http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/cacrime.htm It's true that rates in other states dropped also. You mentioned Illinois who did not enact a three strikes law (but its neighbors did, as did the federal government). Note that it didn't see improvement on the same scale as California - and now Chicago's murder rate is so bad that it makes the national news almost every week. I really don't know that the halving of the murder rate should be credited to tougher sentencing, but it coincides pretty well - so well that when I see claims that they have zero effect I can't help but assume that the findings are agenda-driven. But tough sentencing laws are falling out of favor and being reversed - or partially reversed. Maybe the homicide rate will stay low and 3-strikes laws will be completely discredited.
- polski-g 8y ago
  Leaded fuel was banned in the 70s so the people that were of criminal age and exposed to lead were aging out of the criminal pool.
ghostbrainalpha 8y ago
There is a theory from Freakonomics author Steven Levvit that the crime rate drop had much more to do with legalized abortion than the 3 strikes rule. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk6gOeggViw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk6gOeggViw Primary evidence being that the crime rate started dropping everywhere in a similar proportion around that time, even in states without a 3 Strikes rule.

grandmczeb 8y ago

Property and violent crime rates started dropping in California in the early 90s[1], along with the rest of the country, before three-strikes was enacted. Crime in California has also declined at rates similar to states without three-strikes policies (e.g. Illinois). [1] http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crime-trends-1.png http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crime-trends-1.png

SaintGhurka 8y ago
Using the same site you referenced, violent crime peaked around 1993, the year before three strikes. http://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/ http://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/ Also, the number of homicides specifically peaked in 1993 at 4,096 and dropped almost every year for the next 25 years. It looks like it bottomed out in 2014 and started climbing again. http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/cacrime.htm http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/cacrime.htm It's true that rates in other states dropped also. You mentioned Illinois who did not enact a three strikes law (but its neighbors did, as did the federal government). Note that it didn't see improvement on the same scale as California - and now Chicago's murder rate is so bad that it makes the national news almost every week. I really don't know that the halving of the murder rate should be credited to tougher sentencing, but it coincides pretty well - so well that when I see claims that they have zero effect I can't help but assume that the findings are agenda-driven. But tough sentencing laws are falling out of favor and being reversed - or partially reversed. Maybe the homicide rate will stay low and 3-strikes laws will be completely discredited.
polski-g 8y ago
Leaded fuel was banned in the 70s so the people that were of criminal age and exposed to lead were aging out of the criminal pool.

ghostbrainalpha 8y ago

There is a theory from Freakonomics author Steven Levvit that the crime rate drop had much more to do with legalized abortion than the 3 strikes rule. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk6gOeggViw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk6gOeggViw Primary evidence being that the crime rate started dropping everywhere in a similar proportion around that time, even in states without a 3 Strikes rule.