5 ms·

I am old enough to have been through several cycles of people announcing various calamities ahead. I'm not going to list them. Your question was about finding p

I am old enough to have been through several cycles of people announcing various calamities ahead. I'm not going to list them. Your question was about finding perspective, not about this particular issue. For each of these, when confronted by my friends, I have asked them to write down what they are worried about and what disaster they see in 10-20 years. Then later, after that time frame has passed, come back and make an assessment of where we are now. By writing it down they get to judge whether or not their current assessment of the future turns out to be actually as bleak as they imagine it to be. This has not been the case so far. Oddly enough, I think many people find that disappointing as well. I firmly believe when the end of the world finally arrives, there will be a ton of pissed-off people that it didn't end the way they were worrying about all those years. But after being disappointed and a little angry, most of my friends have found some solace and calm in the fact that it's never as bad as you think it's going to be. This has nothing to do with the climate. The same can be said of many, many other personal tragedies that do not involve it. Writing it down and then honestly looking at your thoughts later is a great way to separate your natural inclination for disaster-seeking from what's actually occurring. Everybody has a natural "set point" for either being optimistic or fearing the future. It's important to learn what yours is.

revscat 8y ago
Conversely, this attitude is why I believe that humanity won’t make it. Selfish faith does not affect actual temperatures. Faith does not decrease measured CO2 levels, or stop the proliferation of extinctions, or stop the conflagrations currently burning out of control in California, Spain, and elsewhere. Selfish faith doesn’t restore migratory patterns, or ocean temperatures, or arctic ice levels. Record and ever worsening heat waves don’t stop advancing simply because we reply with a “oh, I’m sure everything will work out.” But hey, someone predicted something wrong in the past, so that means I can brush my hands of it. A psychologist would certainly say that’s a healthy attitude to take, but perhaps what is needed to stave off extinction are unhealthy ones. But that might upset someone, and we wouldn’t want to do that now would we.
- Recurecur 8y ago
  > Conversely, this attitude is why I believe that humanity won’t make it. Selfish faith does not affect actual temperatures. Faith does not decrease measured CO2 levels, or stop the proliferation of extinctions, or stop the conflagrations currently burning out of control in California, Spain, and elsewhere. Selfish faith doesn’t restore migratory patterns, or ocean temperatures, or arctic ice levels. Record and ever worsening heat waves don’t stop advancing simply because we reply with a “oh, I’m sure everything will work out.” None of that is relevant. What is relevant is that there are known mitigations, which are simply a matter of engineering. If in fact climate sensitivity to CO2 is at the high end, humanity will have no choice but to geoengineer. There are several approaches that could provide outcomes ranging from less severe warming, to returning the Earth to the temperature regime of 280 PPM CO2. The crux of having this capability is further scientific progress, and development of high-density power sources like advanced fission reactors and fusion. Humans should also aggressively colonize elsewhere in the solar system, to avoid the "all eggs in one basket" problem - starting with the Moon, not Mars. The Chinese are on the right track there, and the US seems to be coming around. In the shorter term, the best thing is to work towards win-win outcomes between economics and cleaner energy. Cheaper solar cells will lessen the use of fossil fuels. Same with better wind turbines (I vote for quiet to be one of the main design criteria ;). Support advanced fission reactor designs like those from ThorCon, Terrapower, and NuScale - they are also cost effective, safe, and produce no CO2 or other pollution. Humanity has a bright future. The only things standing in the way are stupidity, defeatism and negativity.
  - mr_overalls 8y ago
    > simply a matter of engineering. Remember that these are hypothetical, untried mitigations. > Humans should also aggressively colonize elsewhere in the solar system Another idea that requires decades or centuries of continued technological progress - which in turn depends heavily on stable societies and supporting ecosystems. I'm a bright green environmentalist, too - I think that the convergence of technological change and social innovation provides the most successful path to sustainable development - but you're being a bit overly optimistic here, I think.
  - 8y ago
landryraccoon 8y ago
> I have asked them to write down what they are worried about and what disaster they see in 10-20 years. Isn't this a bit of selection bias? Not all of my friends from 20 years ago are still here, and even fewer of them (maybe myself included) won't be here 20 years from now. Maybe their worst fears did come true. The world didn't end for all of us, but it definitely ended for some of us. Sure, everything seems fine, right up until it isn't.

revscat 8y ago

Conversely, this attitude is why I believe that humanity won’t make it. Selfish faith does not affect actual temperatures. Faith does not decrease measured CO2 levels, or stop the proliferation of extinctions, or stop the conflagrations currently burning out of control in California, Spain, and elsewhere. Selfish faith doesn’t restore migratory patterns, or ocean temperatures, or arctic ice levels. Record and ever worsening heat waves don’t stop advancing simply because we reply with a “oh, I’m sure everything will work out.” But hey, someone predicted something wrong in the past, so that means I can brush my hands of it. A psychologist would certainly say that’s a healthy attitude to take, but perhaps what is needed to stave off extinction are unhealthy ones. But that might upset someone, and we wouldn’t want to do that now would we.

Recurecur 8y ago
> Conversely, this attitude is why I believe that humanity won’t make it. Selfish faith does not affect actual temperatures. Faith does not decrease measured CO2 levels, or stop the proliferation of extinctions, or stop the conflagrations currently burning out of control in California, Spain, and elsewhere. Selfish faith doesn’t restore migratory patterns, or ocean temperatures, or arctic ice levels. Record and ever worsening heat waves don’t stop advancing simply because we reply with a “oh, I’m sure everything will work out.” None of that is relevant. What is relevant is that there are known mitigations, which are simply a matter of engineering. If in fact climate sensitivity to CO2 is at the high end, humanity will have no choice but to geoengineer. There are several approaches that could provide outcomes ranging from less severe warming, to returning the Earth to the temperature regime of 280 PPM CO2. The crux of having this capability is further scientific progress, and development of high-density power sources like advanced fission reactors and fusion. Humans should also aggressively colonize elsewhere in the solar system, to avoid the "all eggs in one basket" problem - starting with the Moon, not Mars. The Chinese are on the right track there, and the US seems to be coming around. In the shorter term, the best thing is to work towards win-win outcomes between economics and cleaner energy. Cheaper solar cells will lessen the use of fossil fuels. Same with better wind turbines (I vote for quiet to be one of the main design criteria ;). Support advanced fission reactor designs like those from ThorCon, Terrapower, and NuScale - they are also cost effective, safe, and produce no CO2 or other pollution. Humanity has a bright future. The only things standing in the way are stupidity, defeatism and negativity.
- mr_overalls 8y ago
  > simply a matter of engineering. Remember that these are hypothetical, untried mitigations. > Humans should also aggressively colonize elsewhere in the solar system Another idea that requires decades or centuries of continued technological progress - which in turn depends heavily on stable societies and supporting ecosystems. I'm a bright green environmentalist, too - I think that the convergence of technological change and social innovation provides the most successful path to sustainable development - but you're being a bit overly optimistic here, I think.
- 8y ago

landryraccoon 8y ago

> I have asked them to write down what they are worried about and what disaster they see in 10-20 years. Isn't this a bit of selection bias? Not all of my friends from 20 years ago are still here, and even fewer of them (maybe myself included) won't be here 20 years from now. Maybe their worst fears did come true. The world didn't end for all of us, but it definitely ended for some of us. Sure, everything seems fine, right up until it isn't.