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The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. That is the

The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. That is the policy, and that is what will happen. This is why China is using espionage, soft power, and cultural imperialism to annex Taiwan.

deleted 8y ago
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sonnyblarney 8y ago
"The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. " Oh gosh, not quite. This is a kind of cold war policy with caveats. If China escalates militarily, US will likely tit-for tat and yes, may be involved in actual, armed conflict as it escalates Ex: China sends Aircraft carrier, US does as well, small gunboat firefights ensue, US participates, maybe some naval firing back and forth, Chinese marines found on Taiwan, US marines land as well, China does electronic attacks, US response. But ... In an unlikely 'Blitzkrieg' scenario, whereby China launches a very swift and unanticipated attack on Taiwan - say: multi-beachead marine landing, paratroopers, 5th column destruction of comms equipment, drone and cruise missile attacks, total electronic-warfare shutdown - and the Chinese have militarily occupied most of the major and important installations in say, 48 hours ... Do you think the US is going to ramp up 500K soldiers and 'invade Taiwan'? It would be logistically difficult, and militarily questionable: the Chinese are well armed, and can fight, and landing beachheads in that scenario, so far from home, against a large enemy may simply be futile. In fact, the Chinese may possibly be able to easily defend themselves against very vulnerable US Navy ships these days. The US/world reaction may be to use the US Navy to blockade Taiwan and all of China, and to launch electronic and economic attack on China. But I doubt if the US would respond in a full-on WW3 scenario. As the commenter posted, a gradual, even softer-than-Crimea takeover is much more likely. Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum. The Chinese have the advantage of taking a very 'long view' of things and can have '50 year plans' for such things. Western democracy unfortunately doesn't allow for that so often.
- whatyoucantsay 8y ago
  If the US didn't honour its commitments and let Taiwan fall, Japan, Korea and all other neighbours would no longer be able to rely on US protection and seek their own weapons of mass destruction. The instability of that scenario would almost certainly lead to WW3 and be more detrimental to US interests than a skirmish over Taiwan. > Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum. You are ignorant. Taiwanese identification with China has been falling steadily for decades. According to current polling, somewhat less than half would support a declaration of independence and the inevitable conflict that would come with it, but a small single digit percentage are willing to join the PRC.
  - sonnyblarney 8y ago
    No. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would not directly threaten Japan or Korea as China has never had any claim or interest there, furthermore, it would massively increase Asian-US/EU ties. It would rock the world and everyone would be setting up new military ties to ensure border integrity. It doesn't matter how popular Chinese reunification is today, because the mainland is getting ever more powerful and can orchestrate outcomes they desire. Did you think that Crimeans were pinning to rejoin Russia before the stealth-takeover? Not really. "You are ignorant" - get off of HN if you're going rip like that.
    - whatyoucantsay 8y ago
      What is this "reunification" you speak of? Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Before its current state, it was part of Japan. You could go back to the peak of the Qing Dynasty, but clearly that isn't a nation that currently exists. It's like talking about "reunifying" Austria with Germany based on the previous borders of the Holy Roman Empire which once contained both.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

sonnyblarney 8y ago

"The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. " Oh gosh, not quite. This is a kind of cold war policy with caveats. If China escalates militarily, US will likely tit-for tat and yes, may be involved in actual, armed conflict as it escalates Ex: China sends Aircraft carrier, US does as well, small gunboat firefights ensue, US participates, maybe some naval firing back and forth, Chinese marines found on Taiwan, US marines land as well, China does electronic attacks, US response. But ... In an unlikely 'Blitzkrieg' scenario, whereby China launches a very swift and unanticipated attack on Taiwan - say: multi-beachead marine landing, paratroopers, 5th column destruction of comms equipment, drone and cruise missile attacks, total electronic-warfare shutdown - and the Chinese have militarily occupied most of the major and important installations in say, 48 hours ... Do you think the US is going to ramp up 500K soldiers and 'invade Taiwan'? It would be logistically difficult, and militarily questionable: the Chinese are well armed, and can fight, and landing beachheads in that scenario, so far from home, against a large enemy may simply be futile. In fact, the Chinese may possibly be able to easily defend themselves against very vulnerable US Navy ships these days. The US/world reaction may be to use the US Navy to blockade Taiwan and all of China, and to launch electronic and economic attack on China. But I doubt if the US would respond in a full-on WW3 scenario. As the commenter posted, a gradual, even softer-than-Crimea takeover is much more likely. Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum. The Chinese have the advantage of taking a very 'long view' of things and can have '50 year plans' for such things. Western democracy unfortunately doesn't allow for that so often.

whatyoucantsay 8y ago
If the US didn't honour its commitments and let Taiwan fall, Japan, Korea and all other neighbours would no longer be able to rely on US protection and seek their own weapons of mass destruction. The instability of that scenario would almost certainly lead to WW3 and be more detrimental to US interests than a skirmish over Taiwan. > Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum. You are ignorant. Taiwanese identification with China has been falling steadily for decades. According to current polling, somewhat less than half would support a declaration of independence and the inevitable conflict that would come with it, but a small single digit percentage are willing to join the PRC.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  No. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would not directly threaten Japan or Korea as China has never had any claim or interest there, furthermore, it would massively increase Asian-US/EU ties. It would rock the world and everyone would be setting up new military ties to ensure border integrity. It doesn't matter how popular Chinese reunification is today, because the mainland is getting ever more powerful and can orchestrate outcomes they desire. Did you think that Crimeans were pinning to rejoin Russia before the stealth-takeover? Not really. "You are ignorant" - get off of HN if you're going rip like that.
  - whatyoucantsay 8y ago
    What is this "reunification" you speak of? Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Before its current state, it was part of Japan. You could go back to the peak of the Qing Dynasty, but clearly that isn't a nation that currently exists. It's like talking about "reunifying" Austria with Germany based on the previous borders of the Holy Roman Empire which once contained both.