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The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, whic

by 21 8y ago

The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea. EU will likely join in. What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.

sonnyblarney 8y ago
"What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway." China views Taiwan as inexorably part of their homeland. The existence of a 'separate Taiwan' is kind of like a permanent stain to them. Imagine if during major American political upheaval, Texas became it's own state again, and after takeover by Central/South American political entities, decided not to rejoin the rest of the US as the political situation stabilized. Americans wouldn't rest until they reclaimed it. I'm not justifying it and personally I would have liked to have seen a 'Chinese Federation' i.e. Hong Kong, Taiwan, mainland China, possibly even Manchuria as separate entities, possibly with 'Tibet' as managed-but-autonomous region. Instead of a single autocracy.
- chrischen 8y ago
  Taiwan also views China as part of its land.
  - onetimemanytime 8y ago
    Win win then....let them join each other :) China is going to wait for the right moment, decades or centuries from now, but unless China is split in several countries /weakened I don't see Taiwan lasting. If I were Mongolia I'd be losing sleep too. Siberia too, but at least Russia has thousands of nukes. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...
foepys 8y ago
Aren't there massive gas fields suspected in the ocean around there? Extending the territory and claiming the fields could be a motive.
thwawayjuju 8y ago
From a military perspective, Taiwan is a extremely important to China because of where it is located. Their fear is that the US would use Taiwan as a base of operation to refuel and attack China. It’s in their best interest to reclaim that land. Like all politicians, domestic policies are usually harder to gain political points vs foreign policies. It is also much harder to fix when problems arise. This is why head of states like the US president have traditionally spent more time on foreign policy. All leaders think about their legacy. If Xi can reclaim Taiwan, he will be remembered for decades. That is powerful motivation for any leader, especially one that is elderly. The US is currently run by a lunatic. Are you so sure Trump would impose sanctions? Most of his decisions are made in a fit of rage, rather than thoughtful thinking. The fact he met with Kim, should tell you something about his decision making. The problem is Americans has played this big brother role for the last 50 years, but now there is a potential contender on the playground. I am not sure the US can do much here considering China is cash rich to withstand any sanctions you impose on them. China can use Trumps playbook too if they wanted like subsidising farmers, but they haven’t cause they don’t need to.
- dogma1138 8y ago
  The US has South Korea, Japan and Guam. Taiwan isn’t of military strategic importance to the US nor would it likely serve as a base for any assault on the mainland.
  - thwawayjuju 8y ago
    I said strategic importance to China. Not the USA. South Korea, Japan, and Guam are a drop in the bucket compared to China in terms of military might and economy, unfortunately.
    - dogma1138 8y ago
      Those all host US military bases, Guam isn’t even a nation it’s a US territory. I suggest you look up US deployments and see why Taiwan while is of a huge cultural, political and ideological significance isn’t that much of a strategic significance in a conflict there are a lot of assets in theater already and the US while being a military backer of Taiwan limits its presence and support in order to never make them significant enough to justify an invasion.
whatyoucantsay 8y ago
> EU will likely join in. Doubtful. The EU, and France in particular, has been selling China weapons for over a decade.
- 21 8y ago
  France canceled the delivery of two completed ships built for Russia, a $1.5 billion contract, because of Crimea.

by 21 8y ago

sonnyblarney 8y ago

"What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway." China views Taiwan as inexorably part of their homeland. The existence of a 'separate Taiwan' is kind of like a permanent stain to them. Imagine if during major American political upheaval, Texas became it's own state again, and after takeover by Central/South American political entities, decided not to rejoin the rest of the US as the political situation stabilized. Americans wouldn't rest until they reclaimed it. I'm not justifying it and personally I would have liked to have seen a 'Chinese Federation' i.e. Hong Kong, Taiwan, mainland China, possibly even Manchuria as separate entities, possibly with 'Tibet' as managed-but-autonomous region. Instead of a single autocracy.

chrischen 8y ago
Taiwan also views China as part of its land.
- onetimemanytime 8y ago
  Win win then....let them join each other :) China is going to wait for the right moment, decades or centuries from now, but unless China is split in several countries /weakened I don't see Taiwan lasting. If I were Mongolia I'd be losing sleep too. Siberia too, but at least Russia has thousands of nukes. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...

foepys 8y ago

Aren't there massive gas fields suspected in the ocean around there? Extending the territory and claiming the fields could be a motive.

thwawayjuju 8y ago

From a military perspective, Taiwan is a extremely important to China because of where it is located. Their fear is that the US would use Taiwan as a base of operation to refuel and attack China. It’s in their best interest to reclaim that land. Like all politicians, domestic policies are usually harder to gain political points vs foreign policies. It is also much harder to fix when problems arise. This is why head of states like the US president have traditionally spent more time on foreign policy. All leaders think about their legacy. If Xi can reclaim Taiwan, he will be remembered for decades. That is powerful motivation for any leader, especially one that is elderly. The US is currently run by a lunatic. Are you so sure Trump would impose sanctions? Most of his decisions are made in a fit of rage, rather than thoughtful thinking. The fact he met with Kim, should tell you something about his decision making. The problem is Americans has played this big brother role for the last 50 years, but now there is a potential contender on the playground. I am not sure the US can do much here considering China is cash rich to withstand any sanctions you impose on them. China can use Trumps playbook too if they wanted like subsidising farmers, but they haven’t cause they don’t need to.

dogma1138 8y ago
The US has South Korea, Japan and Guam. Taiwan isn’t of military strategic importance to the US nor would it likely serve as a base for any assault on the mainland.
- thwawayjuju 8y ago
  I said strategic importance to China. Not the USA. South Korea, Japan, and Guam are a drop in the bucket compared to China in terms of military might and economy, unfortunately.
  - dogma1138 8y ago
    Those all host US military bases, Guam isn’t even a nation it’s a US territory. I suggest you look up US deployments and see why Taiwan while is of a huge cultural, political and ideological significance isn’t that much of a strategic significance in a conflict there are a lot of assets in theater already and the US while being a military backer of Taiwan limits its presence and support in order to never make them significant enough to justify an invasion.

whatyoucantsay 8y ago

> EU will likely join in. Doubtful. The EU, and France in particular, has been selling China weapons for over a decade.

21 8y ago
France canceled the delivery of two completed ships built for Russia, a $1.5 billion contract, because of Crimea.