5 ms·

Going a bit controversial here but will self-driving cars be disrupted before they even take off. The big factor that I feel will impact how autonomous travel

Going a bit controversial here but will self-driving cars be disrupted before they even take off. The big factor that I feel will impact how autonomous travel will evolve in the future is drone taxies/cars. Providing there is a change in the regulation to support self-driving flying cars/drones, the big advantage is that there would be no existing rules created for human driving (road signs, traffic lights...) to adhere to. A centralized system could calculate the best route to fly someone from A to B without the complexities that self-driving cars have to solve. And flying would clearly be much faster as well. Dubai, for example, is already testing, what comes after will be interesting. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41399406 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41399406

kayoone 8y ago
i doubt having hundreds or thousands of heavy vehicles flying above peoples heads is a good idea and will probably not go well with authorities.
- al_ramich 8y ago
  agree but it would have to be regulated with virtual/dedicated road lines relatively high up to prevent noise/light blocking issues. if centrally managed, the issues you describe could be minimized.
friendly_chap 8y ago
Given that we are probably heading into an economy where energy will get more and more expensive (at least temporarily, due to a potential oil crunch coming), not sure how flying will be an economical way of transport.
- samsonradu 8y ago
  Can you elaborate? Why might a oil crunch be coming?
  - deathhand 8y ago
    Not parent but https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
    - slfnflctd 8y ago
      They've been talking about peak oil since the late 1950s, and just about every single prediction about it has been wrong. I got caught up in the hype about it 5-10 years ago, and it took a while before I realized it was mostly a garden variety doomsday cult. [Yes there is such a thing as peak oil, and we may have even already hit it, but it's not going to destroy civilization as some have loudly declared.] Gasoline consumption is not going up the way it used to, and there apparently is a whole lot more oil than a lot of people thought-- I'm guessing due to a combination of countries not providing correct numbers (it's a national security issue after all), new oilfield discoveries and new extraction techniques. Add in more efficient vehicles and alternative energy sources, and you quickly realize the worst that's going to happen is some gradually increased prices for products & services most closely tied to the current cost of fuel.
- al_ramich 8y ago
  electric would be the way it goes and you could argue that flying drones flying at a constant speed could be more economical than a self-driving car limited by the current road infrastructure.
  - bunderbunder 8y ago
    At least with current technology, electric makes the energy consumption problem worse rather than better, on account of the poor energy density compared to combustible fuel. The difference is manageable with cars, but with aircraft, where you have to take all that extra weight and pull it up in addition to moving it around, things get to be pretty stark.
- tim333 8y ago
  Solar/wind are getting cheaper, battery powered flying is starting to be a thing like the existing Alpha Electro https://electrek.co/2018/04/27/all-electric-trainer-plane-airworthiness-certification-faa-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/27/all-electric-trainer-plane-ai... and proposed airliners https://www.dezeen.com/2017/09/28/easyjet-will-fly-electric-planes-in-next-ten-years-news/ https://www.dezeen.com/2017/09/28/easyjet-will-fly-electric-...
paulsutter 8y ago
Disrupted yes but by tunnels. Tunnels will be vastly better than flying cars. Much faster, electric powered, and safer. City centers will be more more pleasant and quiet when surface traffic is all pedestrian. The manufacturing learning curve has been the path to lower costs through mass production and tunnels will be no exception. “Without tunnels we’ll be in traffic hell forever” -Elon Musk
- konschubert 8y ago
  You mean Subways?
  - allannienhuis 8y ago
    except you get to park the subway car in your driveway.
    - mcguire 8y ago
      Mmmm, underground traffic jams. I've seen that Dr Who episode.
      - allannienhuis 8y ago
        I was thinking of a system where you drive your car into/onto a single-vehicle pod/cart which you then drive off at the station near your destination. I thought that was the boring company's design; perhaps it was another company I was thinking of...
    - paulsutter 8y ago
      Tunnels will initially be shared pods[1]. Much better than existing subways because of higher speed, door to door travel[2], and closer stations (they'll be much cheaper). You could pay extra for a private pod to minimize transit time. You'd only want to bring a surface car for trips with rural or suburban legs on BOTH ends. Which seems relatively rare. [1] https://www.boringcompany.com/ https://www.boringcompany.com/ [2] dynamic routing means no waiting around to change trains
tim333 8y ago
>the big advantage is that there would be no existing rules created for human driving There are plenty of air traffic regulations to deal with

kayoone 8y ago

i doubt having hundreds or thousands of heavy vehicles flying above peoples heads is a good idea and will probably not go well with authorities.

al_ramich 8y ago
agree but it would have to be regulated with virtual/dedicated road lines relatively high up to prevent noise/light blocking issues. if centrally managed, the issues you describe could be minimized.

friendly_chap 8y ago

Given that we are probably heading into an economy where energy will get more and more expensive (at least temporarily, due to a potential oil crunch coming), not sure how flying will be an economical way of transport.

samsonradu 8y ago
Can you elaborate? Why might a oil crunch be coming?
- deathhand 8y ago
  Not parent but https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
  - slfnflctd 8y ago
    They've been talking about peak oil since the late 1950s, and just about every single prediction about it has been wrong. I got caught up in the hype about it 5-10 years ago, and it took a while before I realized it was mostly a garden variety doomsday cult. [Yes there is such a thing as peak oil, and we may have even already hit it, but it's not going to destroy civilization as some have loudly declared.] Gasoline consumption is not going up the way it used to, and there apparently is a whole lot more oil than a lot of people thought-- I'm guessing due to a combination of countries not providing correct numbers (it's a national security issue after all), new oilfield discoveries and new extraction techniques. Add in more efficient vehicles and alternative energy sources, and you quickly realize the worst that's going to happen is some gradually increased prices for products & services most closely tied to the current cost of fuel.
al_ramich 8y ago
electric would be the way it goes and you could argue that flying drones flying at a constant speed could be more economical than a self-driving car limited by the current road infrastructure.
- bunderbunder 8y ago
  At least with current technology, electric makes the energy consumption problem worse rather than better, on account of the poor energy density compared to combustible fuel. The difference is manageable with cars, but with aircraft, where you have to take all that extra weight and pull it up in addition to moving it around, things get to be pretty stark.
tim333 8y ago
Solar/wind are getting cheaper, battery powered flying is starting to be a thing like the existing Alpha Electro https://electrek.co/2018/04/27/all-electric-trainer-plane-airworthiness-certification-faa-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/27/all-electric-trainer-plane-ai... and proposed airliners https://www.dezeen.com/2017/09/28/easyjet-will-fly-electric-planes-in-next-ten-years-news/ https://www.dezeen.com/2017/09/28/easyjet-will-fly-electric-...

paulsutter 8y ago

Disrupted yes but by tunnels. Tunnels will be vastly better than flying cars. Much faster, electric powered, and safer. City centers will be more more pleasant and quiet when surface traffic is all pedestrian. The manufacturing learning curve has been the path to lower costs through mass production and tunnels will be no exception. “Without tunnels we’ll be in traffic hell forever” -Elon Musk

konschubert 8y ago
You mean Subways?
- allannienhuis 8y ago
  except you get to park the subway car in your driveway.
  - mcguire 8y ago
    Mmmm, underground traffic jams. I've seen that Dr Who episode.
    - allannienhuis 8y ago
      I was thinking of a system where you drive your car into/onto a single-vehicle pod/cart which you then drive off at the station near your destination. I thought that was the boring company's design; perhaps it was another company I was thinking of...
  - paulsutter 8y ago
    Tunnels will initially be shared pods[1]. Much better than existing subways because of higher speed, door to door travel[2], and closer stations (they'll be much cheaper). You could pay extra for a private pod to minimize transit time. You'd only want to bring a surface car for trips with rural or suburban legs on BOTH ends. Which seems relatively rare. [1] https://www.boringcompany.com/ https://www.boringcompany.com/ [2] dynamic routing means no waiting around to change trains

tim333 8y ago

>the big advantage is that there would be no existing rules created for human driving There are plenty of air traffic regulations to deal with