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Odds aren't changing at any point. It's as simple as you were initially sitting in a 1/3 "probability block" (the way I like to think of it)... ; and then you
by indigodaddy 8y ago
Odds aren't changing at any point. It's as simple as you were initially sitting in a 1/3 "probability block" (the way I like to think of it)... ; and then you shifted over to a 2/3 "probability block."
When or where are any odds changing?
- ColinWright 8y agoThe probability on the two you didn't open is 2/3. At that point you have no information as to which of those two doors holds the prize, so they each have probability of 1/3. Then the host opens one. The probability of the door opened holding the prize goes to 0. But the probability on the set of two is still 2/3, and so the probability of the door that is both unchosen and unopened goes to 2/3.