5 ms·

This, right here is our Pets.com moment. The TAM for a $2k bike + $40/month is hilariously small. Think about it, you would need a decent sized home to fit one

by dmode 8y ago

This, right here is our Pets.com moment. The TAM for a $2k bike + $40/month is hilariously small. Think about it, you would need a decent sized home to fit one of these bikes. That rules out 90% of the world who live on 1-3 bedroom apartments. Next, there isn't any new disruptive technology being introduced. It is a bike and can easily be replicated. The value of "community" is overrated. Lastly, their competition is FREE. You can go running and biking outside. It is nice out there. Even a gym subscription provides more value.

poulsbohemian 8y ago
I don't disagree at all... but I thought Juicero was our pets.com moment. Heck, I thought uber was our pets.com moment, as it was significantly more expensive than any taxi I'd ever taken. I'm still not convinced that my wifi-connected thermostat is actually saving me money over my previous ancient analog model, and that's significantly more useful still than so many other things crying out for my dollars. With each passing month, for each new startup promising us magic, I find myself wondering like Walter in the Big Lebowski if the whole world has in fact gone crazy. But, the question might be - ok, so yeah, it's a crazy valuation and raise for what it is, but it is actually going to bring down the economy like we are all foreboding? If WeWork or Peloton or even Bitcoin slide into the ocean with their out of whack financials, is it going to make a difference for my portfolio and retirement? So long as the answer is no, well... good for these folks padding their own wallet then, I guess. I'll stick to a walk around the block or the old fashioned "analog" bike.
- seattle_spring 8y ago
  > as it was significantly more expensive than any taxi I'd ever taken Either you don't live in the US or you have only taken Uber at 2x surge or higher.
  - poulsbohemian 8y ago
    It's actually ironic that your name is Seattle_Spring, because I'm talking specifically about a Seattle experience. Flying into Seattle and taking a taxi or using a town car service downtown was at least formerly, much cheaper than what I have gotten on Uber / Lyft, to the point I've just gone to using the light rail even though it is slower to my destination. $65 on Lyft vs. $35 by taxi / town car, from my most recent experiences.
  - TomK32 8y ago
    regular customers are getting ripped off as well https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16706164 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16706164
ryanwaggoner 8y ago
Lastly, their competition is FREE. You can go running and biking outside. It is nice out there. Even a gym subscription provides more value. And yet, people buy millions of stationary bikes, rowers, and treadmills. People actually commonly drive to the gym in amazing weather just to run on the treadmill. And people clearly disagree with you on Peloton and whether it has no value vs. riding a bike outside (which isn't free either, or even remotely the same experience), or they wouldn't have sold 250,000 of them. Also, you don't need much space for one of these bikes. I have multiple friends who have them in NYC apartments. I bet 80% of the US has enough space for one of these. The upfront cost is the bigger issue...and yet they've sold hundreds of thousands. Maybe people just value things differently than you?
scarface74 8y ago
I’m not at all saying that the Peleton is a great deal or at all interesting. But the average size of house is around 2500 square feet (http://www.aei.org/publication/new-us-homes-today-are-1000-square-feet-larger-than-in-1973-and-living-space-per-person-has-nearly-doubled/ http://www.aei.org/publication/new-us-homes-today-are-1000-s...) Apple just proved that you don’t have to cater to 90% of the world to be successful if you can cater to the top 10% As far as competition being “free”. That free competition also depends on weather and safety. “Community being overrated?” - the market value of Facebook kind of disproves that. I hate working out outside. In fact, I trained for an entire half marathon - and did pretty well all things considered, my time was faster outdoors - on a treadmill. I have a bedroom that I converted to a home gym with weights, a treadmill, an elliptical, and soon a mid range stationary bike. It’s well worth not having to schedule my workout at a time the gym is open or leaving the house. Once I stopped teaching fitness classes part time, I really didn’t feel inclined to go the gym. At home, I just go to the next room, turn the TV on and workout.

by dmode 8y ago

poulsbohemian 8y ago

I don't disagree at all... but I thought Juicero was our pets.com moment. Heck, I thought uber was our pets.com moment, as it was significantly more expensive than any taxi I'd ever taken. I'm still not convinced that my wifi-connected thermostat is actually saving me money over my previous ancient analog model, and that's significantly more useful still than so many other things crying out for my dollars. With each passing month, for each new startup promising us magic, I find myself wondering like Walter in the Big Lebowski if the whole world has in fact gone crazy. But, the question might be - ok, so yeah, it's a crazy valuation and raise for what it is, but it is actually going to bring down the economy like we are all foreboding? If WeWork or Peloton or even Bitcoin slide into the ocean with their out of whack financials, is it going to make a difference for my portfolio and retirement? So long as the answer is no, well... good for these folks padding their own wallet then, I guess. I'll stick to a walk around the block or the old fashioned "analog" bike.

seattle_spring 8y ago
> as it was significantly more expensive than any taxi I'd ever taken Either you don't live in the US or you have only taken Uber at 2x surge or higher.
- poulsbohemian 8y ago
  It's actually ironic that your name is Seattle_Spring, because I'm talking specifically about a Seattle experience. Flying into Seattle and taking a taxi or using a town car service downtown was at least formerly, much cheaper than what I have gotten on Uber / Lyft, to the point I've just gone to using the light rail even though it is slower to my destination. $65 on Lyft vs. $35 by taxi / town car, from my most recent experiences.
- TomK32 8y ago
  regular customers are getting ripped off as well https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16706164 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16706164

ryanwaggoner 8y ago

Lastly, their competition is FREE. You can go running and biking outside. It is nice out there. Even a gym subscription provides more value. And yet, people buy millions of stationary bikes, rowers, and treadmills. People actually commonly drive to the gym in amazing weather just to run on the treadmill. And people clearly disagree with you on Peloton and whether it has no value vs. riding a bike outside (which isn't free either, or even remotely the same experience), or they wouldn't have sold 250,000 of them. Also, you don't need much space for one of these bikes. I have multiple friends who have them in NYC apartments. I bet 80% of the US has enough space for one of these. The upfront cost is the bigger issue...and yet they've sold hundreds of thousands. Maybe people just value things differently than you?

scarface74 8y ago

I’m not at all saying that the Peleton is a great deal or at all interesting. But the average size of house is around 2500 square feet (http://www.aei.org/publication/new-us-homes-today-are-1000-square-feet-larger-than-in-1973-and-living-space-per-person-has-nearly-doubled/ http://www.aei.org/publication/new-us-homes-today-are-1000-s...) Apple just proved that you don’t have to cater to 90% of the world to be successful if you can cater to the top 10% As far as competition being “free”. That free competition also depends on weather and safety. “Community being overrated?” - the market value of Facebook kind of disproves that. I hate working out outside. In fact, I trained for an entire half marathon - and did pretty well all things considered, my time was faster outdoors - on a treadmill. I have a bedroom that I converted to a home gym with weights, a treadmill, an elliptical, and soon a mid range stationary bike. It’s well worth not having to schedule my workout at a time the gym is open or leaving the house. Once I stopped teaching fitness classes part time, I really didn’t feel inclined to go the gym. At home, I just go to the next room, turn the TV on and workout.