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I lived through the .com bubble and the last couple of years I feel warrant a lot of comparison. The tech bubble burst because of a 'spook' i.e. interest rate
by sonnyblarney 8y ago
I lived through the .com bubble and the last couple of years I feel warrant a lot of comparison.
The tech bubble burst because of a 'spook' i.e. interest rate change and massive bubble in the regular markets that needed to be cooled. So the smart money fled first, the dumb money later, and things became difficult.
The underlying economic impetus these days is reasonable - but it could be fudged any moment by Trump's 'trade wars' (I'm not saying anything about him or the policy, just that there is risk), or it could be revealed that a marginal shift in rates really does have a bad effect.
The all of the surplus 'lift' in the market evaporates and all of this gets wiped out.
ICO's in particular are a really bad sign.
CEO's are currently trying to get in on the IPO market while they can - with companies like Sonos popping on float day even with not particularly strong fundamentals.
It's not that startup land is bad, it's just that fundamentals don't justify the valuations.
These Peloton bikes and their services are way too expensive for mass market, and I'm not confident. It seems like one of many fitness fads to me.
Note: this is series F. At $4B Billion. This behoves the question, why not public? Maybe because any amount of public scrutiny wouldn't bear such a lofty valuation? It makes you wonder who's writing these big cheques. This is not Uber or AirBnB which have naturally massive markets and cashflows. These are $2K + $50 / month stationary bike / status symbols.
- meritt 8y ago> It seems like one of many fitness fads to me I agree but I think the fitness industry itself is inherently based upon dietary and exercise fads. If it wasn't a fad, they probably wouldn't be raising capital so easily. Guessing these investors assuming there'll be a greater fool?
- jlarocco 8y agoYeah, way too expensive is right. That $2k for the bike is enough to buy a nice mid-range bike and a nice indoor trainer, with the added benefit of being able to bike outside, if desired. And I believe there are tons of streaming workouts free on Youtube. Not to mention that a lot of people already think >$1k for a bike is crazy, so $2k for a stationary bike seems like it'll be a hard sell, but what do I know? I'm sure there's more to it, and they add more value than just that, but like the OP, I'm really skeptical.