4 ms·

It is way more difficult to figure it out than you think. There are plenty of "local minimums" (or false bottoms), that go a bit back up then goes down again.

• wahern 8y ago
  What you say is a truism. But the Great Recession really was an exception. Not literally--you couldn't know for sure. But being able to purchase a beautiful (round dining room!) 2-bedroom condo in a completely renovated building in Nob Hill for $300k or buy Ford stock for $0.99 were as close to "sure thing" opportunities as there ever has been or ever will be. And if they didn't pan out? You'd have worse things to worry about because it would have been Mad Max times... Some may be skeptical about my examples (especially if they weren't paying attention at the time), but I assure you they were no-brainers. The reason many people didn't get rich during the time was because most of the people who normally would have had the money and inclination to make the investments were completely illiquid. And everybody else was simply scared. The flip side of irrational exuberance is irrational fear. I didn't have enough money for the condo. But I bought 1000 shares of that Ford stock my first year of law school, and sold it at a 10x gain (!) the last year of school to pay for all my living expenses in lieu of more loans.