5 ms·

I think you were extremely lucky to time the market correctly. It is impossible to know when it is the "Peak" or the "Bottom"

imh 8y ago
Its impossible to know bottom, but its possible to know "probably relatively low." During the big recession when work was harder to find, everyone knew prices were low and it would be a decent time to buy, it's just that fewer people could afford to, hence the low prices.
wahern 8y ago
The Great Recession will likely be the only period in our lifetimes where anyone could reasonably time the bottom of the market. I invested as much as I could but wasn't in a position to buy real estate, though I spent many evenings 2009-2011 trawling through Trulia and Zillow lamenting the missed opportunities.
- ironjunkie 8y ago
  It is way more difficult to figure it out than you think. There are plenty of "local minimums" (or false bottoms), that go a bit back up then goes down again. Same thing is happening also for local maximum. People try to time the top of the market. People thought it was in Summer 2015, and lately around January//February 2018.
  - wahern 8y ago
    What you say is a truism. But the Great Recession really was an exception. Not literally--you couldn't know for sure. But being able to purchase a beautiful (round dining room!) 2-bedroom condo in a completely renovated building in Nob Hill for $300k or buy Ford stock for $0.99 were as close to "sure thing" opportunities as there ever has been or ever will be. And if they didn't pan out? You'd have worse things to worry about because it would have been Mad Max times... Some may be skeptical about my examples (especially if they weren't paying attention at the time), but I assure you they were no-brainers. The reason many people didn't get rich during the time was because most of the people who normally would have had the money and inclination to make the investments were completely illiquid. And everybody else was simply scared. The flip side of irrational exuberance is irrational fear. I didn't have enough money for the condo. But I bought 1000 shares of that Ford stock my first year of law school, and sold it at a 10x gain (!) the last year of school to pay for all my living expenses in lieu of more loans.

imh 8y ago

Its impossible to know bottom, but its possible to know "probably relatively low." During the big recession when work was harder to find, everyone knew prices were low and it would be a decent time to buy, it's just that fewer people could afford to, hence the low prices.

wahern 8y ago

The Great Recession will likely be the only period in our lifetimes where anyone could reasonably time the bottom of the market. I invested as much as I could but wasn't in a position to buy real estate, though I spent many evenings 2009-2011 trawling through Trulia and Zillow lamenting the missed opportunities.

ironjunkie 8y ago
It is way more difficult to figure it out than you think. There are plenty of "local minimums" (or false bottoms), that go a bit back up then goes down again. Same thing is happening also for local maximum. People try to time the top of the market. People thought it was in Summer 2015, and lately around January//February 2018.
- wahern 8y ago
  What you say is a truism. But the Great Recession really was an exception. Not literally--you couldn't know for sure. But being able to purchase a beautiful (round dining room!) 2-bedroom condo in a completely renovated building in Nob Hill for $300k or buy Ford stock for $0.99 were as close to "sure thing" opportunities as there ever has been or ever will be. And if they didn't pan out? You'd have worse things to worry about because it would have been Mad Max times... Some may be skeptical about my examples (especially if they weren't paying attention at the time), but I assure you they were no-brainers. The reason many people didn't get rich during the time was because most of the people who normally would have had the money and inclination to make the investments were completely illiquid. And everybody else was simply scared. The flip side of irrational exuberance is irrational fear. I didn't have enough money for the condo. But I bought 1000 shares of that Ford stock my first year of law school, and sold it at a 10x gain (!) the last year of school to pay for all my living expenses in lieu of more loans.