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China has been predicted to collapse any day now since 2001 when I started paying attention in highschool. It hasn't but people always have an explanation on w
by antt 8y ago
China has been predicted to collapse any day now since 2001 when I started paying attention in highschool.
It hasn't but people always have an explanation on why this time it's different.
Dictatorships have a remarkable ability to completely ignore the market and coerce it to do their bidding. You only need so many public executions before people stop doing things you don't like at scale.
What they don't have is the ability to indefinitely force hungry soldiers to shoot hungry peasants. China is no where near that level.
- duxup 8y agoThey can ignore the market ... for some time. Venezuela hasn't worked out. Turkey seems like they're on the edge of the cliff right now. The lira was already having serious issues due to massive spending before sanctions were announced.
- antt 8y agoYou first have to ask the question, can the Chinese government ignore the market longer than the market can ignore the Chinese government. The answer so far is no and not only in China. Once the global market is reconfigured in such a way that it funnels benefits back to China they no longer ignore it. Much the same way the Portuguese reconfigured the Asian spice market in the 16th century to their benefit for the next two centuries.
- rdlecler1 8y agoAgree—things tend to only get really bad when people can eat. In fact I can’t believe that Venezuela is as stable as it is—I would have expected full civil war by now.