5 ms·

Discuss: There are no more Google/Facebook size opportunities on the web.

12 points by sidder 16y ago

I feel like all the big 1+ billion online opportunities have already been grabbed, and there's nothing big remaining. Does anyone else feel this way?

meatsock 16y ago
Finding a way to filter silly questions off the internet is easily a multibillion dollar idea.
- rick_2047 16y ago
  umm... interesting. Maybe someone can extend that and actually solve the problem of spam.
antidaily 16y ago
Of course there are.
marssaxman 16y ago
A scant two years ago, someone might have said that there are no more MySpace-sized opportunities on the web.
- skinnymuch 16y ago
  Facebook was already bigger than Myspace two years ago.
icey 16y ago
user: sidder created: 15 minutes ago Don't feed the trolls.
- sidder 16y ago
  I didn't have any intent to troll, I just created this account to ask this question. I think it's possible to have a meaningful discussion about large opportunities in the internet's future.
  - icey 16y ago
    Alright, I'll take you at your word. The question is kind of ridiculous though; there are new billion dollar companies created pretty regularly; what makes you think that's stopped happening?
    - sidder 16y ago
      The opportunities for creating tremendous value may move elsewhere, and the web may simply become a utility. It became a lot harder to create a profitable car company after the automotive industry matured.
alanl 16y ago
No way, the next big thing is always just around the corner. The world will change, facebook and google will become old and their successor(s) will come from somewhere they don't expect. Look at how Microsoft surprised IBM, then Google suprised Microsoft and now Facebook look like they might threaten Google's empire.
- skinnymuch 16y ago
  I'm not trying to be snarky or anything. I'm honestly curious as to how Facebook threatens Google?
brk 16y ago
Everything worth inventing has already been invented...
- Andrew_Quentin 16y ago
  until someone invents something else worth inventing.
Detrus 16y ago
Only when I think about other industries as examples. In theory the more people fussing around some industry, the more tools they create for it, the more possibilities there are and so more money can be made. That's been true for scientific and technological progress overall, but individual industries stagnate. I understand the feeling, you're out of ideas or whatever, but there are actually more possibilities now than there were when Googleface was starting out, in theory. In practice industries stagnate for non-technical, social reasons. Too many people join, create too much fuss, the best people might leave and create a boom elsewhere.
cletus 16y ago
I'm sure people said there were no more Google sized opportunities before Facebook too...
- rick_2047 16y ago
  as far as I know, yahoo had captured the "portal" business, so "they" must have also said "There are no yahoo sized opportunities left"
andjones 16y ago
I remember reading articles 1998/1999 saying that the search problem had been solved and no major new search engines would enter the market. Google proved that wrong. There are many 1+ billion opportunities. Think of the ideas that started Google / Facebook - Pagerank and a class hand-book. Had these ideas been explained to me as starting successful billion dollar companies, I would have laughed. Not to say that that all laughable ideas create billion dollar companies. However, I think the laughable part is the interesting bit. Maybe we find these ideas humorous because they force us to look at the world in a different way.
- skinnymuch 16y ago
  How is the concept of ranking websites based on links a laughable idea? We already knew search would be worth billions at that point and the methodology of ranking sites during the bubble was awful.
Parabola 16y ago
You probably would have said the same a few years ago, but Youtube emerged as a recent Google/Facebook sized opportunity. Someone could displace Google/Facebook in their core competence. For example, DuckDuckGo and Diaspora. Apple is even getting into the ad game. There is huge money to be made in developing web-based office and enterprise applications that Google and Microsoft are barely touching. Casual gaming. I'm pretty sure Zynga et al are making more money off of Facebook than Facebook is.
bobf 16y ago
Groupon has become a 1+ billion company in less than 17 months. See Forbes article: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0830/entrepreneurs-groupon-facebook-twitter-next-web-phenom.html http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0830/entrepreneurs-groupon...
coryl 16y ago
In technology, billion dollar markets and opportunities are usually only recognized after they've landed. Its hard to predict or foresee markets, and even if you can, you have no idea what will work and what won't. There are actually billion dollar opportunities opening up all the time with every new platform. Look at how many companies the Facebook API spawned; Zynga is valued at billions of dollars and is 3 years old. They make dinky flash games for gods sakes. Playdom was acquired for around $800 million by Disney. iPhone and Android apps have made millionaires out of small teams of developers. The makers of Tap Tap Revenge, a series of iPhone games, were grossing millions in revenue. There are ALWAYS opportunities. Obviously fewer billion dollar ones, but who cares otherwise.
- saurik 16y ago
  I second this. Back in 2000 I had a friend who had this stupid website called "GroupNetwork". Every time he brought up his site (and he brought it up a lot, as it kind of defined his entire life at the time) we'd all make fun of it for a while before moving on. Specifically, you would create an account on it, and then had access to a rather limited blog mechanism (you could download much better blogging software) and a relatively lame photo gallery (why would I trust this site with my photos? it isn't even good at browsing them). You could then make these things called "groups" in which you could add your friends, assuming they also had an account (and how likely would that be, right?). The worst part was that he had this "API" by which third parties could write new applications that plugged into this framework... sounds great, but it meant that all the third party apps had to use HTTP requests (dude: slow) to get access to the data. He tried to make it feel better by making all of the queries based on SQL (insecure? seriously: stupid). OMG was that a stupid idea. ;P
SerpentJoe 16y ago
Every day the old technologies get a little more penetration and the world at large is a little more ready for the next one. There's no market for Twitter if the wrench hasn't yet been invented, but that doesn't mean there never will be. Technology wave N is here; why shouldn't anything in technology wave N+1 be worth a billion dollars?
- schn 16y ago
  Can you prove this using induction?
lipaktest 16y ago
I guess Twitter and Quora are the next Facebook/Google.
gallerytungsten 16y ago
I think there are more opportunities than ever before.
ippisl 16y ago
One question you could ask is :are there any big industries that hasn't used the full potential of the web yet ? the answer is clearly yes: just look at education,health-care, web-video,human-resources and there are probably others. Another question : what kind of new technologies have the potential to enhance the web ? telepresence,AI, augmented-reality and 3d-printing are probably just a few. every enhancement could easily open new markets.

12 points by sidder 16y ago

I feel like all the big 1+ billion online opportunities have already been grabbed, and there's nothing big remaining. Does anyone else feel this way?

meatsock 16y ago

Finding a way to filter silly questions off the internet is easily a multibillion dollar idea.

rick_2047 16y ago
umm... interesting. Maybe someone can extend that and actually solve the problem of spam.

antidaily 16y ago

Of course there are.

marssaxman 16y ago

A scant two years ago, someone might have said that there are no more MySpace-sized opportunities on the web.

skinnymuch 16y ago
Facebook was already bigger than Myspace two years ago.

icey 16y ago

user: sidder created: 15 minutes ago Don't feed the trolls.

sidder 16y ago
I didn't have any intent to troll, I just created this account to ask this question. I think it's possible to have a meaningful discussion about large opportunities in the internet's future.
- icey 16y ago
  Alright, I'll take you at your word. The question is kind of ridiculous though; there are new billion dollar companies created pretty regularly; what makes you think that's stopped happening?
  - sidder 16y ago
    The opportunities for creating tremendous value may move elsewhere, and the web may simply become a utility. It became a lot harder to create a profitable car company after the automotive industry matured.

alanl 16y ago

No way, the next big thing is always just around the corner. The world will change, facebook and google will become old and their successor(s) will come from somewhere they don't expect. Look at how Microsoft surprised IBM, then Google suprised Microsoft and now Facebook look like they might threaten Google's empire.

skinnymuch 16y ago
I'm not trying to be snarky or anything. I'm honestly curious as to how Facebook threatens Google?

brk 16y ago

Everything worth inventing has already been invented...

Andrew_Quentin 16y ago
until someone invents something else worth inventing.

Detrus 16y ago

Only when I think about other industries as examples. In theory the more people fussing around some industry, the more tools they create for it, the more possibilities there are and so more money can be made. That's been true for scientific and technological progress overall, but individual industries stagnate. I understand the feeling, you're out of ideas or whatever, but there are actually more possibilities now than there were when Googleface was starting out, in theory. In practice industries stagnate for non-technical, social reasons. Too many people join, create too much fuss, the best people might leave and create a boom elsewhere.

cletus 16y ago

I'm sure people said there were no more Google sized opportunities before Facebook too...

rick_2047 16y ago
as far as I know, yahoo had captured the "portal" business, so "they" must have also said "There are no yahoo sized opportunities left"

andjones 16y ago

I remember reading articles 1998/1999 saying that the search problem had been solved and no major new search engines would enter the market. Google proved that wrong. There are many 1+ billion opportunities. Think of the ideas that started Google / Facebook - Pagerank and a class hand-book. Had these ideas been explained to me as starting successful billion dollar companies, I would have laughed. Not to say that that all laughable ideas create billion dollar companies. However, I think the laughable part is the interesting bit. Maybe we find these ideas humorous because they force us to look at the world in a different way.

skinnymuch 16y ago
How is the concept of ranking websites based on links a laughable idea? We already knew search would be worth billions at that point and the methodology of ranking sites during the bubble was awful.

Parabola 16y ago

You probably would have said the same a few years ago, but Youtube emerged as a recent Google/Facebook sized opportunity. Someone could displace Google/Facebook in their core competence. For example, DuckDuckGo and Diaspora. Apple is even getting into the ad game. There is huge money to be made in developing web-based office and enterprise applications that Google and Microsoft are barely touching. Casual gaming. I'm pretty sure Zynga et al are making more money off of Facebook than Facebook is.

bobf 16y ago

Groupon has become a 1+ billion company in less than 17 months. See Forbes article: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0830/entrepreneurs-groupon-facebook-twitter-next-web-phenom.html http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0830/entrepreneurs-groupon...

coryl 16y ago

In technology, billion dollar markets and opportunities are usually only recognized after they've landed. Its hard to predict or foresee markets, and even if you can, you have no idea what will work and what won't. There are actually billion dollar opportunities opening up all the time with every new platform. Look at how many companies the Facebook API spawned; Zynga is valued at billions of dollars and is 3 years old. They make dinky flash games for gods sakes. Playdom was acquired for around $800 million by Disney. iPhone and Android apps have made millionaires out of small teams of developers. The makers of Tap Tap Revenge, a series of iPhone games, were grossing millions in revenue. There are ALWAYS opportunities. Obviously fewer billion dollar ones, but who cares otherwise.

saurik 16y ago
I second this. Back in 2000 I had a friend who had this stupid website called "GroupNetwork". Every time he brought up his site (and he brought it up a lot, as it kind of defined his entire life at the time) we'd all make fun of it for a while before moving on. Specifically, you would create an account on it, and then had access to a rather limited blog mechanism (you could download much better blogging software) and a relatively lame photo gallery (why would I trust this site with my photos? it isn't even good at browsing them). You could then make these things called "groups" in which you could add your friends, assuming they also had an account (and how likely would that be, right?). The worst part was that he had this "API" by which third parties could write new applications that plugged into this framework... sounds great, but it meant that all the third party apps had to use HTTP requests (dude: slow) to get access to the data. He tried to make it feel better by making all of the queries based on SQL (insecure? seriously: stupid). OMG was that a stupid idea. ;P

SerpentJoe 16y ago

Every day the old technologies get a little more penetration and the world at large is a little more ready for the next one. There's no market for Twitter if the wrench hasn't yet been invented, but that doesn't mean there never will be. Technology wave N is here; why shouldn't anything in technology wave N+1 be worth a billion dollars?

schn 16y ago
Can you prove this using induction?

lipaktest 16y ago

I guess Twitter and Quora are the next Facebook/Google.

gallerytungsten 16y ago

I think there are more opportunities than ever before.

ippisl 16y ago

One question you could ask is :are there any big industries that hasn't used the full potential of the web yet ? the answer is clearly yes: just look at education,health-care, web-video,human-resources and there are probably others. Another question : what kind of new technologies have the potential to enhance the web ? telepresence,AI, augmented-reality and 3d-printing are probably just a few. every enhancement could easily open new markets.