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Full disclosure: I work for one of Google's major competitors in this space. > Well, Waymo is doing it right, and everybody else is nowhere. ... has been said
by skgoa 8y ago
Full disclosure: I work for one of Google's major competitors in this space.
> Well, Waymo is doing it right, and everybody else is nowhere.
... has been said for >5 years and looks ever less true as time passes. Remember when Google was supposed to introduce a finished fully automated driving system in 2017? Google had a very impressive technology demonstrator back in 2012, but they have had endless trouble turning that into a viable product. Turns out "let's just throw ridiculous hardware at the problem" leads to issues when you have to build millions of the thing. Even if there system were perfect already, which it isn't, it is not fit for integration into production vehicles. That's why Google has had very little success trying to sell their system to car manufacturers.
Meanwhile, their competitors are progressing along the "bottom-up" path to full automation quite rapidly. Many basic driving tasks are essentially solved already and will filter down to production vehicles over the next few years. I can't know where exactly Google is right now and obviously I can't state where we are, but I fully expect that the different paths to full automation will converge in a few years. Several companies will have systems that are "good enough" for 90% of common driving use cases. Whether Google's system is at that stage already is unknowable, though their testing seems to indicate that it is not. But if it is, Google are still in a race to "miniaturize" it into a viable product before the competing (already viable) products reach the "good enough" level of performance.