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What does this mean for car ownership/insurance companies/auto dealers/mechanics/public transportation/etc? Has anyone seen a roadmap that includes how other i

What does this mean for car ownership/insurance companies/auto dealers/mechanics/public transportation/etc? Has anyone seen a roadmap that includes how other industries are affected(disrupted)? Should we think hard about selling our cars now before they are de-valued or become more costly to drive? Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 - Oslo, March 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM&t=639smost https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM&t=639smost

arebop 8y ago
If I owned a big auto insurer like Geico, I'd be interested in diversifying into other kinds of risks. Of course Berkshire does have a broader insurance portfolio but still I wonder if this is part of the motivation for them to team up with Amazon and JPM on a new approach to health insurance.
QML 8y ago
I don’t see how caring for a Waymo or a Cruise fleet would be different from that of a city fleet. A city fleet is basically the set of vehicles owned and operated by a city government, mostly for use by its employees but could also be interpreted to include public transportation. A caveat is that the Waymo fleet would obviously be significantly bigger and thus more complex to handle, but I’m sure there’s a physical analog of “sharding” or dividing up fleets into geographical sets.
xyzzy123 8y ago
One thing I haven’t seen much discussion of is the value of the data that fleets of these cars are going to throw off. It’s possible that the value of this data could subsidise ride costs. They basically become a ubiquitous street level surveillance system and for this to be effective you want a lot of them driving around. Some examples: Detailed local weather mapping. Potential for near real time street view. Very detailed sensing of traffic flows and trends, can also estimate pedestrian traffic. Could use the sensors to track non self driving cars by alpnr. Locate stolen or wanted vehicles. Automated reporting of traffic infringements, dangerous driving or accidents. Can estimate patronage of almost any business, via rides to destination, counting carparks, local foot traffic etc. Can sell data on infrastructure conditions (pothole location, missing signs, etc) to cities. Lots of other detailed profiling on riders, consumers, businesses. For example can automatically distinguish between blue collar bars and cocktail lounges. Almost certainly lots lots more I couldn’t imagine. It’s the data!
- ntsplnkv2 8y ago
  All of these things can be done already without self driving cars.
  - maccam94 8y ago
    I mean, you could do everything you do on a smartphone before smartphones came out. The consolidation of tools into a single ubiquitous device is what really changed the game.
    - ntsplnkv2 8y ago
      That consolidation of tools couldn't happen UNTIL the smartphone came out though. Again, none of those things require self driving technology to put onto a central unit in a car. Add some cameras and sensors that collect data. A lot of this already happens with things like OnStar and other insurance schemes.
      - maccam94 8y ago
        But those sensors aren't going to be installed on every car without a strong core value proposition. Self-driving is a feature that can justify the investment in those sensor installations. Additional use cases can piggy-back on them later.
        ntsplnkv2 8y ago
        You've very clearly demonstrated the strong core value proposition. > Self-driving is a feature that can justify the investment in those sensor installations. Most of these sensors on their own are pretty cheap for simple data collection. Again, most of this stuff is already tracked, take google maps, or onstar, as examples.
- binomialxenon 8y ago
  Ubiquitous surveillance is the last thing we need, just the next step in turning the US into an authoritarian nightmare. I don't know who would want to live in a world where robo-cars would call the cops on you for jaywalking or minor non-dangerous traffic violations. On a side note, the Google Play Services running in the background on most smartphones have already been mapping traffic hotspots and measuring business patronage by time of day.
kbaker 8y ago
That's such a great talk by Tony Seba. Highly recommended for anyone who hasn't seen it or some of the other ones he's given. I imagine that the traditional car rental companies will be the first to provide services. They already have fleet maintenance, post-ride clean-up/turnaround, and demand forecasting/repositioning down, all that's left is to setup a subscription model. Uber could get there but I kinda feel that they will implode if they make an attempt to transition to self-driving cars, from a huge driver backlash or strike. Though I really want to see most what happens to all the parking lots and parking garages which will slowly disappear. Hopefully they can be transformed into green spaces.

arebop 8y ago

If I owned a big auto insurer like Geico, I'd be interested in diversifying into other kinds of risks. Of course Berkshire does have a broader insurance portfolio but still I wonder if this is part of the motivation for them to team up with Amazon and JPM on a new approach to health insurance.

QML 8y ago

I don’t see how caring for a Waymo or a Cruise fleet would be different from that of a city fleet. A city fleet is basically the set of vehicles owned and operated by a city government, mostly for use by its employees but could also be interpreted to include public transportation. A caveat is that the Waymo fleet would obviously be significantly bigger and thus more complex to handle, but I’m sure there’s a physical analog of “sharding” or dividing up fleets into geographical sets.

xyzzy123 8y ago

One thing I haven’t seen much discussion of is the value of the data that fleets of these cars are going to throw off. It’s possible that the value of this data could subsidise ride costs. They basically become a ubiquitous street level surveillance system and for this to be effective you want a lot of them driving around. Some examples: Detailed local weather mapping. Potential for near real time street view. Very detailed sensing of traffic flows and trends, can also estimate pedestrian traffic. Could use the sensors to track non self driving cars by alpnr. Locate stolen or wanted vehicles. Automated reporting of traffic infringements, dangerous driving or accidents. Can estimate patronage of almost any business, via rides to destination, counting carparks, local foot traffic etc. Can sell data on infrastructure conditions (pothole location, missing signs, etc) to cities. Lots of other detailed profiling on riders, consumers, businesses. For example can automatically distinguish between blue collar bars and cocktail lounges. Almost certainly lots lots more I couldn’t imagine. It’s the data!

ntsplnkv2 8y ago
All of these things can be done already without self driving cars.
- maccam94 8y ago
  I mean, you could do everything you do on a smartphone before smartphones came out. The consolidation of tools into a single ubiquitous device is what really changed the game.
  - ntsplnkv2 8y ago
    That consolidation of tools couldn't happen UNTIL the smartphone came out though. Again, none of those things require self driving technology to put onto a central unit in a car. Add some cameras and sensors that collect data. A lot of this already happens with things like OnStar and other insurance schemes.
    - maccam94 8y ago
      But those sensors aren't going to be installed on every car without a strong core value proposition. Self-driving is a feature that can justify the investment in those sensor installations. Additional use cases can piggy-back on them later.
      - ntsplnkv2 8y ago
        You've very clearly demonstrated the strong core value proposition. > Self-driving is a feature that can justify the investment in those sensor installations. Most of these sensors on their own are pretty cheap for simple data collection. Again, most of this stuff is already tracked, take google maps, or onstar, as examples.
binomialxenon 8y ago
Ubiquitous surveillance is the last thing we need, just the next step in turning the US into an authoritarian nightmare. I don't know who would want to live in a world where robo-cars would call the cops on you for jaywalking or minor non-dangerous traffic violations. On a side note, the Google Play Services running in the background on most smartphones have already been mapping traffic hotspots and measuring business patronage by time of day.

kbaker 8y ago

That's such a great talk by Tony Seba. Highly recommended for anyone who hasn't seen it or some of the other ones he's given. I imagine that the traditional car rental companies will be the first to provide services. They already have fleet maintenance, post-ride clean-up/turnaround, and demand forecasting/repositioning down, all that's left is to setup a subscription model. Uber could get there but I kinda feel that they will implode if they make an attempt to transition to self-driving cars, from a huge driver backlash or strike. Though I really want to see most what happens to all the parking lots and parking garages which will slowly disappear. Hopefully they can be transformed into green spaces.